Check this out: Disgustingly scary!
Think SARs for timeline.....both are coronavirus. SARS was 2002-2003 and we got a late start.
Good news is, so far, less lethal than SARs
Bad news is, so far, much more contagious than SARs
Good news is the world should be on this faster than SARs
Bad news is that it's China and we really don't know that to be true.
5 in US, all from China. Maybe 250 "suspected" and being watched.
If that were true, I'd think a reputable news source would have picked up on it days ago. Is it possible? Sure. But consider the source.
Its all over the news eperot....called the corona virus.....in china
Here is a link from a legitimate news source
BBC News - Chinese diasporas stockpile surgical masks, fret over infection
SD, I believe your comments concerning the Wuhan corona virus are a bit optimistic. I don't mean to be alarmist, however consider the following: China originally claimed the virus originated in a fish market in Wuhan. Now, given the number and scope of their citizens affected they are suggesting it might have originated elsewhere. Question is, where is the elsewhere? Possibly a Chinese bio-lab? Next, why would the Chinese be scrambling to build a hospital in less than a week to treat those affected by the virus? Seems the Chinese might know more about the seriousness of the situation than they are letting on. Sure, they have shared some information about the virus with the global community, but just how much is in question. There is some reason for suspicion given that communist China, like Russia, has a history of controlling/ limiting what they tell their citizens and hence the world. Remember Chernobyl and how the Russian government at least initially denied there was a problem?" Or how they denied responsibility for the deaths of Russians resulting from the bio-weapons anthrax leak near Sverdlovsk? This concept of coverup is also true of the communist Chinese. Therefore, I believe we should be open minded to the possibility that the new corona (Wuhan) virus might have escaped from a Chinese bio-lab similar to the anthrax leak from the bio-weapons lab near Sverdlovsk.
Bug3 - I don't think eperot meant "that" to mean "Corona virus". The original post is "Cornona virus is a biological weapon". I believe eperot was questioning what evidence connects Corona to a biologic weapon lab.
The lab is located in the same city...your right just pure coincidence
Plc; does not change the facts about the disease on how contagious and deadly it is. I did note “China lies” which could change everything. They are both corona viruses and we do have a time table on SARS including the “cost” of the Chinese delay in terms of spread and vaccine creation time. Lab, wet market, fish market, really doesn’t matter right now, does it? Right now, we need a vaccine.
A test for a biological-chemical warfare? someone told me that the disease could also be formulated from diseased Bats. the only BCW Lab is in Wuhnan, China - interestingly where the disease first got started.
Not a very good lab, apparently. First rule of science: never xxxx where you sleep.
iJay, During my time in the service we were taught about bio/ chemical weapons. We learned that bio-weapons aren’t always designed to kill. Some are designed to incapacitate only. An Army cannot fight if they are sick with fever or unable to leave the toilet. The opposing army then has the upper hand, it’s solders having been previously vaccinated against the bio-weapon.
I'm sure RU will give us the virus nioweapon facts :)
So far, it could be conjecture based on the location of the lab. However, the Chinese government does seem more alarmed than they usually show. A bio-weapon could be a reason.
They had SARS. They had avian flu . And now they have labs now so a bio weapon could be the answer because why, after all those diseases, why would a lab NOT be for creating bioweapons. I mean what else would you do with a lab.
I mean if you have disease, and you have a lab, then you must have bioweapons. And if you have bioweapons, what better place to try them than in your own neighborhood. Especially if you haven’t created the vaccine..
They have fish markets. They have wet markets. The corona virus jumps from animals, like bats, to other animals, like the ones in the market and then it jumps to humans like the ones working and buying stuff in the open air markets in close proximity to live and dead animals. They closed the markets so it could be a bioweapon.
Or maybe it’s the CDC, that’s a lab, who planted it in China during the trade negotiations to mess that up making the deal look bad because they want gun control. We have labs, maybe we did it.
But I bet it’ll turn out to ve Canada. They have labs and they’re always so polite. Could be they just want Vancouver back from the Chinese.
Scary start to this virus. The commentary talks about an R0 of 2.0-2.5 and plots the actual infection rate on a logarithmic scale-wow.
They do issue the following disclaimer, which is completely appropriate imo:
“To be absolutely clear, this is NOT a prediction that 100 million people will be infected by Feb 20. Rather, this has been its growth rate for the last 12 days. A vaccine, mutation or successful quarantine/isolation could help reduce this growth rate.”
