Snow 2022-2023

If this thread already exists, my apologies.

I just saw a winter weather advisory for our area and west from 4pm-7am (11/15-11/16). Looks like up to 2” of wintery mix.

Consigliere
Nov '22

GRRRRRR


I'll take the under for Hackettstown.

Route 46
Nov '22

Start brining the roads asap

Philliesman Philliesman
Nov '22

Re: Snow 2022-2023

yeah, really just rain for us, looks like... ground is still to warm for any coating to last...

But, winter has begun.

JeffersonRepub JeffersonRepub
Nov '22

I'll take just watching the flakes. It's okay if they warm up on the ground. Just watching it from inside is fine with me. But, a few inches would have looked nice.

DogDayAfternoon
Nov '22

Snow is pretty until December 26th. After that it becomes s**t!

JerseyTom JerseyTom
Nov '22

People should find joy in snow….if you don’t you will not have as much joy in your life but you will still have snow.

Lexi
Nov '22

Says the girl that probably isn't shoveling the driveway, walkways, decks...


"People should find joy in snow…"

Tell that to the people of Buffalo with 3-6 FEET of snow forecast over the next couple days.

ianimal ianimal
Nov '22

Lexi, you're so right!

ole' timer
Nov '22

True, Lexi. So true, as long as everyone you know is safe, it's great to look at.

Just saw Buffalo can get up to 6 feet on the news, so they might want more than hot chocolate. Yikes!!!

DogDayAfternoon
Nov '22

I’m with Lexi as long as it’s just a little bit. Anything more than a foot and I’m over it.

3wbdwnj 3wbdwnj
Nov '22

When I lived outside Buffalo, we always went to school. Dad may not have been able to get out of town, but the town was always clear.

In a six footer, someone will invariably get onto the highway, get stuck, keep the engine running without clearing the tailpipe, and well, you know the rest. We said, but it's Buffalo....

We prayed for colder weather so the Lakes would freeze; then we could send the stuff straight to NJ :>) That's one reason I say Feb is the cruelest month of all in NJ: especially if the Lakes are hard-frozen over.

We lived on the lake for awhile and often the Lake effect went right over us, that was cool. I think the football stadium is built right on the first ridge from the Lake, that can be brutal for both wind and snow. Great games to watch!

Babbit Babbit
Nov '22

Frozen Great Lakes have nothing to do with nj snow.

Philliesman Philliesman
Nov '22

Maybe not, but liquid Great Lakes do

3wbdwnj 3wbdwnj
Nov '22

I will check back here on the "find joy in the snow" after the first storm of the season that has people sitting on Route 80 for hours..

JrzyGirl88 JrzyGirl88
Nov '22

Re: Snow 2022-2023

.....

JeffersonRepub JeffersonRepub
Nov '22

That’s what the woman said.
Tell that to the boy named Josh.

emerald
Nov '22

I agree with Lexi. If you hate snow, why not consider moving south? I personally love snow. I'm sad that we get so little as compared to decades ago. The ski resorts have had some rough years recently. Winter hiking is the best ..... no bugs, less people, and incredible views from the mountaintops. I spend most of my winter weekends in the Catskills, Adirondacks, Green Mtns in Vermont, and White Mtns in NH. Unfortunately, my job keeps me in NJ 2-3 days minimum during the week. If you enjoyed hiking, snowshoeing, skiing (both downhill and x-country), and snowmobiling like we do, you'd love the snow too!

And yes, I shovel my driveway and sidewalk here in NJ, and snow-blow my driveway and sidewalk in upstate NY (our second home). I'll often have my AirPods rockin' some good tunes and consider it a good workout. I'm not a kid, just turned 61, but still keep going. (Elderly folks or those with health issues should not be shoveling snow. Paying a neighborhood youth is a better idea, .... if you can find one that wants to work!)

But I do agree that when places like Buffalo get hit with that many feet of snow in a short period of time, it creates a lot of headaches, injuries, and likely some loss of life. I'd never wish that on anyone. Hoping that area makes it through ok.

