Stock Market 2019

What's everyone doing this year? How did you weather the storm so far?

I did something different this year. I was kind of pissed that a financial consultant's fire-sale plan was weak, generalized, and other bad things. Was on my second round of "fix this," when we started on the roller coaster. So the first different thing I did was call for the fire-sale and dump everything. I usually ride it out.

Apparently I dumped 5-days ahead of where his "program" called for the sale with a hell of a lot of roller coaster in between. So, I felt good.

Meanwhile I had been dumping a lot of other stuff, mostly at profit, but not a lot, and pumping it into CD's at 3-3.5%. Figure bread n butter revenues to buttress risker stocks.

Then with the stuff I just sold, I deployed my new, yet old, strategy of buying dividend-bearing blue chippers at fire sale prices was deployed. Think my average dividend is 4% per year. Purchase price was pretty much in the trough. Lucky. So far, 30% of them have profits over 10% and a new lower limit granting me 5% profit if they sell. Getting ready to add a few more limits and bump up some of the current 5-ers to 10% profit.

That's another change for me, usually I set the lower limit high enough it always sells; this time I am trying for a reasonable profit, but hold as long as I can for the dividends. Just want to have some protection against these massive gyrations.

What is everyone else doing?

Anyone use Columbia Threadneedle? What are they about?

strangerdanger strangerdanger
Feb '19

Steve Sjuggerud says there will be a Melt-Up.

happiest girl
Feb '19

CRON, aprn, ptn, team


GDDY and I took a stab in GE at 7.80. Kicking myself for not buying puts in FB when it made a major downhill move. Then should have bought calls when it started its recovery.

Btw! Love this thread

Jacqui Jacqui
Feb '19

Held and bought more of what I was holding when I thought it was bottoming out. Didn’t bottom out but still got in at a low price.

My general philosophy is to hold during a sell off because it’ll generally go back up. Where you capitalize is buying when everything drops

BusinessGuy1984
Feb '19

BG; but I had to sell to buy. Have not come back yet but ahead of a hold. Lot of luck selling before the trough and buying in the trough. As much luck as anything.

Thought about GE, just too big for me; did Ford instead and not dancing yet. Good luck; it was on my list. Looked af PSGE or whatever the CA power co is. Looks like Chptr 11 for them, glad I got scarred.

This Columbia Threadneedle is amazing mutual. Anyone else doing them?

Strangerdanger Strangerdanger
Feb '19

Get those penny weed stocks, in your portfolio. MJNA volatile, but it’s only $.08 cents a share, so us small time folk can also play the market. AMZN started at around $2.00 per share, yes? The market has been more along the lines of online gambling. Less people use old fashioned fundamentals. The P/E on some of these tech stocks says “already priced too high”, yet they continue to climb. They say one must be patient. I sat on SIRI (Sirius radio) for over 10 years before finally taking my %20 loss and walking away. Ones that I’m pumping and dumping are:marathon oil (MRO), Canopy (CGC), and a few penny weed stocks. I wait for a %10-20 drop. Buy in. Sell at %10-20. Can’t get that kind of return (or risk, mind you) in any bank. I figured, since weed will be nationally recognized, soon, I would invest in the future. But what to pick? There’s a hundred + startups! Sitting on APPL and DIS ( apple and Disney), long term.
I love this thread, also! I need laymen’s advice. Seems like “the experts” always predict the opposite. I’m still an amateur, but learning.
Speaking of “experts”, if they were really THAT good, why would they even have to go to work? I’m sure there’s a few that actually like dealing with the public, but working for a bank or brokerage firm? Hmmm...

Guilty-Remnant Guilty-Remnant
Feb '19

and the rich get richer . . . . it takes money to make money and if you don't have it this is a tough go.