Heard that back even in my days in the Army plc. This one doesn't look like that, but of course you never know...
All we can do is wait and see.... I remember when the "bird flu" was going to kill millions. FAIL.
The big problem is the 2 week period where a person can be contagious but have no symptoms. This is why extreme measures are needed in China for it burn out.
It has a fatality rate of 2% killing the very old/young and sick. Get a virus with a 50% kill rate and hundreds of millions will die. It is going to happen one day, hopefully beyond the lifespan of all of us.
"It is going to happen one day, hopefully beyond the lifespan of all of us." Cheery. Can we talk about that supernova or asteroid strike now :>( Try getting up on the other side of the bed tomorrow :>)
I've seen 2-3%, 3-4% mortality which, I think, is lower than SARS or MERS. However, this coronavirus is much more contagious and this one strikes the young n healthy more so than in SARS or MERS. So more contagious, less mortality.
Vaccine will be tested in a few months, maybe producible in 12 months. This is faster than SARS or MERS because we did those already and China was faster on announcing/quarantining this one. Everyone has the virus genetic sequencing by now including our CDC. However......chances are we will quarantine and it will burn out before the vaccine is ready. That's what happened with SARS.
Bottom line: quarantine is really the only thing that will really help us. Masks may slow it down but proximity is what makes it spread. Vaccines probably won't be in time for this first wave.
The key is quarantine, and hopefully, the Chinese were fast enough and will be effective at closing other hot spots down. And then it will basically burn itself out.
While Chinese biowarfare might be considered by some to be the cause...….chances are it jumped from bat to animal, with said animal appearing at wet market where many people come in close contact with living and dead animals where it probably jumped from animal to human. That's the real problem that the Chinese need to fix. If biowarfare, then they created it, gave it to a bat, had the bat give it to another animal, and then introduced said animal to a human. All in proximity of the wet market estimated to be patient zero. Apparently, they can work backwards in knowing whether human-to-human or animal-to-human transmission based on subject testing. That's kind of cool.
SD, Once again you are misinformed concerning creation/ modification of viruses. You don’t “create” the virus and give it to the bat and then the human. You extract a sample of virus from the bat and splice in human genes to make it contagious to humans. This type of research occurs not simply to cause illness as a bio-weapon. But to study the ability to combat viruses that have the potential to one day affect humans. Therefore, the Wuhan virus might not have resulted from a bio-weapons project. But rather a research project into viruses in general. Either way the virus might have accidentally gotten out of the lab, infecting the general public.
Can't help myself
3 weeks ago
The stock market has been taking a beating because of this virus. I've lost money on my 401k this year because of it.
Wow, that stinks Mets --- I lost a bet in China too, but that's a shaky bookkeeping story and my greed.....so, no Atlantic City on that bet... :>( So far, this year, I am rollin in it, especially the past two days. Today should be good too except for that upturn at the end-of-day...
"Once again you are misinformed concerning creation/ modification of viruses." Really PLC --- "once again?" oye… really? I can't remember doing the virus bioweapon conspiracy theory debunking before. Can you source how they make these things and splice them? I am used to their DNA, and genetic coding techniques that can lead to both the alpha source and ground zero geographic location, I know many have replicated the virus in the labs already but would love to read about your method of creation in animals and then splicing to humans. Sounds fascinating.
On your current theory, you read Washington Times which invented the story based on a unsubstantiated, unsourced, whim from a crazy guy who's thrown out similar, yet proven false, claims before. His story was subsequently picked up and "enhanced" by other "media types."
You may be right, but you're probably wrong. Very probably. Your guy has been wrong in the past. WashingtonTimes is generally good on the news, but on the investigative stuff ---- can get tinfoily, or at least it has many times in the past.
Try this: https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/29/coronavirus-china-lab-mortality-virology-wuhan-virus-not-bioweapon/ scholarly --- rated fair, balanced, and high-level fact-based reporting by Media Bias/Fact Check..
Or: https://www.politifact.com/facebook-fact-checks/statements/2020/jan/28/blog-posting/websites-spin-conspiracy-theory-about-coronavirus-/ --- rated fair, balanced, and high-level, fact-based reporting
Oh yeah, just for the record: Washington Times rating: Right of right center bias and mixed factual reporting...… Once again.....once again....