Rob Durana Rob Durana
Nov '22

I went to college in upstate NY right on the border of Quebec. In my experience, the places that get the most snow are the best at dealing with its removal. We once had a 38” storm that ended at 7am and the roads were completely clear by noon. All of them.

By contrast I flew down to Atlanta in the early 2000s to visit a friend and they had a 3” storm that shut the entire city and surrounding suburbs down for 2 days. My friend got two days off from work. They had farm equipment and front end loaders in the highway plowing. Quite funny to see southerners totally paralyzed by what we’d consider a dusting. Lots of pick up trucks but none have 4wd down there. Just a bunch of rwd rigs with wide tires and lift kits fishtailing down the road. We passed a bunch of them in my buddys FWD Corolla. Funny sight indeed

Consigliere
Nov '22

We flew into the Seattle area years ago on our way to Victoria BC. It was snowing when we landed. Everything shut down. They usually don't get weather like that. Cars couldn't get out of the steep parking garage under the hotel. We got stuck for 2 days. We ended up taking a seaplane to Victoria since my husband had to be at a client. Crazy.
I love the snow. Thank goodness I can still shovel and don't mind doing it.

Blackcat123 Blackcat123
Nov '22

"I went to college in upstate NY right on the border of Quebec."

SUNY Plattsburgh?

ianimal ianimal
Nov '22

Possible snow squalls this evening.

JeffersonRepub JeffersonRepub
Nov '22

Like I said, we always went to school. A five footer, maybe a day off but probably not.

When the Lakes freeze, the colder air crosses fast, is not slowed by picking up moisture. making lake effect, and it streams farther southeast in more punishing cold effects from nj to md.

In Buffalo, when we saw the break in Feb, in NJ, at the same time we feel we are still freezing our ass off. Least it seems that way as I moved around. Also drier up there and less raw about then more humid nj.

Once I walked a drift right onto our first floor roof. No plows n blowers, we dug ourselves in a family event. All the families would be out; it was kinda fun.

The highway from erie to buffalo is really deadly since built on first ridge. That’s where the 80 car pileups are cux it dumps right off the lake. Farmers finally won one to move the highway away from good farming on the lake. We lived on the lake for awhile and the ice drifts are amazing. Sometimes as big as a house but covered in sand and looking like beach. Beautiful and dangerous at the same time. Can be over the beach or lake, hard to tell.

Buffalo winters are amazing. I love a good snow but hate the dangerous ones. This one has already killed, there has been thunder snow, so hard to say it’s a good one. But if the power holds, and there’s no ice, little wind, fewcdrifts, bring on the fluffy feets.

Babbit Babbit
Nov '22

Haha you got it, Ianimal.

Babbit, a “five footer” doesn’t even compute in my mind. How one storm can drop 60” of snow is just incredible. I had two freinds that went to UB and I REFUSED to visit them in the winter hahaha.

Edit: Oops, my above comment should have said 28” storm.

Consigliere
Nov '22

20 hrs @ 3 inches per = 5 feet. That’s a good one for sure. I probably never saw one of those. If it drifts, that’s really tough.

When the lakes freeze, fools try to walk to Canada only to find the ice is tossed up, they end up walking in canyons of ice, can’t see the horizon, and if lucky, the copters find them before they find a weak spot. In Spring when lake is half frozen, sometimes we’d look out and see nothing but ice, later nothing but water as the flow covered half the lake but moved north and south.

Weather is very unpredictable on those lakes. Erie is pretty shallow so really can whip up in a good blow.

Babbit Babbit
Nov '22

Look like a possible 2” for this coming Thursday. I know we’re a ways out from then and could get 0” or more than 2” but thought I’d leave that info here.

Consigliere
Dec '22

Heck- inch or 2 possible for NWNJ tomorrow.


Looks like a good chance for some accumulating snow Thursday the 22nd. 4-6" as of now.


OP, I don’t see anything on my app for Thursday the 22nd but do see a possible 2” for tomorrow, Thursday the 15th. Looks like it will be from around noon until 3pm.