GreyHawk GreyHawk
Feb '19

Money definitely goes to money. People who have a million bucks to gamble, get richer. They can use $200k as gambling money. Those weed stocks can go up %20 overnight. That’s a quick $40k, right there. If it flounders, there’s still $800k safely tucked away, while waiting. At this stage, those stocks are going up, up, down, up...
Small time investors, like myself, probably shouldn’t even be in the markets, but what else is there? I’m trying to make a quick buck...( investment mistake, 101) ! With SIRI, I had put ALL my money in.( investment mistake 101...pt.2) and lost almost 1/2, before bailing and moving to Disney. Nice rooms, to! (Haha)
My “wealth” is enough to buy me maybe a year or two, if there’s no major medical or other issue. So, when I say “small time”, I mean it. But, if one has enough $, they can sit with the ups and downs.
For children’s investment (college etc), I would pick a blue chip stock with dividend reinvestment. Disney is the only thing that is hanging in there. %50 ROI, after 15 years. In this case, now enough $ for 1 year of county college. WOW, I’m good...LOL!
Do those investment clubs still exist? We had one, in Hackettstown, a long time ago. Investors get together. Brain storm. Pool their money.

Guilty-Remnant Guilty-Remnant
Feb '19

Rich get richer is true in all financial dealings, however, you can operate underneath them and contrary to them for better than average earnings. Just don't try to win.

I live by the adage: "if the taxi cabs drivers are making money, it's time to leave the market." And "if you get advice via the news, it's already too late."

Hopefully you are only putting AC money in those penny stocks. As in "a good week end in AC," cash since you are pretty much day-trading on some very volatile companies. I agree that the market looks to be full steam ahead at this point. But the companies ---- that's another thing all together.

I went with Altria which gets me Phillip Morris, an evap company (altira got rid of their own last year), some wine and 45% ownership in Cronos, Canadian Pot growing for $1.8B.

Damn, I'm hot: https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/02/03/altria-just-gave-3-great-reasons-you-should-buy-cr.aspx

No, just lucky. So there's your tip, it's already too late, but take a look at whether you want to buy Cronos direct. I just went for the dividend long term investment.

Dividends of 6.5% at Altira; Cronos NA. Altira Beta: .34, Cronos: 3.41. Need I say more.

Not feeling great yet, down about 5% so I will need that dividend! Apparently, market pushing back on these company acquisition prices. Altria has done a nice job managing financials in a declining market and the evap/pot expansions hopefully will bear profits which dropped in 4Q while revenue rose. So, hopeful profits will bounce back 2019. I have managed EOLife markets myself and found it very difficult to do well. Such a bummer working ever smaller numbers, mind numbing actually, so I take my hat off to these folks.

What do people use to monitor portfolio: I use a "roll my own" spreadsheet and Morningstar's free service. Would like to find a better portfolio tracker though.

strangerdanger strangerdanger
Feb '19

Old time investors use the “roll your own” spread sheets and have done better than any other investors I know. If it works, don’t fix it. The spread sheet was used by my grandfather to turn Telmex penny stocks into enough money for grandma to live out the rest of her life. Too bad he passed away, before he could teach me how to do the same. I’m sure there’s utube videos about it. Probably portfolio management company tactics, as well. Right now, I’m my own manager. Interested in joining an investment group, if they still exist. Are they scams?

Guilty-Remnant Guilty-Remnant
Feb '19

Investment clubs not for me, but thank you.

My problem is it's difficult to track "drips," or "reinvestments" in your own spreadsheet. Doable but cumbersome.

Looking for a portfolio tracker that automates that better.

Another reason I like not to do those. Just let's me know the cost easier when everything has the same cost :>)

Kids college: We used everything that moved. First the UTMA's or UGMA's which are really just CDs in your kids name. Just ratchet it up to zero taxes or a tax you can afford knowing it's a smaller effective rate than you get. With interest at 3% now, it's a doable thing, recession-proof, but low yield. All investment experts poo-poo'd the idea over 529's. Yet during the 2008's, with kids in college, it was nice to have some of their accounts making money; 5% in those days for the entire five years of the recession and stock market collapse. Yeah, that felt good and looked good too.