Hope that helps. Kind of interesting really so thanks for prompting the search. Let me leave you with a hint. When you read a story that seems outside of the main story, the exact same story repeated from a variety of media outlets, that all seem to be originating in same minor thing (in this case a quote and a lab location), with no new news in each story ---- danger, danger, it's probably one guy mouthing off and a bunch of weak journalists repeating and embellishing without actually REPORTING.
The odd part is the number of new hospitals they are building in China...something is going on
3 weeks ago
I agree, it is odd. However, since China "brews" more of these viruses, has much more experience with what the disease is, where it is going and how to derail it, you can see where they would understand the need. Also, China has more high density than we, less regulations, paperwork, and fear of new building techniques, making the need and the solution different from a US paradigm.
And the world knows that quarantine is the only answer; the vaccine won't be there in time to stem the contagion; only quarantine can stop the spread for 6-months to a year before the vaccine is here. And that's with Chinese drug approvals, not ours.
Also, these are not sustainable hospitals but rather quarantine centers for a specific, single purpose so chances are, they will never be full Hospitals.
Here's some more info: "Rawlings says that China’s history with mass epidemics has prepared them for the ongoing crisis in Wuhan. “In many ways China is ahead of the US and other nations when it comes to responding to mass infections, as they’ve been through this before with SARS in the early 2000s,” he says. “China can also have fewer bureaucratic restrictions when it comes to designing and constructing massive projects like this one, particularly when so much is on the line.”
Perhaps it's not the Chinese that are odd, but it is us that don't have a plan like this?
Scary that some people are so brain dead that they actually think this virus has something to do with Corona beer. SMH
Vicious rumor started by Budweiser who began their history their name from Czech Rep where the real Bud was created.
Corona is part of Anheiser Busch -Bud, though, Strangerdanger, so why would they start their own rumor?
3 weeks ago
Good point, but wrong. Corona is not part of AB. Corona is a beer made by Groupo Modello. Budweiser is a beer made by AB. AB and Groupo Modello are subsidiaries of AB InBev, based in Belgium. InBev became AB InBev when they acquired AB. As such, they are like brothers of a different mother. Have you not heard of sibling rivalry?
Budweiser is a town in Czech Rep. with a beer of the same name. Our Bud stole the name. Because of that, there have been distribution legalities where each of the beers can be sold in Europe in the past. Cold war stuff. These beers share nothing in common beyond the name. After the collapse, AB offered to buy Budweiser out but so far; no. Thank God.
Oh yeah, it was a joke. I know, don’t quit my day job. Beer historian ;-). Pretty funny since I cannot tell one beer from another. But I do know a real Bud will put you in your cups in no time.
Man, I hate conglomerates.
Oil of oregano also works for colds. Don't buy any inferior brand. Get Oreganol P73 from North American Herb & Spice company.
3 weeks ago
An employee of mine is from about 500 miles from Wuhan, and his family is still there. He claims that China is low balling the infected number which is truly at least 100k just in China.
Maybe, it's the end of the world as we know it.
IJay, I totally agree that they are really lowballing it. It's a serious situation. I think the current 1k death number is not even I smidgeon of what's really happening. Can't believe they jailed the doctor for trying to warn everyone, and then he dies from it. It's pretty catastrophic.
Soo.. according to that article, my rough math says 48 million could die.
In context- It took over 200,000 years of human history for the world's population to reach 1 billion, and only 200 years more to reach 7 billion.
So just a blip. If we survive- buy the dip!
Joke, sort of. We can't control whatever this mess is so I'm not worrying.
Whatever comes my way I will deal with it best I can at that time.
Just read this-
"Maybe the virus is going to attenuate its lethality because it certainly doesn’t help it if it kills everybody in its path, because it will get killed as well,” he said."
And I automatically will discredit anything whoever thought that has to say.
(reputed 'one of the world’s experts on coronavirus epidemics')
Umm.. yea, a virus thinks and tries to make rational decisions. Suuuure..... 公驢
In express today; https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/news/2020/02/lafayette-college-student-hospitalized-feb-3-does-not-have-new-chinese-coronavirus-doctor-says.html
Hope the students test results are correct. Keep hearing of cases where some people test neg and later come down with the virus.
