Stocks
How have we not started a stock market thread. Will start with a survey. In 2021 the stock market will rise or fall.
My answer - Rise
As much as I think some stocks will bust, overall I think the market will continue to rise.
CraftBeerBob It's slow going so far. My 401K only has a .1% return rate so far since Jan 20th...
Metsman You should change your allocations... mine is up about 4.5%. But that's since January 1st... why would you pick January 20th as your starting point?
ianimal Seems like January 1st would be a more logical start date (year over year).
Anyway, market seems more than a little bit “frothy” to me.
Hope passage of COVID bill creates a little bump, but that may already be priced in.
In a managed fund, recently lowered my risk tolerance for 2nd time in 18 months.
Willing to give up some gains at this point.
Stymie ianimal I think you know why I picked the 20th. If I go from the Jan 1st it's 3.1%. And actually an update... from the 20th until yesterday it is now .5%. Still a big difference.
Jimbo 
Strangerdanger I would be very careful on how much money you place in the market. Alot of people smarter than me are ringing alarm bells about a major crash happening within the next few months.
OP 
bflat4u I've made more money than I ever have in the market over the past month. Mostly biotech stocks.
I changed jobs just after Thanksgiving, so I don't even pay attention to my new 401k yet because it doesn't matter in $$ terms.
If you're worrying about returns 7 weeks into the new year you're going to drive yourself batty. Market was on fire until March last year, tanked, and then wound the yup on fire and then some.
You can make solar panels Metsman.
MeisterNJ If the topic is stocks and the values are from 401k's ---- > not sure how you do that, much less is it smart. Do you really have 100% of your 401K in stocks? Best thing I ever did was dump the 401k and roll my own, tax deferred of course. Rolled my pension too, that may not have been as smart.
If I use my entire Fidelity portfolio: I am down .5% for January and up 3.87% in Feb. But that’s stocks, bonds, muni’s, etf’s and blends.
If I just look at my pure, not mutual driven, equity portfolio ---- I made 11% in the last half of last year so 22% annualized, as in realized profit, not paper and unrealized. Since then, realized over 6.6% from Jan 1 with another 14.2% profit guaranteed on two stocks for a total of 10.79% realized/guaranteed since Jan 1. Have about 30% of that nut still at risk, and that’s still underwater a bit, like a point or so. Bought both VZ and CVX before Buffet, I was so proud. But he missed XOM which I have bought and sold twice since it plummeted. Too expensive now so I got CVX instead.
I was a value trader but with this portfolio I am swing trading on a lot of growth stocks so I've cycled through the money about two times in 8 months. No dogs in the kennel (long term losers) except Heinz/Kraft --- how can you not make a buck on mac n cheese in a pandemic) which pays 4.25% on dividends and go figure, pfizer which was a loser before they solved covid --- go figure. Everything else should come back with the market highs n lows.
As to the expected market crash or the undue influence of govt actions. We got the stimulus, the debt, the pandemic, and the economy. While the stimulus/debt is a wild card as in have we gone too far, I doubt it will crash the market or supercharge the economy --- hasn't in the past, much of it, mine included, is in savings and failed to hit the economy. I see no change in this one until Spring. But will investors pull out of treasuries --- always the question but the answer seems the same ---- where would they go? So, the market may crash and the stimulus may be blamed, but if it does, probably many other causes. IMO.
I figure the economy will begin to heat up with the weather and the vaccine deliveries. Thus, my fossil fuel play, we all be driving, who’s gonna fly… I have sold my covid stock for a cool 50% profit except for the dog Pfizer, and I am thinking of picking up some restaurant stock next as I see a very, very good Spring eating out. Think "i'm gonna party like it's 1999" and that's where I am plunking down some growth stock money soon. Again, IMO and please don't listen to me....
Jimt1058While my Fidelity portfolio went down a whopping .09%; it could fall more tomorrow as the mutual prices lag. However since I use the trailing stop loss, I actually picked up a few hundred on my "14.2% profit guaranteed" which is now over 15%. Go figure, I am surprised that at a 600 point DOW loss, I didn't automatically dump them.
My other equities lost a point or two and for the most part beat the market at least, unrealized and not that bad. I have moved out of high tech and have a lot in energy, home maintenance, infrastructure, and pharma, and apparently that's where the money is moving as buyers move to potential post pandemic profits. Not sure where my bonds will end up post 6pm when they post since people have been converting into cash and yield trends are hinky. The were valued too high to begin with.