For 529's, I used NJBest and CHET. CHET is good, NJBest is not. But there are 529 reviews out there to help you find one. Find one....

strangerdanger strangerdanger
Feb '19

Hi & @ SD,
Just at a glance at your CD, blue-chip Dividend, & 529 programs, my opinion&investment experience suggest you can perform better while decrease its risk by making these adjustments and/or apply these investments instead:

Instead of CDs (Locked where income/interest is Taxed), invest in Municipal Funds {Monthly income is Tax Free, Liquid @ low risk/higher returns) like:
PTEAX - NHMAX - ABHFX - SNTIX - MOTIX -

Instead of blue-chip dividend "stocks" (where all stocks are risky), invest in ETF replacements like: RDIV - PEY - FDL - RNDV - **SDYL **DVYL {**more risk but higher return + MONTHLY paid dividends, and ALL S&P500 or DowJones stocks only}

The fix on most/all 529's, is mostly based on the person's fund selections & time:
~ For the 'Time': Kids have many years before needing to touch the College funds; even so that kids don't need to pull ALL the money out of the 529 once they hit/enter college...the Standard withdrawal is spread-out over 4years (tuition+books+etc.), just saying even if the market tanks the year before the kid is planning to go into college, yes, his first year may take a hit, (1/4th of the total funds), but the 529 account should recover or move forward in the next year or by last/Senior 4th year.
~ For its 'Selections': {just like all IRA (qualified retirement) accounts} Don't buy Income, Bond, Low Yield investments in a 529 account. Go all out/go for Growth. To be on the safe side, ie: in NJBest's acct, place ALL funds in just its
+S&P 500 Index 529 Portfolio–Class Direct
{or if you will feel more comfortable, match with its:
+Franklin Growth Allocation 529 Portfolio–Class Direct fund}

Use (or transfer funds into) those Income or Bond funds in moderation: 1year *prior* the kid is going into college (50%...still leaving 1/2 in growth/S&P500 funds), moving the last batch (50%) when your kid is mid-way college/Sophmore year --- To max, optimize the account at best.

GL!

ftcfda@aol.com ftcfda@aol.com
Feb '19

Everyone should invest what they are able to. It’s not too hard to learn with a bit of reading.

BusinessGuy1984
Feb '19

I’m a big proponent of VFINX since I am a long way till retirement

Skippy Skippy
Feb '19

ftcfda: Thanks, good stuff.

Although I can't imagine you really think of a less risky investment than a CD, followed by T-bills, followed perhaps by Muni's. I mean on a Muni, you go as Detroit (or whatever city(s) involved) goes. There are zero guarantees. The word "volatility" is used. With CD's, you go as the Fed goes, totally insured (up to what, $250K now...). But interest is interest so better is better and the risk ain't that much more, unless you are buying into a fund, then a little more.

And, yes, I have Munis --- just not a 2019 twist for me, have had them for decades. Unlike CDs with their constant rate, Muni rates/values can vary over time, so there's that. Also, you can purchase CDs under your IRA or 401K (in my program), so tax sheltering easily done. Probably 90% of my CDs are tax free

For example, PTEAX, your first Muni fund choice has been a bit of a roller coaster of value over the years. Morningstar: "Principal Tax-Exempt Bond’s undersize yet seasoned team has implemented a straightforward approach, but greater levels of volatility than peers and an average expense ratio." So, with risk comes reward, but there is risk. A well rated fund.

I do like ETFs. It's like equities for idiots; just for me! My FIL used to really know his wine. He used to say that a "blend is just a group of good grapes trying to come together to become a great wine. It will never happen, but they can be a really good wine." Following this sage stock advice, I use ETFs when I like the bundle, the industry, but don't feel capable to pick a winner. When Trump took office, I knew he would do nothing for Health Care price reductions and he would pump up the volume with spending on defense. I know nothing about either industry and, frankly, don't want to know. So, I copped an ETF in both and today am riding a nice 30% profit over two years. Very lucky to hit on both.