Consigliere
Dec '22

Weather Underground:

Thursday 12/22
56% / 1.2 in

Variably cloudy with snow showers. High 39F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 60%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected

Thursday Night 12/22
58% / 7.6 in

Occasional snow showers. Low 27F. Winds SE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 60%. 5 to 8 inches of snow expected.

Mr. Resident Mr. Resident
Dec '22

Thanks, Mr Res. Looks like our first legit storm of the season. So is that 5-8 total or 5-8 plus the 1-3 earlier for a total of 6-11?

Consigliere
Dec '22

At this point, it's looking like an all rain event this Thursday/Friday...

ianimal ianimal
Dec '22

And then a temp nosedive.


Yep, maybe some mixed precip during Thursday evening but looks like 95% rain. Bummer I was looking forward to a white Christmas

Consigliere
Dec '22

Latest weather report I saw said Rain Thursday into Friday, Flash freezing Friday Morning, followed by a possible 2-3 inches of snow. It will be too cold to not stick immediately. So maybe a light dusting of snow... :)

Sirya
Dec '22

Showing exactly 0 degrees actual at 0650. Brrrrrr.

OnTheEdge OnTheEdge
Dec '22

This icy weather was a real bummer for us for the Holidays.
Hopefully the New Year will bring us better weather.


Long range computer models have no significant snow for NW NJ at least thru mid- January 2023. So far Hackettstown has only had a paltry 1.5 inches of snow all winter.

KMC77
Dec '22

all winter? you mean all 7 days of winter so far.
plenty of winter left


CBGB my thoughts exactly. We have three more months of snow potential…


Well said 3 months left and why worry about it if it isn’t happening? When it’s going to snow it will snow and we will be very warned to go get French toast ingredients.

Michigan Michigan
Dec '22

What a dud of a winter this is turning out to be. It’s 1/19 and the ten day forecast doesn’t show one daily high at or below freezing. I’m glad this is the year I decided to teach my kids to ski *eye-roll*. It’s the end of January and the local mountains have 1/3 of their trails open and those are melting fast with this rain.

Consigliere
Jan '23

I'm not complaining. A couple of snowstorms are fine. I for one am glad it's been relatively mild. But we still have a long way to go: February and even March are snow months.

JeffersonRepub JeffersonRepub
Jan '23

My motorcycles, metal detectors, scuba gear, and landscaping projects are eagerly waiting for spring.


If it never snows ever ever again, I’d be very happy

Hadenough Hadenough
Jan '23

N.J. weather: Up to 5 inches of snow in forecast for Wednesday winter storm

https://www.nj.com/weather/2023/01/nj-weather-up-to-5-inches-of-snow-in-forecast-for-wednesday-winter-storm.html

Bug3
Jan '23

Snow totals for Wednesday don't agree....what is the best quess now?

Coachmm Coachmm
Jan '23

Re: Snow 2022-2023

Right now EPAWA is saying 2"-4" before changing to sleet.

JeffersonRepub JeffersonRepub
Jan '23

EPAWA’s forecast seems to line up with my phone’s weather app which is calling for 3.1” of “mixed.” By 5pm it looks to turn back to rain so that’s at least positive for the rush hour commuters.

Consigliere
Jan '23

Love it when schools make early decisions on weather issues so we can secure solid childcare. Delay, closing, early dismissal, full day?

Greg A
Jan '23

Hackettstown Schools are closed tomorrow.

Greg A
Jan '23

Bummer. Thought I'd wake up to hearing plows all night. Nothing as of 9 am.

DogDayAfternoon
Jan '23

Precipitation wasn't supposed to start until 2: 00pm. That looks to still be accurate.


Greg A closing school tomorrow is "stupid" ahead of the day. How are our children of today going to learn responsibility of the future of their life?

Bernie Bernie
Jan '23

Greg, ohhh. Yesterday, news I listened to had said start at 7 am, then 11 pm last night - no wonder! Still like to watch some flakes come down. Have a good day.

