2017/18 Winter Weather
It’s about to get cold and they say the pattern for storms is going to increase. I love the first snowfall but that’s about it. We normally fill our oil tank 2 times throughout the season and have been enjoying the milder winters
Dima I've seen plenty of predictions for a relatively mild, wet winter...have not seen anything on the more extreme side.
Localchef 
Darrin 
positive I only want snow on weekdays so I get a snow day at work. ;-)
Other than that, no snow!
Let the snow(ball) fight begin!!!!!!
Calico696 I think I read that this will be a La Nina winter... so hopefully mild? Like Dima, I like the first snowfall, and snow on Christmas is nice. Aside from that, I wish I could send it all Darrin's way.
Speaking of mild weather - I saw a bat tonight driving in the driveway. I don't ever recall seeing one in December before. I thought they migrated, or hibernated... or otherwise made themselves scare? Can't imagine he's finding a lot of insects on the wing for dinner? Wondering if this is an unusual sighting this time of year.
Rebecka 
Lamppost 
Molly
Strangerdanger Rebecka, I was actually surprised to see insects on my patio door screen last night. It's been so warm, they probably haven started to migrate or hibernate yet, and still need to eat.
I'm assuming you meant *diving* in your driveway? ;)
3wbdwnj I just had to re-read my sentence. LMBO! Yup. The bat was driving. Really... you'll have to take me at my word.
Ok... yes, I meant to write that while I was driving, I noticed a bat... who was flying/swooping, doing his hunting/bat-things, lit by my headlights. I haven't noticed insects still out, but I guess there must be if he was out hunting them. In any case, thanks for the funny visual!
" I saw a bat tonight driving in the driveway. I don't ever recall seeing one in December before."
saw one pulled over for, I assume, weaving erratically.
Whip 
CBGB Boots on the Ground Report.... Group as a guys who spends a lot of time in the woods.. I have taken notice of a larger Hickory Nut drop this year... I have also seen a large but not enormous acorn drop from some Oak tress in the Warren County area ... From my observation over the past 10 years I will take a early season guess on the Winter weather for this year... I will say it will be colder then last winter... as the early winter has just started to show up and cold is creeping in... as for Snow Fall ... We have had little to no snow the past 2 winters and I will guess we will be seeing more snow this season then the past 2 ... I will toss this out there ... we will have 5 storms in Hackettstown area of at least 9 inches or more.... but and this a big but... I see more coastal storms that could just miss us and it would then be dumping lots of snow in Somerset County area ...Note... the Oak trees here dropped a lot of nuts which has been the trend for a heaver snow fall ... I am sure I will get blasted for this post but I do like make early predications on the trees and wild life searching for winter food...
LibertyThinker 
justintime Good info LT, the woods can tell you a lot. My question is, did you see your shadow or not? ;-)
I guess it's time to start the "first snowfall prediction" thread.
Pigpen Calico696 ... pretty funny... nope did not see my shadow... I walk into the woods when it is dark and I don't walk out till it is dark...
We have several hickory trees, with a few along the very long driveway. The nuts were crazy this year. I would sweep them off daily for awhile. The ones hitting the house were the worst.
Blackcat 
GC From what I've read the trees don't "predict" the weather as many seem to believe, but are reacting to the stresses of the seasons before they drop the acorns, etc. Since we had very odd weather with the long chilly & rainy Spring, but then are now in about a 5-6" deficit in average rainfall for the year, it would make sense that they're reacting to the stresses that would perhaps have led to trees dying off.
Phil D. There was an all black wooly worm on my front steps last week. I think the prediction is for a severe winter when they are all black.
I've seen many Woolly hiking the past few weeks.. all look like this...for what it's worth.
That cold front at 1:30AM this morning definitely meant business. The howling wind and rain woke me up and I'm not a light sleeper.
Vic I am not up on the details but there is the potential for several events over the next week or so at least. I only check the GFS and everything is a miss on that but I have read that other models are showing accumulations (nothing major at least so far). Bottom line be ready for changeable forecasts in the near term. Even down here we are expected to see some wet snow mix in.
Bryan_NC 
LenaK Sorry where are my southern manners lol? Hello everyone. Hope all is well up there. Lovin it down here. I did finally make it to czigmeister last month. Great place all around. The owner is very cool.
Hi Bryan! Good to hear from you and nice to know you are still keeping us in mind for potential winter storms. Glad you made to Czig. Let me know next time you are up and we will catch up for a beer.
RAS 
Iris Looks like accumulating snow for Saturday unfortunately looks lighter over western areas with more to the south and east. Stay tuned for any changes
Thank you for remembering your old neighbors up North, Bryan, and for your winter weather heads-up!
Group... These coastal storms... as we will be getting this weekend will be the trend this winter... as I had said above I have seen a heavier nut drop from tress closer to the coast and not as heavy in Htown area... lets see if my environmental observations are true this year....
All about moisture, and the moisture is from the ocean and not predicted to be as heavy inland. But, we shall see...
iJay It's actually snowing in Charlotte now. First time before xmas since I've been down here.