Wish I had your advice for the college funds: I diversified and would have done better vis-à-vis your suggestion. Such is life. Again, you saw my use of UTMA and UGMA CDs there; if rates hit 4% I would suggest folks look at that as a nice diversification in their college plans. I know getting 5% during the last recession, the whole thing, after the stock crash, felt bery bery good to me.

strangerdanger strangerdanger
Feb '19

Glad&Thanks SD -- I agree with you, reminding me it's always good to have a low or least investment-risk position (like CDs) as part of anyone's portfolio.

Since old 5% Bank Savings Accounts are long gone to come back,
[...even with the Fed's many rate increases, we still don't see Banks jumping to increase the interest rate we're supposed to be getting on our savings accounts!?], forcing us seek higher/riskier places to park cash (earn interest on our savings), I think the medium between avoiding the CD's "early withdrawal penalty lock" yet retaining it's less risk along higher rate returns are in High Savings Accounts, a.k.a. Money Market funds, such as these at quality banks/financial firms at: https://www.bankrate.com/banking/savings/rates/

FDIC insured, Liquid to redeem, Rates comparable to 2-5yr CDs: https://www.bankrate.com/cd.aspx


I like your IRA idea to cut most of its taxes; Just in case, people like me who are phased-out/can't get the tax-break making an IRA contribution (because I'm already in a 401k or those in another Qualified Retirement plan), I'd place them in an IRA Roth instead -- Where (though you can't take it's interest gains without penalty until you're older 59 1/2), everyone can take out our initial, original, savings/investment principal WITHOUT any penalty/charges, for another investment or use, (given you already established the IRA Roth account in 5years) which about matches up the same time/duration you're getting from "pumping it into CD's at 3-3.5%".

https://www.rothira.com/taking-early-withdrawals-your-roth-ira

Thanks again -- And for those with kids thinking of entering the workforce with careers at firms/small businesses which are NOT necessarily geared or offer a 401k plan, it would be much more flexible to set/put money aside in an IRA Roth instead: https://www.fidelity.com/retirement-ira/roth-ira-kids

https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/investing/5-of-the-best-benefits-of-a-roth-ira/

ftcfda@aol.com ftcfda@aol.com
Feb '19

I am too old for a Roth: I opened a couple but does not make sense today...for me. For the younger set, sure.... Roth's the way to go and beyond the tax difference, nothing else really changes.

Money market, CDs, some of this is based on your own style and economic place. I have enough to invest even after shoving as much as I can into CDs. I am very comfortable with CDs and not about to go from 3% to 2.2% just for liquidity. I got that from other places. But that's just me, just my style. Depression Mother who ONLY bought CDs, and only let Dad have a very small portfolio. Worked for her.

To me, CDs are no problem, no trouble. Interest don't change, don't' have to check, fully insured, just easier for me. Yes, they have termination fees; on a 5yr from Ally it's 6-months interest or 1.55% on their 3.1% current offer. You can do a breakeven if you need the money. I cancel/reup if interest moves about 2% points. So, recently I dumped a lot of 1%-ers, reupped at 3% and think I have a 9 mth breakeven after which I make an extra 2% for 4.x years.

Everyone has different termination fees; Allys used to be ridiculously low like you could cancel/reup for .5% point and make money. A few years back they changed. Others charge differently depending on where you are in the cycle --- half way pays less than 1 month in. If you think you might terminate, and I always do, go to check the process just to precondition yourself.

On a $1,300 penalty, I got the $350 reduction in taxes, so really paid $950 probably making my breakeven about 6 months.