DogDayAfternoon
Jan '23

I hate to admit it DDA, I guess I wouldn't mind a nice snow event as well. Note that is one, singular event per winter! LOL


Bernie,
I’m worried about the values and character of the next generation too, but on the list of the top 1,000 things that will influence their responsibility, closing school the day before a storm wouldn’t even make the list.

The schools are worried about the liability of a bus sliding off the road and injuring kids. I don’t blame them. If there’s a 90% change of a mid-day storm only 12 hours away, I’d close too.

Consigliere
Jan '23

Storm?? hahhah you call that a storm?


Haha yeah that was wimpy. Next one on the radar is Thursday 2/2.

Consigliere
Jan '23

Best winter ever.

Roywhite Roywhite
Jan '23

Hackettstown schools are closed based on the decision of the police. Due to the fact that it is a walking district, and the storm would have occured while students would be walking home, it made perfect sense. My daughters districts dismissed early, and the middle school left in the middle of the storm. Busses were stuck in the snow, and kids were on them for over an hour.

kelleo22 kelleo22
Jan '23

Kelleo, what district are your daughters in?

3wbdwnj 3wbdwnj
Jan '23

Ditto Roywhite: Best Winter ever to my way of thinking.

Mrs. Pipes Mrs. Pipes
Jan '23

What a winter indeed. Forecasted high of 50F today. Yep, I’ll be washing my car outside on January 30th.

Consigliere
Jan '23

Looks like we may not have any significant snow for the rest of winter. The forecast through 2/15 shows most days in the 40s and 50s. After 2/15 we have, what, another 4 weeks of winter left? I know some are thrilled about this but as someone with young children I feel sorry for them. The snow tubes Santa brought for Christmas may stay deflated until next year :/

Consigliere
Feb '23

Love it. I have a lot of yard work to do

danny zucko danny zucko
Feb '23

My sense is that, more often than not, the biggest snows come in March. I've never looked at any actual data, but since my wife and I moved from NC (first to PA and then to NJ) it just seems like there have been a handful of big storms in January or February, but many in March. I could be wrong....

Monty Monty
Feb '23

I think historically, February is the big month, but March is usually good for a decent one too. The best part about March storms is the angle of the sun is such that the snow melts relatively quickly.

ianimal ianimal
Feb '23

If I recall, we had a large snow event a few days or so prior to the St. Patrick's day parade in Hackettstown a couple of years ago. DPW needed to use front end loaders to clear space for spectators to view the parade. I guess it ain't over till it's over....


There is no doubt we can get a biggun still, even a cold snap from heck, but won't last long now. Looks like we pretty clear till end of Feb. Usually I make a call about 2.15, but that precludes a biggun surprise even if I call it: OVER.

Sixty eight years on this planet and never saw a flash freeze like we just had. One day of frigid following by a day at 20 and my thawed ground was hard frozen even after a day at 40 degrees. Creek too plus the ice was lifted like six inches off the surface which is really high, really cold, really fast.

But yeah, sun has already moved a lot. Much higher and think we adding over 2 minutes of sun a day now, and growing.

I follow the ice pack on the great lakes since I feel it affects us greatly, especially in FEB. If frozen, our chances for cold air increase. If open, our chances of lake effect, yes, even here, increase.

It's probably open, or will be by this week, but El Ninory or whatever has a prevailing pattern not conducive to lake effect.

SO ---- if we get one, it's a Noreaster running up the Appalachians meeting something from the Ocean. So far, it's all been west of the Delaware for the most part, but even there, we've had some collide with other Ocean weather and cause some havoc.

That's what I am watching for: a cold snap with a Noreaster that meets some Ocean crap while moving a bit East from our prevailing pattern. Often these are just dumpers without the winds and killing cold. Would be nice to get a nice snowfall like that about now, I hate bad weather (winds, power outages, etc.), but love the snow.

And it looks like we will have a record-breaking warm winter no matter what. Or close to the record.

Babbit Babbit
Feb '23

Appreciate your analysis, Babbit. I can’t comment on Great Lake ice pack and nor’easters as I don’t have anything to add there but I do agree with calling it (like you said, save for one freak event). To me and my kids, a total bust of a winter. Oh well.