I was just shopping at a busy store in town, actually Mansfield. The cashier just came back from Italy. She was temperature tested ok. But if you go for a week and the incubation is two weeks, or more, it's very possible to be infected. Seems to me that spread of the Corona virus is inevitable. Thoughts?
p.s. Italy is having a serious outbreak
Everybody who has drunk Corona or eaten Chinese food in the past month should be quarantined. You know who you are... up against the wall.
I'm going to Italy in a couple months... hopefully this thing has burned itself out by then...
To kill this virus we need a long run of cold weather. Thus far not happening. Unfortunately the coming warmer and wet weather will make it worse.
DJIA down 1k points (3.6%) and NASDAQ down 350 (3.7%). That's the 3rd-largest drop in history (for the Dow) from an absolute value standpoint, but probably not even top 20 in terms of percentage...
Corona virus is a fancy name for the common cold....yes upper respiratory infections do kill...the Chinese data may not be credible...we don't really know what is going over there...but if you disrupt the chinese manufacturing chain to the US...you can affect the stock market....down 1000 pts today
2 days ago
According to reports, it's not the common cold: Wuhan, China has a biological/chemical warfare lab. Something may have been intentionally released from the Lab.
All it takes is 1 person around her to be infected.
I seriously wonder if this could be the end of the world as a healthy population....... as it keeps spreading and killing.
If it turns into the flu...yes it will get nasty and many will die.. millions already die from the flu....usually old people in hospitals or nursing homes...if this becomes another spanish flu...then we are in trouble
2 days ago
Tin foil hat time again. Read farther up, doubtful it’s a war experiment. The lab is a lab started after another virus; no proof that it’s developing weapons. Scientists and doctors think it originated in the wet markets there.
It is more contagious, less lethal, than past Sars, Mers, etc. and effect all ages and health conditions. Thus, while death rate is lower, with more affected, more death.
If China started 12/2019, levels off by 3/2020; we have a timeline GIVEN quarantines, etc. That’s a big if in open border Europe. The next few weeks will be critical.
For us, note our people who manage pandemics are mostly gone, fired, or replaced by Fox pundits. I suggest prayer.
JR: better at least start looking into canceling. Even if Italy goes heavy quarantine; doubtful you will prove it leveling off there by then. A couple of months out looks pretty risky. My niece just cancelled China for late summer.
Personally, there's no way I'm putting my family on a plane going anywhere anytime soon. Certainly not overseas.
Well, we did buy travel insurance... I wonder if heavy quarantining (if it's still occurring) will be enough for it to be used, or if the WHO will have to declare a pandemic.... guess we'll find out...
Watching news yesterday, and travel expert said that travel insurance will not pay if you choose to cancel because of “fear” of traveling or “Fear of getting sick“ . It is pays only if you , yourself, become too ill to travel and have a Note from your doctor saying you cannot travel.
Don’t rely on travel insurance. At the very least, check with them first about coverage.
Well, I'll bet the WHO (World Health Organization) declaring a pandemic would have some influence on airlines honoring travel insurance claims.... but it would have to be declared an pandemic first, which will cost a lot of people a lot of money.... politics and wallets come into play at that point.
Just know your options and timing in case you have to pull the rip cord; hopefully the planes etc. will let you off the hook. That’s what happened to my niece.
Gonna be strange if planes fly you in and then you can’t get out ;-(
We could be getting close to Triple B time. Bunker, beans and bullets. ;-)
Maybe, I should add a fourth B for beer. LMAO
Scary stuff. You could drag me on a cruise ship or plane for free. Even movie sets like Tom Cruise's closed down in Italy. I hope they find something quickly to help the pandemic spreading. My thoughts are with those who have it and those carrying it that might not know, yet.
1 day ago
If this scares you, just wait till someone uses CRISPR to make the real deal. You can do it at home now.
It's only a matter of time..
"Add a 5th B for bourbon"
Nah, need to stay sharp to be able to shoot straight. Tempting idea though.
Well, I was hopeful, now I am hopeful to get a weak dose...…
This one is really scary: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/ Combined with administrative management moves, gets scarier.
Need to watch Europe very carefully; we need to significantly up our testing. And we need big Pharma to actually care as in ---- give them money to expedite the vaccine.