But yes, liquidity should always be considered. Funny story, it's Carter as President, interest skyrocketing at 15%, and I open a 6-month CD in my belief in the liquidity concept (and this was my only cash). I still have that money today and laugh at my ignorance. But to me, the world had always been 15% and I didn't know it could go single-digits. I could of made 50% more over the five years...…

Yeah, I use IRAs to invest in everything including equities. While you can delay taxes on the profits; you can't deduct the losses --- always remember that!

CD interest rates are affected by the FED, but also by the Banks and the market. If the loan business goes gangbuster, rates go up. If the Banks decide to buy market share, the rates go up. Last time, Wachovia spear-headed it and everyone else foolishly followed. Didn't' take too long for the crash to happen after that.

strangerdanger strangerdanger
Feb '19

27,000......

Calico696 Calico696
Jul '19

27,000......

That and $5 will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks. The current bull market started just over 10 years ago in March, 2009. The average bull market lasts about 4 1/2 years so we are way over due for a major correction in the markets. It's basically pure greed driving the markets right now and there hasn't been any major crisis to spook the markets. Any uptick in inflation or unemployment could throw the market into a tailspin very quickly at this point. And it could get ugly. But who knows...it's just one big national casino and you keep playing until the cards turn on you.

thomasnj thomasnj
Jul '19

Be careful how you count, there are a number of bull markets lasting more than 4.5 years. The average just tells part of the story. There are a couple bulls bigger than this one; just not as long —-> they got bigger faster. There are a number that came close to being bigger but fizzled out a tad early.

Two truths; we are probably closer to the end of the bull than the beginning and wherever we are in the economy, we have never been here before.

That said, protect yourself when you can and don’t rely on economic history to predict the future.

The December correction was a technical bear inside the bull —> it was a massive correction yet gratefully short-lived. There have been other modifications along the way that get wiped out with a ten year view There are still many massive uncertainties in the economy - trade wars, federal debt, wealth distribution, frozen wages and even immigration could easily bring the house down not to mention that thing we can’t see yet to come.

I have moved much to fixed assets. Unfortunately, recent fed actions make that more difficult today. For equities, whenever ahead by over 5 points, and that’s pretty easy today, I set my lower limits high enough that I can hopefully catch that falling knife. Best I can so to avoid losing my investment dollars in the next big one that is coming. And maybe fealize some gains as well. For rest assured, it will come. And like I said, we are closer to the end than the beginning.

StrangerDanger StrangerDanger
Jul '19

Yield curve inverted back in March:

An inverted yield curve is when the yields on bonds with a shorter duration are higher than the yields on bonds that have a longer duration. It's an abnormal situation that often signals an impending recession.

https://www.thebalance.com/inverted-yield-curve-3305856

The Venezuelan Stock Market’s on Fire as Inflation Heads to 1,000,000%

https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-venezuelan-stock-markets-a-bank-as-inflation-heads-to-1-000-000-1532517514


Yes ru, it is an important indicator. It has been ticking up for a few years. Will it regulate down or burst?

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldYear&year=2019


PTN, get in now!

not this kid not this kid
Jul '19

Ijay —regulate down or burst? Do you mean the market? How about both?

Kid: Why? To make you feel better about your loss?

StrangerDanger StrangerDanger
Jul '19

Market is GREAT under Trump. Hoping he wins reelection.
If he loses, sell Everything.


2008 and 1929 happened under GOP presidents, so we have to keep watch on those guys … history repeats if we take our eyes off the ball.

Andy Loigu Andy Loigu
Jul '19

Like I said, we are closer to the end than the beginning; the question will be how do we handle the downturn. We got the combination of incompetence and an empty toolbox to combat whatever happens. Not like we can lower interest rates to a point where's there's an effect; good chance we can't find any investor's for a stimulus; tax cuts ain't fast enough, ------> not many tools for the incompetent to take advantage of. We are most certainly in a corner, re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic, and waiting for the ricochet.