Consigliere
Feb '23

Daily highs from (today) 2/8-2/17:
48, 52, 53, 41, 41, 50, 51, 55, 57, 48. This is truly remarkable for mid February.

Consigliere
Feb '23

LOVE IT

JeffersonRepub JeffersonRepub
Feb '23

Re: Snow 2022-2023

Me too!


Re: Snow 2022-2023

The dogs love it!

JeffersonRepub JeffersonRepub
Feb '23

JR - Love seeing the pups. We miss our dog.

Calico696 Calico696
Feb '23

Is that a “large cent” Josh? Can’t tell if the date is 1827 or 1897 but ‘27 makes more….cents (see what I did there?)

Consigliere
Feb '23

Yup, 1827. Found a new spot with that, a British coin from the 1700s that the date is worn away, just came back from there right now with a barber dime, an Indian head penny, and some other unidentifiable stuff.

So happy for the warm weather. I’ve seen (and shoveled) enough snow in my life.

Somebody else agrees with me because as I am standing in my yard with the dog type in this a motorcycle just went by my house.

No way I would ride now even if it was 70°, too many potholes, gravel, salt on the road.


Sounds like a honey hole of a spot, Josh.

Consigliere
Feb '23

Calico... there's only one cure for that... ;)

JeffersonRepub JeffersonRepub
Feb '23

Next chance for snow looks like Monday/Tuesday.

D-ManPV D-ManPV
Feb '23

Fingers crossed. I at least want to use the gas in my snowblower’s tank before the end of winter. Used it once in November or December whenever we had that 3” stairs and haven’t run it since.

Consigliere
Feb '23

Here's an early look from Weather Underground:

Monday Night 02/27
99% / 4.4 in

Watching a potential winter storm. Snow in the evening will become a mix of wintry precipitation overnight. Low 29F. Winds ENE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precip 100%. Snow and ice accumulating 3 to 5 inches.

Mr. Resident Mr. Resident
Feb '23

That forecast has been punted already for a rain/snow mix with no accumulation.


Re: Snow 2022-2023

Lol. As I've said on this forum many, many times, go with the Weather Rock. Weather Rock is never wrong!


Update from Weather Underground
Tomorrow Night 02/2797% / 5.7 in
Watching a potential winter storm. Periods of snow. Low near 30F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 100%. Snow accumulating 5 to 8 inches.

Another possible storm on Friday.

Mr. Resident Mr. Resident
Feb '23

NOAA is saying 3-5 inches. I guess we'll find out!

JeffersonRepub JeffersonRepub
Feb '23

I will give the absolute 1005 correct answer after I read the Rock! LOL


**That should read100%


Re: Snow 2022-2023

Snow map from EPAWA.

Calico696 Calico696
Feb '23

Still looking like 5”-8”. A different weather app has it a rather precise 7.2”
“To the weather rock!” :-)

Consigliere
Feb '23

Snowing at my house....


No where near 7” at my house. The kids only had a two hour delay. Next storm looks like Friday. Possible 3.5” or so and looks to be a mid-day event.

Consigliere
Feb '23

Probably looking at 3-4". For this year it is a pretty big snow event LOL.


Re: Snow 2022-2023

Well, this came out of nowhere...

2"-4" for our area tonight?

JeffersonRepub JeffersonRepub
Mar '23

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
303 PM EST Mon Mar 6 2023

NJZ007-009-PAZ062-070915-
/O.EXA.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.230307T0000Z-230307T1200Z/
Warren-Hunterdon-Northampton-
Including the cities of Washington, Flemington, Bethlehem,
and Easton
303 PM EST Mon Mar 6 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4
inches.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Warren and Hunterdon. In Pennsylvania,
Northampton.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The snow will have
ended prior to the morning commute, but untreated roads could
still be slick.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

JeffersonRepub JeffersonRepub
Mar '23

I just saw salt trucks out and had no idea this was even predicted. Hopped on here and saw your post, JR. Crazy. Out of nowhere

Consigliere
Mar '23

Re: Snow 2022-2023

One mo' 'gain....