Good luck stopping it, going to spread to 40-70% of the World's population:
Worse than The Atlantic prediction is our readiness to fight it; we have reduced those organization’s managements and staffs to bare bones. We have little pandemic preparations, global support, and infrastructure left. We need to rehire our experts. Now.
From the BBC website. Sounds like Italy will the source for the western world.
"Austria, Croatia and Switzerland said the cases involved people who had been to Italy, as did Algeria in Africa.
The first positive virus test has been recorded in Latin America - a Brazilian resident just returned from Italy."
some food for thought/perspective:
" It’s important to put the risk into perspective. The Coronavirus does not appear any worse than the annual flu. The key difference is that there is no vaccine, and one will likely take months to develop. It sounds even more daunting and sinister because it’s new, mysterious, and originates from a foreign country. "
" It’s frightening to watch the news reports of health officials in China wearing rubber gloves, surgical masks, goggles, and hazmat suits as they treat patients. But these images need to be tempered with reality. Each year tens of thousands of Americans die from the influenza virus."
" During the 2018-2019 flu season in the United States, about 75% of all deaths were age 65+. Roughly 17% were between 50-64. These two categories comprise 91% of all deaths. But look closer and you will see that many of them had an array of pre-existing conditions that left them with weakened immune systems. Early reports from China echo this: Most of those who have died were already in poor health. One preliminary report placed the median age of death as 75."
" All indications are that this Coronavirus is much milder than its two cousins, SARS and MERS. When SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) broke out in China in 2002, it was traced to civet cats and had a death rate of about 10%. There were just over 8,000 cases in 17 countries. SARS is a variant of the new Coronavirus. In 2012, another variation of the virus broke out in the Middle East and was dubbed Middle East Respiratory Syndrome or MERS. The virus had a much higher death rate—about 35%—but only affected 2,500 people and was much harder to catch than SARS; transmission was linked to camel meat. The good news about the new virus is that while it appears to spread more easily than its two predecessors, it is far less severe. "
also, word directly from Italy (I realize these people are in the tourist business, and are trying to calm people's fears.... but there on-hand account is still interesting and relevant):
Posted on FB by, interestingly, one of the hotels we are to be staying at...
To everyone in our extended La Bandita family, I wanted to offer my thanks for your concerns as we start the new season here. At the moment here in Tuscany, life goes on very much as normal, where as of today, there are no cases of the virus. The majority of cases in Italy are clustered around several small towns in the north, and the Italian government has acted with (surprising) efficiency and transparency, understandably enacting intense precautionary measures in those areas. The first individuals infected are already recovering and those who have died from this virus have all been elderly and already suffering from cancer or diabetes or other health issues. More cases will come, and no doubt this virus will arrive on everyone’s shores soon. And while the world's attention right now is focused on this, the truth is all of us face far greater dangers in our daily lives every day (millions suffer the flu each year in Italy alone, with many of the weakest members of society succumbing each year with no media attention). Our planet is facing far great disruptions and dangers right now, while we count on one hand new cases of coronavirus. This is the current situation, but of course things may change for the better or the worse. Those of us that work in hospitality and travel depend on the freedom and tranquility of global movement so of course we are hopeful and optimistic for a speedy stabilization of the situation. But we are also concerned and responsible members of a global community, and if the situation becomes unsafe, I will honestly report to our guests and clients that it is not the moment to travel. But for now, there is no reason to suspend plans. Now is not the moment to panic, withdrawal and listen to politicians or “journalists” acting unreasonably for their own benefit. Listen, follow the instructions from responsible and reasonable leaders, stay informed from trustworthy sources, stay in touch with your friends around the world, and continue to live your lives. Now...where is my Negroni?
These are the current number and distribution of cases in Italy:
"La Lombardia registra 258 casi, Veneto 71, Emilia Romagna 30, Piemonte 3, Lazio 3, Liguria 3, Toscana 2, Sicilia 3, Marche 1 e Alto Adige 1".
As I have been saying:
The death rate is less than SARs and Mers.
The contagious rate is higher.
There will be more death than sars and mers.
It kills young, old, and those in the middle; that’s not just another flu.
Whatever China lies about, the world was on it faster and better than before.
Planning, preparation, testing, and diagnosis and quarantine are key.
We have gutted, fired, fear mongered our organizations for public health, disease control, and homeland security. Many are run by political appointees on an acting basis. Many top positions are vacant. We used to coordinate with over 40 countries, now it’s 10.
