TS Isaias Where are the weather experts?

I’m missing the predictions from the HL Experts. Bryan, hoping you would pop in with the NC prediction.


I was just thinking the same thing! I’d love to hear your insights.


Here is the NWS briefing: https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf


OP, I much prefer the experts here. Everyone knows the NWS doesn’t know what they’re doing, lol.


My hair is a good indicator of weather. My frizz says rain!

For reals For reals
August 3rd

Rain
Wind
Power out

thomasnj thomasnj
August 4th

The Liberty Thinker was usually pretty good with his forecasts. Bryan left the area, as you know. No skin in the game for him anymore in taking weather guesses 600 miles north.

The Rhyme Animal The Rhyme Animal
August 4th

EPAWA is a great source. In my experience, they are pretty accurate.

3wbdwnj 3wbdwnj
August 4th

I have found this to be pretty accurate: https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/us/nj/hackettstown

4catmom 4catmom
August 4th

The post by OP is very good - I tend to follow winter weather - we are lucky this storm is not packing more wind but we will be seeing some heavy rain from noonish till later afternoon

LibertyThinker LibertyThinker
August 4th

Well, I'm always willing to tell you what I know about nothing I know.....

It's a moving target as the track shifts here and there a tad, and a tad matters.

Right now: looks like we get brushed by the eastern wall, the center is just west of us, maybe as close as Allentown or closer. All heck starts breaking loose at 11:30 with a rain decrease about 1, then another heavy band and over by 3:30.

Winds pick up at 11, peak at 2, start falling off at 3 --- sustained under 30, gusts 35-40.

That's right now, but radar is the key to where it's moving and even the slightest track shift can change everything. Thus far, has been trending less and lower, but that can change in a heartbeat.

It's a fast mover, probably can be a fast changer too.

Yes, I don't have a clue about weather :>)

strangerdanger strangerdanger
August 4th

Weather Underground is terrible since IBM acquired. Dark Sky is quite good, but for severe weather, the National Weather Service is the Gold standard. If you check we may get winds up to 58 to 73 mph and Tornado threats. Could be the biggest impact since Sandy, but nothing sustained like Sandy.


We.....or the coast iJay?

That's the "potential," they also say 55 gusts expected for belevidere and blairstown, elsewhere they quote 50-60 inland winds.

best to keep an eye on radar to see if track shift. As of 10am, still looks like we are on the Eastern wall, getting some banding, but major part still hits around 11-11.30. However, looks like it slides a little East, just after passing us. If it can do that then, it can do it earlier ----- so, like I said --- radar seems to be our best bet for guessing right now.

strangerdanger strangerdanger
August 4th

iJay - I have followed it for months and found it extremely accurate including the hourly predictions

4catmom 4catmom
August 4th

This was looking like a huge rain threat at first. It still is although the bullseye shifted a little west into PA. But the wind threat really increased since you are closer to the east side now. The storm strength also increased a bit more than expected overnight and the fast movement will keep the winds strong even up there.

Bottom line:
2-4" of rain in a short period of time (locally someone could be 5")
winds 30-40 mph with widespread gusts 50-60 mph.
elevated tornado threat

Bryan_NC Bryan_NC
August 4th

Without getting into details, I found errors in it. Submitted multiple emails to support and nothing resolved. Dark Sky is better IMHO so no going back; free for your PC but $3.99 for the iPhone and worth every penny. If it I look at it now it shows maximum gusts going into the low 40s.


BTW, we are under a Tornado Watch.


Thank you Bryan!

3wbdwnj 3wbdwnj
August 4th

Possible tornado in Doylestown, PA.

https://www.wfmz.com/news/area/southeastern-pa/roof-ripped-off-day-care-cars-overturned-after-possible-tornado-in-doylestown/article_305b6352-d674-11ea-983e-47905cbdb01b.html

Calico696 Calico696
August 4th

Wow, hope my friends and family in the Doylestown area are ok. To think, the family members moved from "The Windy City" to there just last year!

Phil D. Phil D.
August 4th

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