"See the blind man
Shooting at the world
Bullets flying
Ohh taking toll

If you've been bad
Oh Lord I bet you have
And you've not been hit
Oh by flying lead

You'd better close your eyes
Ooohhhh bow your head
Wait for the ricochet" very Deep Purple

strangerdanger strangerdanger
Jul '19

"Like I said, we are closer to the end than the beginning; the question will be how do we handle the downturn."


I'm not a market expert but (again) my gut is telling me we can't keep going up up up - even with a few bad days mixed in - indefinitely before the next big correction. We've been on a pretty good up slope for ~11 years now... I'd think that something is coming due to drop the market back in to the low 20K's (for the DOW) for a while before the next "hump" that drives it into the 30K's (hopefully).

As far as how "we" handle it... I'm thinking of temporarily moving a good chunk of my investments into something safer by next year's election. Regardless of who wins and why, I could see either result causing a bit of market turmoil.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I kicked myself a bit for not listening to my gut at the end of last year when I was pondering the same move (but didn't pull the trigger) and things dropped ~15-20% for a few months.

Mark Mc. Mark Mc.
July 23rd

There are many things and ways to protect your investments from any upcoming "big correction", crash or downturn - Some are simple, others are complex

-The problem why people STILL fall into the Bear Market's trap is:
1) People are lazy...that they don't want to do the extra work to protect their portfolio/investments
2) Investors only have such enough funds to be on 1 side of the market....only Long instead of hold some Short or Protecting positions [like Stop-Loss orders, hold some Inverse ETFs {like SPXU, SDOW, SQQQ, SRTY}, utilize Options, or move positions to Treasuries {like TMF,TYD}, Municipals or Gold {like UGLD}]
3) People (smartly) don't like moving positions to Cash...Agreeing Timing the Market is a lose game (where the Market "House" always has the Advantage/Edge)

So then only those who can comfortably BALANCE &/or nicely ALLOCATE their portfolio...
[ie: within a: 65%Growing investments, 25% Income generating investments {like QYLD,RYLD,SDYL,DVYL}, & 10% Alternate investments *such as REITs, Energy, Gold/Currencies, or InverseETFs mentioned earlier* portfolio],
...are able to then simply just change the PERCENTAGES:
(ie: from above 65-25-10% to 55-35-10% when your gut says "Choppy Markets are Ahead", or 75-15-10% when your gut says "This Trump Market is going up to a 30K Dow", etc.)
...to be 'protected' from falling into the Bear Market's trap...as often you have or others have done in the past.

Yes, that does trim your usual 'Sky High' returns, but also trims your 'Bloodbath' losses --- so you can at least say you were "Not your own enemy", this time around.

A little Rebalancing or Reallocating your portfolio into a "Pie-Chart" should best have you set back & sleep well, knowing your portfolio's new "Makeover" is set/ready to +Weather the storm+.

ftcfda@aol.com ftcfda@aol.com
July 24th

For me- I believe it is time to exit the market and put the proceeds into more stable assets- savings bonds and CD’s. Will still get a small yield while preserving my principle.
So even if the market continues to run up, even 10% ( which I doubt), I would lose only 7% (10% upside maybe, minus 3% locked in yield) of potential eanings.
I can deal with a short term loss of opportunity in order to preserve my balances.
My read is that the markets are substantially “ginned up” as we continue to generate debt and keep interest rates artificially low.
I choose not to deal with a 20% market drop emotionally (definition of a bear market) as well as the time required to get back to even.
Personal debt has eclipsed the highs of the 2008 downturn and auto loans/ leases over 90 days in arrears has reached an all time high.
My Real Estate I’ll hold- rental at market with good tenants (15 yr mortgages) and my own residence.
Just my humble opinion.

Stymie Stymie
July 24th

2 & 10 year Bond is inverted has been inverted will be inverted for a long time to come. It's over peeps. Get out!

What does Cramer say - stick with the Market...hang in there - stay the course.
lol

A cheerleader for the Elites...while they are running for the exits - your holding their paper.