As an older gent with diabetes; yeah, I am worried. Not scared, but extremely concerned.
"There will be more death than sars and mers. "
In the end, probably. But the regular flu kills more people than SARS and MERS.
SARS: 744 (death rate 14-15% BUT that only included people who were hospitalized, so it is suspected to be much lower)
MERS: 858 (but a 35% death rate)
regular flu: 12,000-56,000 per year (death rate impossible to calculate, for many reasons, but it seems to hover around 2%)
Right now, Wuhan Virus has about a 2% death rate... but that is still being determined. It's a bit early to tell if it is "worse" (in total deaths) than SARRS or MERS. Time will tell.
So, based on statistics, as of right now, the Wuhan is no worse than the regular flu, either in spread or death rate. But of course it's developing... just be careful of media fear mongering, which has several political and financial agendas that would benefit from making a mountain out of a molehill. Just as they do with Hurricanes, snow storms, etc.
It's how catching it is that scares me. Seeing people die that have treated people adds to it. I think we're in for a rude awakening.
16 hours ago
"Nurses in Wuhan, China, psychologically stressed and physically exhausted, appealed to medical workers around the world to come to the heart of the outbreak and help them treat the thousands of infected people there." <<<New York Times
What I get from this is that you aren't going to stay home and just get better, you are going to need treatment, serious treatment.
President Trump will have a news conference today at 6 pm regarding the virus.
Shoot, where are my hip boots? Might actually need to go full chest waders on this one. If I leave now, I can probably get to Cabela's and back home just in time, lol.
Jefferson republic.. Regular old flu has a mortality rate of 0.1 percent...
Yeah, but regular flu is nation wide, world wide. This was one guy or two in a wet market in China and here are.
I dunno about you, but during the sars scare, when those Canadians sat at my blackjack table in Vegas; only I ever got up from a winning streak ;-). It will change our lives and without planning and preparation, dramatically.
It’s twice as contagium as flu and 10 times as deadly; that’s how concerned you should be.
Planning and preparation are key, not denial and distraction. We don’t physically have to do much yet except to plan and prepare to stay ahead of it. We have test kits in 4 states. NY and NYC have none. Are we ready? Does that sound ready?
We’re on the boat for sure, probably; but we don’t have any charts and all of our captains have been fired. I guess we will hear our strategy tonight, hopefully not just how great everyone is and how it’s all OK.
" While flu deaths in children are reported to CDC, flu deaths in adults are not nationally notifiable. In order to monitor influenza related deaths in all age groups, CDC tracks pneumonia and influenza (P&I)-attributed deaths through the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) Mortality Reporting System. This system tracks the proportion of death certificates processed that list pneumonia or influenza as the underlying or contributing cause of death. This system provides an overall indication of whether flu-associated deaths are elevated, but does not provide an exact number of how many people died from flu." -- from the CDC
The 2% number I have seen for regular flu takes into consideration people who died from complications of existing conditions, which is also the profile for the current Wuhan virus.... the people it's killing are by and large those with compromised immune systems, the elderly, people with pre-existing conditions such as cancer, diabetes, etc. Many are not dying FROM Wuhan virus.
It has not been statistically shown to be "10 times deadlier" than the flu. That's a news headline. No one knows how deadly it is yet. RIGHT NOW, it's a 2% death rate... but as I just said, well never mind, just read my last post, from the CDC.
"We’re on the boat for sure, probably; but we don’t have any charts and all of our captains have been fired."
SMH. Stop reading and watching MSM.
57 cases in the US. All have been contained.
Air Italia offering refunds to people who request them (I'm sure there are stipulations; they may not be offering refunds to people with tickets for 3 months from now, for example)
China stats on deaths don't mean anything. Italy tells the real story.
"The cases are heavily concentrated in the region of Lombardy where 212 infections have been confirmed. The authorities said Tuesday evening that 11 people have so far died from the virus in the country."
11 deaths of 322 cases in the country.
I think that's probably the most accurate number we have now, maja. Time will make it even more accurate. Iran also has a lot of cases, but between their reporting/trust level, and their healthcare, I don't think we can trust numbers from there, either.