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
157 PM EST Thu Mar 9 2023

Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,
Jim Thorpe, and Stroudsburg
157 PM EST Thu Mar 9 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO
10 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches.
Amounts may locally exceed 6 inches across the highest terrain.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Sussex, Warren and Morris. In
Pennsylvania, Carbon and Monroe.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

JeffersonRepub JeffersonRepub
Mar '23

One more possibly Monday as well. Winters trying to pretend like it's been here all season.

Yesimpc Yesimpc
Mar '23

Fizzle, fizzle..

ianimal ianimal
Mar '23

It alway was supposed to start after 8ish.

Yesimpc Yesimpc
Mar '23

No, I'm talking about the forecast... looks like an inch and a half, tops.

This Afternoon
Rain, mainly after 3pm. High near 41. Southeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tonight
Rain before 8pm, then rain and snow between 8pm and midnight, then snow after midnight. Patchy fog between midnight and 2am. Low around 31. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Saturday
Rain and snow likely before 11am, then a chance of rain between 11am and 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 42. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

ianimal ianimal
Mar '23

Re: Snow 2022-2023

Yeah, they downgraded it. EPAWA has 1"-3", but slushy. Just an inconvenient mess it sounds like to me

JeffersonRepub JeffersonRepub
Mar '23

Hopefully most of the accumulation will be on grassy surfaces. The temperature is still above freezing.


Thank goodness it's supposed to miss us! Less salt and plowing equals less tax money spent!

Richie
Mar '23

"Thank goodness it's supposed to miss us! Less salt and plowing equals less tax money spent!"


Let us know when you receive your "no snow rebate check" LOL

JeffersonRepub JeffersonRepub
Mar '23

Monday/Tuesday (13/14) looking potentially very big. Please share what you’re hearing.

4of4
Mar '23

The two things I’m seeing from my phone-installed weather apps is:

1. 1.35” of wintery mix
2. “A dusting of snow possible”

Could you please share your source for the “potentially very big” event?

Consigliere
Mar '23

1/2” of rain

Philliesman Philliesman
Mar '23

Ok, weather underground (no, not the far-left militant organization from the 60’s, the other one) notes a 40% chance of 2-4” and a 30% chance of 4-8”.

Consigliere
Mar '23

Every NYC news channel and website.
Nj.com
And pretty much every news source I saw today.

NJ may or may not get the heavy snow, but a serious nor’easter is coming.

4of4
Mar '23

For anyone that thinks no snow = less money spent in taxes. I have a very close family friend that works on the state road department. They are working 12+ hour days sitting in their trucks doing nothing getting paid overtime. “Just in case” there is snow. They need to spend the money regardless of snow or else they won’t get as much allocated next budget. There simply is no “saving” tax money. It will be spent

Makomiller1984 Makomiller1984
Mar '23

NWS has issued a briefing on the coastal storm: https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf

At this point only 75 miles of storm track separate us from 24" of snow.


What will fall tonight into tomorrow is totally insignificant. The concern is Monday/Tuesday.
Take a view of my trusted source. He references 3 models at around the 10:50 mark. Yikes. We are getting something.
https://youtu.be/-vHfSQdQRBg

3wbdwnj 3wbdwnj
Mar '23

OP - exactly. We could have very little or a whole lot. It's weather, not chemistry...so many people don't understand that a few miles could mean a huge difference.

3wbdwnj
EPAWA ...I appreciate his evaluation of models, but it has gotten to the point that is all he does. He does not FOREcast anymore. He flat out said yesterday that he'd put out a snow map closer to the storm.
Uh, whaaat?
That's not FOREcasting seriously.
So yes, his videos are great right on the cusp of the storm, but he won't risk making predictions more than a day in advance anymore.

Interesting to see exactly what OP was saying - it's a narrow distance between a little and a lot.