I tried getting into green but that market was oversubscribed IMO the night of the election. Too much telegraphing on that one. Seems that this whole debacle today was a combination of bond yield curve trends and reconfiguring from high tech into energy and other post pandemic sectors. Retail which has taken a beating for a week or so seemed to be rallying. Target that Walmart :>)
Check the pre-market sales tomorrow, may have to pick a few high tech Apples against the trend if market shows positive before the bell or wait until the pm if looking like a downer. Fairly attractive right now since the smart guys are leaving. Since I already left, maybe it's time to come back :>) There's always something.....
This thread makes me laugh.
The best approach- proven by decades of statistical math- is a low cost index fund, such as Vanguard- and don't even look at it- just add & hold.
Anyone who says otherwise is simply wrong, and quite possibly being ripped of by someone.
'Financial advisor' is another name for con man.
2 great videos to watch-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gvZSpET11ZY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3oj_sdIjW1g
Josh To aid you all in your pursuit of economic bliss, I share with you a screenshot of today's reality. Increased costs to businesses have become too much to absorb. Globally, prices on everything are going to go up. Just food for thought.
maja2 "The best approach- proven by decades of statistical math- is a low cost index fund, such as Vanguard- and don't even look at it- just add & hold." I like a good index, but they are passive funds taking zero account of any sort of active management beyond the initial selection which proposes to emulate an index. It can only emulate, it can not match. And then they do nothing, totally passive investment. And they may be low cost, but there's a 1%-plus fee. Also, there are little rules mandating that an index does what it says, management performance, and it will never outperform the actual index. Never.
They can lose money but over time generally have positive returns. They pay no dividends unless you buy into a dividend index fund :>) Over time they generally beat most actively managed mutual funds. However, the key is time. You have to buy n hold for an extended period, say ten years. And chances are, with active management, buying, selling, and pruning --- you can beat passive management. The key, like most things, is work.
I agree, letting fund managers make your decisions is not your best choice. They have no skin in your game. But like everything, diversity is the spice. So, some mutual, some bonds, some fixed assets, real estate, some indexes, some straight out equities ---- IMO best to diversify to attempt to best weather the frequent changes in the market. But you have to manage, know when to fish or cut bait, hedge and cover.
Just doing indexes will keep you in the hunt, but you will never be out in front and yes, you still can lose. So if you think you can't beat the market, indexes are for you. If you like long term, untouched, investments, indexes MAY be for you. I have some, but also choose to do active management.
https://www.thebalance.com/investing-in-index-funds-for-beginners-356318#the-bottom-line-are-index-funds-a-good-investment
https://www.thebalance.com/index-funds-vs-actively-managed-funds-2466445
ps: that being said, I am going to buy a few indexes next because frankly it's summer time and I want to play more, work less. Thanks Josh.
ps ps: active money managers beat individual investors hands down, statistically, on average. Indexes seem to beat active money managers, on average, but not every time, every managed mutual fund. The evolution from pensions to 401k's represented a financial loss to workers. The pension managers were better money managers. Statistically speaking on the average of course.
Vanguard, started by Blair Academy alum John Bogle, the father of mutual funds.
My adviser has done very well for my family and is as honest as they come, tyvm. Can't talk to an index fund.
My 401k is spread amongst low cost funds. Growth, large cap, small cap, international, aggressive growth.
hktownie 
iJay Very true, big fan of index funds and etfs. Great place to park money and not as much risk exposure you'd get with holding single stocks.
Index funds can never be etfs, but etfs might be index funds. One difference is that index funds trade at closing price. Etf's at market price making etf's more like equities, index funds more like mutuals. Also, index funds are just that. Etf's can be a bundle of any equities plus other asset types like bonds, commodities, etc. Then add in blends and balanced funds for growth/value equity bundles and fixed income/equity bundles. Lots of choices for bundlers.
Why do any of this crap? One --as Jimbo noted, less risk than a standalone equity. Guess what comes with that? Second --- someone else is doing the work, not you. Generally you pay for that, but just a little. I call it "letting the smart guy's do the work. Pretty easy to see that the lower the risk, the lower the reward, and hopefully, the least amount of work.
But if you want to do the work, there is another way.
I have a number of equities I follow, mostly large cap, mostly with dividends to minimize my risk in a downturn. I also swing trade setting trailing lower limits at minimal profits to reduce my risk. I have targets and if a stock hits its target, generally it's so tasty that I am in like Flynn. One company does chlorine distribution, guns and bullets, a weird combination. I bought last February as pandemic started since Clorox and toilet paper already out of reach. Had a 6% dividend to protect any downturn. Immediately their quarterly came up, they screwed the books, and it plummeted as I settled in ready to be satisfied with 6% on dividends. 6 months in it turned around and 12 months in I sold for 50% profit, although dividends were down below 4%. It was work, it was risk, it really was worth it. No index would do that but, of course, made me a bit nervous for awhile.