Interesting tho... if we have 57 cases in the US, 2 of those people should be dead... or soon will be... I guess we'll see (so far, no deaths)
Maja, still early yet. Remember, only those who go to doctor or hospital are in your estimates. Every day more who haven't gone yet will turn up and most will not die.
Yes JR, none of the numbers are exact and we won't know better numbers until time passes or after it's over. But only one person in power that I know of dared to equate the mortality rate of "regular" flu with COVID19 --- Your "The 2% number I have seen for regular flu" I respectively think is wrong, that's the current COVID19 mortality rate. I think the "regular" flu is more like .1 to .2% Thus the 10-times factor.
Sure, these numbers will change, these numbers are, at best, directional for the simple reason that many people with the flu, even COVID19, do not go either to the doctor or the hospital.
I know you don't believe MSM or the news, but really ---- .2 versus 2 seems directionally to say COVID19 is more deadly, if contracted. It is also more contagious-able (is that a word) than SARS, MERS, and the other corona's we've seen.
I think to low ball the danger is not prudent; to high ball the danger, during the planning and preparation phase is prudent, IMO.
This is not prudent: "Problems with a government-created coronavirus test have limited the United States’ capacity to rapidly increase testing, just as the outbreak has entered a worrisome new phase in countries worldwide. Experts are increasingly concerned that the small number of U.S. cases may be a reflection of limited testing, not of the virus’s spread.
While South Korea has run more than 35,000 coronavirus tests, the United States has tested only 426 people, not including people who returned on evacuation flights. Only about a dozen state and local laboratories can now run tests outside of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta because the CDC kits sent out nationwide earlier this month included a faulty component."
It gets worse: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/02/25/cdc-coronavirus-test/ or try: "a dozen state and local health departments can do the testing, although positive results need to be confirmed by the CDC."
Sure, it's WAPO, those lying dogs, but certainly gives one pause for consideration. As for me, I await tonight's press conference and hope we hear about tangible planning and preparation efforts to stay on top on this thing, if we have to. Hopefully we will not however, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cures. Because if we are not ready ----- this one could hit fast and hard.
JR, a large majority of those cases were related to the cruise ship and the victims are probably young enough that they aren't at risk for death by complications of pre-existing conditions. We will need to wait until there is a more random distribution of the virus throughout the population for the lethality percentage to regress to the mean.
To me, what we want to see is when Italy and South Korea levels off.
Like I said, China reports started 12/2019; leveling off started 2/2020. It's still early to really say it's levelled off, but so far.....so good.
So, two or three months. One would think Italy and South Korea, given their heads-up, can beat China's timeline, but again, it's still early.
Point is ---- figure it's gonna happen. Question is how do we tell (might be nice to have testing in 50 states and not require CDC for confirmation), how do we react, and how fast can we react. With it crossing Asia, Middle East, and Europe, chances are we can't close down our nation.
But we can plan and prepare for what looks like the inevitable. Nothing better than to wake up 3 months from now and say: "SD, you wimp!" That would be grand in my book.
The last thing that is needed is PANIC, PANIC......PANIC. The people who control the MSM want panic. Everything gets sensationalized one way or another. We don't need grocery store shelves looking like there is a snowstorm coming constantly. Everyone needs to just chill.
Jim Bakker wants panic so he can sell his doomsday food buckets, lol... who doesn't need a 5-gallon spackle bucket full of Mexican food when the Apocalypse is right outside your front door?
Yikes, ianimal! Does it also contain a 6 month supply of mascara in memory of Tammy Faye?
Ian, there you go then... perfect example of why we need more metrics before deciding "here it comes!!! Everybody batten down the hatches!!!" Which is all I am saying.
30 days of Mexican food in the hermetically sealed underground bunker sounds more dangerous than the virus. Gonna need more hepa filters :-)
I agree, the current facts should not lead to panic, don’t panic. But if a little msm getting panicked gets better planning and preparation underway, panic away! If the Congressional questioning of Health Commissioner yesterday, launched by Kennedy is an example, we ain’t ready. Lucky the Commiss led the sars response, at least he’s been there. But Kennedy, and others, were not pleased with the response.
JR: I think the time to batten down is when the first “community based transmission” occurs. That is, when the first guy gets it where we cannot determine where he got it, its time to reduce your group activities and eat Mexican while wearing waders and grabbing your mask ;-)
Anyone else seeing cut-rate trips to Venice on the HL banners? I blame JR :-)
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