4of4
Mar '23

4of4, to each his own, but making actual predictions for a snow storm/nor'easter with a bunch of moving parts more than a day or out is simply a wild guess. Throw a dart. He’s not into the hype. And he’s not into guessing or putting out false information. If you want that, use another source for your weather.
In a nutshell, it’s gonna be a mix of rain and snow, and not much is going to stick, compared to what falls.
Today’s video shows what is expected for the rest of the week.

3wbdwnj 3wbdwnj
Mar '23

Both of my weather apps now say 6-8 and 4-8. One of them has a winter storm warning

Consigliere
Mar '23

Finally!!! We finally need milk and bread!!!

JeffersonRepub JeffersonRepub
Mar '23

> making actual predictions for a snow storm/nor'easter with a bunch of moving parts more than a day or out is simply a wild guess. Throw a dart<

It’s called forecasting. Sometimes forecasts don’t resolve due to those moving parts. I don’t hold that against forecasters. As I always say: it’s weather, not chemistry.

Winter storm warnings issued for 6-8” for Hackettstown.

4of4
Mar '23

I don’t know what’s changed in the past few hours but now it looks like it’s all rain with maybe a dusting of snow.

Consigliere
Mar '23

Everyone give up on weather.com’s app. Try AccuWeather, weather underground, many many others.

4of4
Mar '23

Right Consig, nothing has changed. 4of4 is looking for forecasts that say it’s gonna snow. ;)

3wbdwnj 3wbdwnj
Mar '23

Seems odd to me that the winter storm warning (6 - 8 inches of snow) doesn’t match up with the forecast.

D-ManPV D-ManPV
Mar '23

It's prob becayse they put out the warning before newer models came out. This storm also has a super sharp cut off.

Yesimpc Yesimpc
Mar '23

NWS does winter storm warnings on a county-wide basis. If Blairstown or Hardwick is going to get 6-8 inches, we'll be included in the WSW. You have to read beyond the "headline"... typically, if we are in a WSW and Hunterdon doesn't have so much as an advisory, this is what's going on.

ianimal ianimal
Mar '23

Re: Snow 2022-2023

EPAWA todays map, definitely not 6”-8”

JeffersonRepub JeffersonRepub
Mar '23

IDK, NOAA just updated their forecast this afternoon, IDK WTH is going on LOL...

Tonight
Rain before midnight, then rain and snow between midnight and 3am, then snow after 3am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 31. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tuesday
Rain and snow before 2pm, then snow likely between 2pm and 3pm, then rain and snow likely after 3pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. Breezy, with a northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

JeffersonRepub JeffersonRepub
Mar '23

Re: Snow 2022-2023

I've said it a hundred times before. Listen to the Rock! It's the only solid information out there. No second guessing. Forecasting is just fodder to pass the time. LOL


I think they’re throwing a dart, Jefferson.
;)

3wbdwnj 3wbdwnj
Mar '23

Ok, here’s my final call according to everything i’ve read plus the EPAWA map: 1-8”

Consigliere
Mar '23

Boy, do I miss Bryan.


...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDTTUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Sussex, Warren and Morris counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact mainly the Tuesday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain or a mix of rain and snow will change to snow by later this evening. Some heavier snow is possible late tonight and Tuesday morning. The greatest snow totals will be in the higher elevations mainly above 1000 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. &&

LibertyThinker LibertyThinker
Mar '23

Looks like the downgraded the totals for us

Jason Jason
Mar '23

Yeah. 1/4” of rain instead of 1/2.

Philliesman Philliesman
Mar '23

2-8" means we're getting basically nothing. Delayed all school openings already. And it may or may not be rain. Seems legit.

Forcefed4door Forcefed4door
Mar '23

"All school openings" delay forcefed4door? we did not here anything.

Greg A.
Mar '23

Greg, my bad. In the 07853 area. It's a joke. Atleast let us wake up to see what's on the ground first, ya know?

Forcefed4door Forcefed4door
Mar '23

Fingers crossed for NO snow. I’ve got things to do and places to be.

Yes, super sharp cutoff. We might get nothing. They might be cross country skiing in Sussex Co.