I figure gas and oil will take off this Spring so started buying Exxon a few months back. The smart guys said don't, Exxon might not turn it around, they were in disarray, but at $35, a stock once worth $75 and paying 10% dividends seemed worth the risk, especially if the smart guys were avoiding it. I have bought and sold twice now since November making 13% and 9% on each sale --- all weeks of purchase. Again, work and most certainly risk. Might even buy a third time today. While Exxon was still a value, it became pricier so I bought Chevron on the third swing trade. Then Warren Buffet chimed in. What luck. It just dumped today at 11% profit. Likewise, been buying depressed banks, my Bank Of America just turned 13%, both profits came in ten days of purchase. Both had trailing loss limits on them and automatically sold when the limit triggered.
Now I am in the market again. Work, risk, and hopefully reward. Swing trading is good for reducing risk, still wouldn't risk my whole nut doing it. Love a good blend, balanced, and etf. Indexes a bit tame for me, might bond or muni fund first. But diversification is key and while the most profit is in equities, also the most work and risk to garner that reward.
Right now it's hard to lose, everything keeps going up, and it probably will for awhile. The fact that there's lots of crazy movement just makes it easier to capitalize on buying low and selling high. I still favor the minimal profits and frequent turns of swing trading, covering myself with dividends and trailing loss limits, because like most things ---- this won't last. Also, my entire portfolio is extremely conservative --- a lot of FDIC insured fixed assets since I just didn't believe the news in 2019/2020.
Don't think I will be picking any more Apples today, another stock they said wait on. I didn't, I am up on my first purchase, and it's up today so won't be adding any ---- still watching though, and still believe gas n oil have some leg room left before summer. Will check at 3:30 and see if there's a deal I can't refuse, but probably just enjoy my profits and the sunshine today.....
freedom25 Here's the secret sauce most in this thread covered (also brought some very interesting points) about 401ks except why your 401K doesn't preform as well as others:
Employers carefully choose who manages its Employer-sponsored retirement accounts for its employees (usually one of the large financial institutions like Vanguard, TRowe Price, American, etc.), so it's not the mutual funds, the fund manager, or even the employer's limited selection of investment options it offers to its employees that "underperforms" the Market. It's the employee's short-term perception on the long-term, compounding interest, averaging cost basis strategy that's the bedrock of the 401k - where they miss the 100% GROWTH mark that has their 401k more perform better than those (ie: employees who chose to Diversify or place "safe" ie: Bond funds in their 401k)
Now of course, if you are 3 years away from retiring (or approaching 59 1/2yrs old to penalty-free withdraw your 401k funds), then you SHOULD move or gear your 401k plan towards a more "conservative" or basket of Bond/Income funds to make sure you have all your hard worked paycheck deducted savings into it by time you best need or rely on it.
Other than that, what's proven is no matter what Market crashes or corrections hit your 401k portfolio during its time, ANY 401k Employer-based GROWTH mutual fund selection has overcome those losses which turn to outperformed (place you back in the Green, plus more) than any other INCOME selection over time (ie: of 3 years and more).
So the 401k "secret sauce" is to select and keep one or a handful of few all GROWTH funds to outperform others. *While make LESS changes to your 401k mix during its time*
In addition to your option to bend your 401k's Growth curve a bit, by MAXING-OUT your paycheck contributions during times of Market downwards or recessions - (up to the IRS limit of 19,500 +6,500 if @50 in its Catch-up plan. PLUS the investment money or % your Employer matches adds into your 401k as well).
Other than that, all you need to do is go 100% GROWTH all the time (except 3yrs prior retirement or @59 1/2) in your 401k plan. *Yet, let's exclude ESOP (employer stock purchase plans) and any Employer-sponsored 401k plans that allow you pick and invest in any individual Stocks or ETFs ...since that throws in a RISK Factor not wanted or not willing to address here*
However, all the other information on Diversification, Value Stocks, & etc. provided in this thread is good for those who manager their own money away from a 401k plan, like those via an IRA or other Taxable account.