If Liberty Thinker's prognostication parameters are correct, look for the heaviest snowfalls to occur inside a certain vacant Today Show office....
ianimal LibertyThinker
Going by your prognostication, here in Southern Sussex County (Hopatcong) only 15 miles away I should have tons more snow than Hackettstown since It's been one of the top 3 acorn drops in the past 17years! My deck had no inch left uncovered and I was afraid I'd have to record them by the inch.
I still believe the scientists are correct that the amount of acorn drop has more to do with the past season's growing conditions or lack of same rather than the trees magically knowing how much food the animals will need for the winter and/ or because they are somehow "afraid" they'll die and send out seeds to make sure they're replaced by "baby" trees.
That said, we still don't know in what ways things may be "connected" in the Universe, so I can't and won't say that the old "idea" or "superstition" is
completely false either. One never knows. Let's just say that I've read that they've tracked the "Old Farmers' Almanac" and other similar ones and their record(s) aren't that good, nor is Punxy Phil and his ilk, so I'm not holding my breath that they're true either.
Let's see whether science or legend wins out this year;-)
Phil D... thank you for the polite reply... as I have said I try to track environmental conditions and snow fall and you are correct on some winters we have little to no snow fall when the acorns have been like marbles on the forest floor ... simply cant walk... so since this forum is for fun and exchanging ideas and information.. so I am just sharing my thoughts and lets see were they land...
Bryan_NC has track change looks to huge the coast more this morning and not pushing in land as predicated yesterday...
Actually track looks a bit more east to me. Amounts were trending up late yesterday but I would say down a bit now. Still looks like 2-4 though.
Looking out my window here in Independence, it looks like 0-0.
Funny, Hack. PD sent out a snow emergency warning last night.
Reggie Voter 
4catmom LThinker using acorn populations as a harbinger of winter weather is obviously just plain nuts. Everyone knows if you're looking for the organic winter forecast that you have to go woolly bear.
"The Woolly Bear caterpillar has 13 distinct segments of either rusty brown or black. The wider the rusty brown sections (or the more brown segments there are), the milder the coming winter will be. The more black there is, the more severe the winter. " https://www.almanac.com/content/woolly-bear-caterpillars-and-weather-prediction
I have followed the woolly for more than a decade and I can say it's pretty accurate in a horoscope-sort-of-way. I mean, when does the 13 segments of winter begin, and what's a segment... What's harsh and not so harsh and what does that mean for snow?
Supposedly I have also heard that with the "13 segments of winter," you can time by the woolly bear. Think this year is 2 harsh, 7 not harsh, 4 harsh. Of course, without closer examination, I could have that backwards. That's about what it said last year too. Bear in mind, the woolly does not forecast snow. Just harsh or not harsh.
There's another legend that the direction the woolly bears travel bears notice too: south for colder (get out of town) and north for warmer (hey, it's not so bad up here).
From my personal research, for over a decade the WB was pretty accurate with two different forecasts in two different states. Yes, the colors were different some times between the states. Then in the 11th and 12th year, the woolly failed miserably. In the 13th year, like the Templars of old, all the local woollys were found squished. (kidding). So I stopped watching.
Good luck with your forecast and your winter and next year ---- be careful where you walk, you might off a weathermoth.
LibertyThinker
You're quite welcome.
The way I look at it is there are many things on this earth that scientists have no demonstrable scientific way of proving or disproving. In the 60's before weather satellites we had no clue as to ocean temperatures and things such as "El Nino" or "La Nina" (sorry, can't find the right key to put the proper tilde over the 2nd "n" in each). The supposed "old wives' tales" sometimes have been proven to have a basis in science, so how can I claim some theoretical "upper ground" when I haven't seen, nor can quote scientific studies that I can quote to back me up. Not only that, but I have no idea whether or not someone will come up with what amounts to a quantitative and qualitative analysis on why your acorn and observational meteorology or the "WM" meteorology may have at least some basis in fact.
John S. Mill essentially stated once that no argument nor line of reasoning, etc. should be taken as either absolute truth or falsehood as there is quite often at least a small amount of falsehood in what many may feel to be the complete and utter truth and some small amount of truth to what we may take as a complete and utter falsehood. We just have to hold everything up to the light and try to ascertain what we can in the best manner possible;-)
Friday's (tomorrow) coastal storm is trending west into south jersey. Keep an eye on it.
Heads up for anyone traveling. South Jersey is going to see some accumulating snow later today.
I just passed a guy on Russling clearing the snow from his car using a gas-powered leaf blower.
I don't know who you are sir, but I really, really like your style.
I used my leaf blower all the time when it was a light fluffy snow and no more than 4 inches or so.
kb2755 That is actually so smart. Never would have thought of it. And the guy looked like he was having fun. As opposed to breaking a sweat and pulling a muscle trying to reach the snow on the center of your car roof...
I've done it, but only works with light and fluffy stuff. The storm from earlier in the week was a little heavy and deep for a snowblower I think, but yesterday's stuff, no problem.
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