4of4
Mar '23

Re: Snow 2022-2023

You guys are funny with all your posts about all those 5 to 8 inches, pasting and copying reports that end up being wrong. All I do is follow the weather channel app. It’s almost never wrong. It predicted no snow. woke up this morning to no snow. The picture I posted is from a couple days ago not today lol

Hadenough Hadenough
Mar '23

Biggest bust since "Dewey Defeats Truman".

Woke up to not only no snow, but dry roads and dry car.

Weather guess is absolutely all it is.

The Rhyme Animal The Rhyme Animal
Mar '23

we have more than that in allamuchy and it's still snowing - lightly - roads around me look wet but not snowed

4catmom 4catmom
Mar '23

Location and elevation are big for this storm. Could get slippery today so don't drive around like it is Summer.


computer models never had a grasp on this. most locals called for 1-3” max well ABC7 did

RB123 RB123
Mar '23

6" in Budd Lake. 3.5" in Long Valley. 3" just north of Hackettstown Hospital.
Western Warren County - nothing.
Still snowing everywhere for a few more hours.

Definition of sharp gradient. A few miles makes a big difference.

Every app/site will get it right without a few hours of a weather event. I'm interested in the ones who will take a chance and actually predict.
A guy named Mark Margavage on Facebook called this event on Feb 28.
Of course, he's not always right, but he does actually FOREcast and not just use that rock meme like most others. :-)

4of4
Mar '23

Well, that’s it, HLers. Looking ahead, this winter, and this thread are done. See you in the 2023-2024 snowfall thread

Consigliere
Mar '23

Didn't get to fire up the snowblower even once.

JeffersonRepub JeffersonRepub
Mar '23

Thank god.

Didn't even touch the shovel.

Love it.


I'm way too old to enjoy snow any more. While it's pretty to watch and makes the world look pristine for a while, it has to be moved off driveways and sidewalks and roads, and I'm really not up to that chore. And my retirement budget has little room for constant plowing bills. So I'm pleased so far that this winter has been a mild one. I know there is still a lot of March left, and it did "come in like a lamb", so it could be a rough "going out like a lion" yet to come. Also, I wouldn't bet against a surprise storm in April.
So I'm keeping my fingers crossed. And I'm glad I didn't move to California like I thought about many years ago.

Lonesome Dove Lonesome Dove
Mar '23

Consigliere - over and out!

4of4
Mar '23

I am going to pull the devils tail … I believe winter in wrapping up and there are no major storms heading our way for the next 2 weeks … but you never know but this winter was a dud for snow lovers but we got enough rain instead to help the very hot and dry summer we just had.

LibertyThinker LibertyThinker
Mar '23

While the ten day out forecast (weather guess) is showing normal temps and no storms, that would take us to the end of March. Would anyone be shocked if our biggest snowfall comes between March 23-April 1st?

I almost expect it, along with a colder than normal April. Nature has a funny way of evening the score, so our moderate winter will be paid for in some way, either a cold spring or scorching summer.

The Rhyme Animal The Rhyme Animal
Mar '23

My guess would be the scorching summer. I just don’t see having any more snow until December.

Consigliere
Mar '23

I'm pretty sure the weather predictions have gotten way worse with better technology. Take us back 10 years when it was more accurate

Forcefed4door Forcefed4door
Mar '23

I've been saying the same, Consigliere: extremely hot and dry. Hopefully the acquifers got enough over fall/winter/spring.

4of4
Mar '23

"I'm pretty sure the weather predictions have gotten way worse with better technology. Take us back 10 years when it was more accurate"


Agree 100%

And it's not "climate change" causing the inaccuracy...

JeffersonRepub JeffersonRepub
Mar '23

And it's not "climate change" causing the inaccuracy...

What is causing the inaccuracy?

dodgebaal dodgebaal
Mar '23

Looks like winter 2022-2023 is over and it was a disappointment for all the snow lovers … well not to worry I am sure we are due for a couple of really bad winters in row in the coming years … enjoy the spring … enjoy the summer and fall …

LibertyThinker LibertyThinker
Mar '23

Supposedly should be a warmish summer, El Nino this time.

Babbit Babbit
Mar '23

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