Where there's great advice Not to rely on 1 investment pot like a 401k, if you can perform better, (just want to play the game), or need money in a shorter, earlier time frame (Like following a hot stock tip to win lotto or scratch off the golden ticket?! --- Good Luck)
aol123@aol.com "Employers carefully choose who manages." er..... I'm going to go with "maybe." There's some really bad 401k offers out there. There are some that are markedly better. First off, by definition, 401Ks are limited in financial instrument choices. Second, many are limited by selling times --- most complete sales at EOD, not at market prices. That's also the nature of funds versus individual stocks. Our 401s were "managed" by Fidelity and by rolling them out of the 401 and over to Fidelity suddenly all of those constraints disappear and I can buy anything that moves. I can even buy most of the same funds that the 401 offers; very few are proprietary to the 401.
One reason I say 401 offers can differ is that I made a research effort looking at a number of 401ks for returns. Not only was there a noticeable difference between funds, but if I noted stellar fund management: those were the individual funds I could buy on the outside. (which is why I looked).
I do agree it's the individual that really drives the bus and history shows that pension funds actively managed by money managers outperform individuals hands-down on returns. Face it: most individuals start buying when the market is moving hot and pull back when the market falters. Tend to buy high and sell low. Try to avoid this in your 401K; it's there for retirement and that's probably a few decades away. Don't knee-jerk.
As to what to pick in your funds. That should change based on the economy but these funds are pretty much structured for long term investments, maybe true up every 6 months or so. Plus, one should invest as much as the company match allows, and not a penny more. If you have more to invest, just invest it outside of the 401K and if you do as well on the outside as on the inside, you will probably do better. Less constraints even if you buy the exact same funds.
Bottom line: pensions return more than 401k's due to whose managing. Your own 401k is a constrained number of investments; sales take place at eod, do the best you can. Plan long term but do reconfigurations at a standard time, like 12 months, six months, four months, whatever you feel is right. Not more than four is recommended. You do not have to diversity your 401K; but your entire portfolio should be diversified. So if the 401 IS your portfolio, diversify it. I also personally made my monthly contribution into a specific fund dedicated to that so that I could easily tell exactly how well my other funds were doing. Didn't like to figure "the drip." for accounts I invested in.
I’m thinking of selling my Disney stocks ( I missed the boat, again) and swapping for a 5-10 year hold, ETF. Value is approximately $12k, not a retirement fund.
So, my HtownLife buddies….what’s your favorite ETF? I’m looking for an ETF that has energy, healthcare and financials, like Visa or one that follows the S&P 500.
I was thinking about VOO. Then I saw more offshoots of that. Ugg…I’ve been reading for four hours, just today, and my head is going to explode! I’m an amateur but don’t have enough money to use a financial planner. I’m small potatoes.
What say you?
Guilty-Remnant Seems like a bad time to sell Disney since probably down. While down, they had a good quarter, parks doing well, and most of the streaming loss is from India. UScsales are slower, but they just raised price, are still a foid deal, and that should kick in. They met or beat most of their qtr numbers.
I’m holding cuz I believe still and, most important, I hate to sell on a loss. I am a Disney dude though, so have some loyalty emotion.
That said, I bought mine at the beginning of 22 so before the political crap thinking the pandemic was over last spring. It was one of two equities I bought in past two years after selling most equities off at end of 21. The other I bought was a restaurant etf and it went Disney too. This year should be better.
Now I am pulling 4-7% on CDs; the higher end being brokered cd’s; the bottom end is Ally Bank, no need to look elsewhere for higher bank rates. Even terminated a bunch of 3-percenters in 22, took the tax deduction and re-upped at these new rates. Might not be the best profit, but I sleep well and buffers the Disney loss.
The other was the mutual FSDAX - fidelity defense fund which is up 15% in two years. Defense and Disney, sure, makes sense.
So if you want 4% return, Ally. 7% or higher, gobbrokered, but realize you won’t terminate those early, too painful. ,
Babbit Yeah, just be careful of the Brokered cds, not that they’re any riskier, just that the higher interest rates have a reason. The main reason is they are less flexible and more cumbersome to work with.
While they have the advantage of allowing you to easily invest in numerous banks to avoid the federal insurance cap of 250 K, they’re pretty hard to terminate early, and while they are insured, the broker holds the insurance which it would collect from the bank and then distribute to you. In the case of Fidelity, they have a stated policy to do that distribution, but again it’s something you have to check on and oretty sure it will take time to see your cash.
However, if you tap out at the 250 K, cap at Ally Bank, either get your wife to put in another 250K, or head to Fidelity for some brokerage stocks. Just bear in mind that you will never terminate them early, probably,
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