-The spread between two- and 10-year Treasury yields is below zero, an occurrence that's preceded each of the past seven recessions.

-While yield-curve inversions have preceded all recessions since 1950, when exactly a recession might occur is still unclear.

The market's favorite recession indicator just flashed its biggest warning since 2007

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/yield-curve-inversion-deepest-since-2007-flashes-recession-signal-2019-8-1028478146


Don't believe me?

Gold: $1519.90
Silver: $18.38

The Elites hate regular people going into to Gold but they hate 1 thing more and that is people going into Silver and Silver be running...and they are getting exposed for Silver rigging. JP Morgan Silver Traders are getting indicted all over the yard.

Just saying you may want to get your hands on some,

Another ex-JP Morgan precious metals trader pleads guilty to ‘spoofing,’ is cooperating with Feds

-A former J.P. Morgan precious metals traders pleaded guilty Tuesday to criminal charges of manipulating the precious metals markets for nine years.

-The Justice Department is conducting multiple criminal investigations into big banks with the cooperation of traders who have pleaded guilty to spoofing-related crimes.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/20/another-ex-jp-morgan-precious-metals-trader-pleads-guilty-to-spoofing.html


I really don't believe "elistist," have anything to do with this. Money does, but not the elitist class as most define it. More likely to find Nationalists playing in this field. No matter, you can't beat these guys without selling your soul and losing your life (time). But one can eke out a meager profit without sleepless nights if a gamblers caution is exercised. So far, so good.

Previously, with the market being too high IMO based on the numbers and investments/tax cuts being held, not spent, I had moved from equities to mutuals but with the market chugging along in 2018 that did not work as well as I wanted. I dumped the stragglers, kept the stars (defense and medical bought due to current administration budget and policy), and picked up a manager. By the end of 2018, I got fed up with the lack of an exit plan or auto-sell plan; I mean what's the use of mgt. if they can't do better than I for exit.

So, for the first time in my life, I dumped it all at the beginning of the 2018 EOY crash, pure luck on the timing. Then, in a bold move, I used my modified Buffet strategy picking up blue chip dividend stocks and I caught the trough almost top dead center. Also, even though I was at 30% profit in 12-months so very high, I picked up more of those defense/medical mutuals. This was not luck.

In three months, I covered my losses on paper, and in six months I had very profitable stop orders in for protection and as of now, only have a few dogs in my kennel (darned KHC Buffet owned stock that I still believe in, but some ketchup, would you?), and 20% in short term capital gains plus 4% dividend interest. And a lot of cash. For 2019, profit-wise, I completed in 7 months. A good year.

Meanwhile, back at the beginning, I bought many CDs at 3% at what now appears to be the peak. Even took early termination fees to upgrade to the better rate with a 1-year breakeven. They will go for five years or right through the recession. Did the same thing in 2008/9 with Wachovia at 5% riding right into 2013; that was very restful.

So, I have some CDs at 3%, some equities dogs paying 4% dividends (higher if I use current prices :<(, a few mutuals, and a pile of cash that is looking for either a bond or a bond fund to ride easy for a bit. Probably a bond fund.

Bottom line for me: CDs and bonds, but no more CDs since less than 3% now.

Don't think I will even try to ride the roller coaster given the underlying numbers don't look like growth to me. Until the trade wars end, there is no stability and, worse yet, a lot of unstable characters with their hands on the levers.

strangerdanger strangerdanger
August 31st

How is everyone doing? Hope folks made those moves and the 401's are treading water at least. For me, it will be a good year, I am pretty sure.

As I noted, I have moved off the DOW roller coaster and moved much to CDs, which I got at close to 3% around the end of last year. I dumped most of my equities, made a bundle with market about 27,000 and moved to bond / t-bill mutual's. Felt a little bad given the go-go market, but just wanted to sleep at night during the Holiday season.

So far so good, even with this latest downturn, sleeping little a baby ---- a baby that cashed in at a high spot and is still in the black at a 26,000 DOW.

Still have a few shares, all generating 4% dividend or better and some f-around cash to buy a few equities in the bargain basement at the trough, if I can. But does anyone have a good equity-target-price calculation formula? Seems to be as much art as science and can't seem to find a good published, simple, example. When I see the word "standard deviation," my eyes just glaze over...… Although, if it keeps going like this, I guess a 52-week low would suffice, ouch, :<(

strangerdanger strangerdanger
2 weeks ago

SD - what’s your current allocation? Not sure how you made 30% this year after selling most of your stock in 2018?


SD can time the market...


What’s an allocation? If you mean fixed assets vs equities, etc, I keep my stuff in funny “baskets” like pension rollover, company bonus, and parental gifts, so I just have a general idea only. I recently picked up a planner so I need to compute for him to recommend a plan. Will get back to you.

In 2018, I dumped the manager and whatever he bought — mostly mutuals — took a loss. But I held my two mutuals I bought post/for the new Presidents strategy — defense and medical - they were at 30% but I still bought more. And they continued to rise.

With the stuff I dumped, that’s when I caught new Buffet stocks in the trough at tge end of 2018, covered the loss from the mgr’s portfolio and came out about 20% plus 4% dividends selling till about 7/19 . Most sold automatically on lower limits and now are either CDs or Bond Mutuals which, of course, look OK after last week. Converted the defense and medical too.

And so now I hope to settle in for around 5-10% for the next six months at least and some nice sleep. Think a lot if the bond funds have a 6 month holding period. Still have a few dog equities and some telcom but the dividends are quite nice.

Still looking for that simple formula to set stock target pricing. You would think all the experts would be pitching theirs, but

IJay. — just been lucky a few times. No skill.

Strangerdanger Strangerdanger
2 weeks ago

Ok, but I wouldn't call Trump strategy (if he has one) to include medical. A positive strategy for medical for the citizens would tank the HMOs with all future payment at the lower medicare level.

For the next 6 months it will be tricky getting 5-10% at the end of 2020 Q1.

Good point about money manager, not needed and they suck about 1% from your account every year for doing little...


iJay --- just figured he would screw up fixing/enhancing healthcareand the prices would continue to rise. All came true! However, in hindsight, probably should have held.

Making 5-10% --- it depends. CD's coming in at a low 2.75% or so. Pretty poor, but safe bread n butter returns. The Bond mutuals have a dividend return which is pretty much assured, the bonds are less affected by downturns, and, if anything, may pick up some value. The muni's for example are chugging right along I think. Economy roars away -- I blew it and will live on 3%. Economy sputters and I will clear 5% pretty sure. Just looking to take a stress-breather for a bit. You kinda get where I am going ---- shelter....

If I read manufacturing and exports as being heading to the dumps, looks like I am on the right track. Jobs below expectations, especially mfg and services, but unemployment still very low, lowest since 1969. Market looks to start a bit down today, one would expect a pick-up due to jobs report but... gotta watch those October Fridays....

1% is about it. But who cares as long as bottom line is OK. My problem was their lack of an exit plan. You can't lower limit mutual's, you need a human or some sort of off-market based program. I felt neither and turned out I was right. Luckily I departed on the slide, not the trough. This new planner I have is free; you gotta love Fidelity. He won't do picks, but will suggest "strategy." Hey, I am always willing to listen.

So far, strategically speaking, he has ducked the stock target price formula...…. Really wish I could find some examples, answers, there rather than conversations resulting in way toooo much work to compute. So, I have my equities list, but the target prices seem a little loosey-goosey to me.

strangerdanger strangerdanger
2 weeks ago

What a roller coaster!

Guilty-Remnant Guilty-Remnant
2 weeks ago

"SD - what’s your current allocation?" For what it's worth.....

fixed income 29%
cash 52%
equities 9%
real estate 10%

strangerdanger strangerdanger
1 week ago

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