2019 Snow Thread

Gimme a Y! Gimme an A! Gimme an N! What’s it spell? Bryan! What’s it mean? Gimme Spring! Queue Darrin “Yes!!!! Snow!!!” In 3...2...1...


Dark sky is saying 2-4”.


Reality is a dusting


At least this time they brined the roads when precipitation and temps below freezing were actually expected.

Calico696 Calico696
2 weeks ago

Note the date in the topic: 12th is Sunday.


Channel 4 just,said it looks like it is going south of us.


The 12th is Saturday.


looks to be going south ... we will know more by Thursday ...

LibertyThinker LibertyThinker
2 weeks ago

As much as I love the snow, this weekend would be "sub-optimal" timing as the big high school fencing tournaments are at Drew this weekend. Hoping for a dusting...then we can get accumulation a day or two later for all I care!!


Proof that America is "dumbing down" .


So where are “our” weather experts. Sounds like a dusting for us on Sunday. Wondering if the weather watchers here agree.


I am here in SNJ. I will keep you all updated on our snow totals. Looks like an All day snow for Sunday and hopefully stopping around 3pm on Monday. We will see.

Mansfield mama Mansfield mama
1 week ago

This looks minimal and probably south. More importantly REAL winter looks to arrive around the weekend of the 19th (ish).

Bryan_NC Bryan_NC
1 week ago

Bryan, would you be hinting at snow or just cold?


Re: 2019 Snow Thread

.....

JeffersonRepub JeffersonRepub
1 week ago

Looking at Wunderground the long-range forecast is for a decent amount of snow NEXT weekend.


The cold is what I’m seeing Bessie but that’s easier to pinpoint in the long range than any storms. No doubt there will be storms to track but it’s too far out right now for any specifics.

bryan_nc bryan_nc
1 week ago

Like Bryan said - we are way too far out to forecast reliably precipitation amounts.....but why should reality stop us!

Weather Underground currently has more than 12" predicted for Friday to Monday (Jan 18-21)


We have about 3 inches here near Cape May and it is still snowing very lightly.

Mansfield mama Mansfield mama
1 week ago

a pretty dusting in Allamuchy - and it has just about stopped

4catmom 4catmom
1 week ago

Re: 2019 Snow Thread

A little over an inch in Whiting. Supposed to get an inch or so more, light snow coming down

thehazguy thehazguy
1 week ago

I'm doin my part for Darrin; haven't put the chains on yet :>)

Last night parked in front of the door, look what that did!

strangerdanger strangerdanger
1 week ago

The euro has shown a big snowstorm next weekend for several runs in a row.

bryan_nc bryan_nc
1 week ago

I saw that also ... thanks for pointing
It out first ... maybe make a new string ?

LibertyThinker LibertyThinker
1 week ago

I see weather underground has cut back on the percentage from 68 to 54


Plenty of time to grab liquer/bread for this one being a week out. It's gonna be a good one

Forcefed4door Forcefed4door
1 week ago

Some more snow falling near Cape May. Hope it stops soon.

Mansfield mama Mansfield mama
1 week ago

Still long range, but here's an ominous forecast:

Some weather models paint a very dangerous scenario for this weekend with a tight boundary between milder air to the south and cold air to the north producing a very potent winter storm system / blizzard for much of the central and north eastern / eastern portions of the US. In fact some computer models are forecasting multi states to receive widespread 1ft + of snowfall.

https://veryweather.co.uk/2019/01/mid-winter-freeze-to-engulf-much-of-the-us-in-dangerous-cold-and-potential-blizzard/?fbclid=IwAR3_qaCYQIp4c0VQ-oRxipPnMQHx6QbV1agJdjmNjM-QAFhGN8OEGXsWY0k

Mr. Resident Mr. Resident
1 week ago

The state should start brining the roads asap

Philliesman Philliesman
1 week ago

weather underground back up to over 80 percent


Should probably start a new thread. Is this supposed to be Sat.-Sun.?

Calico696 Calico696
1 week ago

So this next one I will chime in on and say I am EXCITED!!!! That last one knew was going to amount to nothing


First batch arrives Friday, next later Saturday into Sunday. However the model trends today aren't great for big snow. A shift west would has put you guys into more of a mix/ice event. But of course things can still change.

Bryan_NC Bryan_NC
1 week ago

Why not wait until we get closer to determine and then plan accordingly?

Awesome Awesome
1 week ago

@Awesome because if the ice is as bad at it possibly might be, some may quickly buy generators. There is no harm in being prepared.


Awesome, they may be forecasting for Jan 2020 already....

MeisterNJ MeisterNJ
1 week ago

Better start buying your generators, bread and milk for 2020.....hearing reports already its gonna be epic.

Snowpocalypse Snowpocalypse
1 week ago

@Snowpocalypse what are you hearing? What source?


Bryan - I am seeing the same thing ICE ... Everyone ... if this is a ICE storm it is going to cripple the area ... Please get your generators ready and enough spare gas to last a few days

LibertyThinker LibertyThinker
1 week ago

Video from EPAWA discussing both the 1/17-1/18 and 1/19-1/20 storms.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZSzQ4I0rTg&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR2Cq-x5RorflOEEmHJaTwz_8mqpMHB1m6Wm9Q7eckQyVIG5UQkV7IswCeM

Calico696 Calico696
1 week ago

Like we never had a ice storm before


Storm of the century

Philliesman Philliesman
1 week ago

Re: 2019 Snow Thread

Stores will be a zoo for the next 4 days. Sigh....

Calico696 Calico696
1 week ago

This will be the worst snowstorm to strike since the last worst snowstorm

Iamrite Iamrite
1 week ago

Re: 2019 Snow Thread

I'm ready, bring on the ice


From NWS:


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

For Thursday night into Friday, some accumulating snow is expected
with the highest amounts in the Lehigh Valley/Berks County, northwestern
New Jersey and the Poconos. Hazardous travel is possible and this
may have a higher impact on the Friday morning commute. A Winter
Weather Advisory may be needed for at least parts of the region.

For Saturday and Sunday, a significant winter storm is probable,
however the details including precipitation types and impacts are
less certain at this time. A flash freeze is possible Sunday
afternoon and night as arctic air pours into the area.

Calico696 Calico696
1 week ago

Really would not pay attention to any details at this point. Fairly good chance a winter storm will affect the area Fri-Sun (not non stop). Beyond that I guarantee you nobody knows anything. If they say they do then that's one less person you listen to from now on.

Bryan_NC Bryan_NC
1 week ago

I agree with LibertyThinker- he has a track record of being pretty accurate in the past with these storms. I would heed his advice and be ready for potential power outage and ice. Luckily- it is a holiday on Monday(schools are off, but some support staff has to be in the building), but some of us have to work :(

The Rhyme Animal The Rhyme Animal
1 week ago

Yeh the concerning thing to think about here is that whether it's a mix or mostly snow or changes to rain and back to snow/ice, an artic outbreak will follow. All that moisture without much time to melt is a recipe for disaster.

Bryan_NC Bryan_NC
1 week ago

Heh, heh, save that “they don’t know” post; you can reuse...

Cold and possible winds; too early yet but with those temperature drops, could be a breeze.

Winter had to settle in sometime.

Strangerdanger Strangerdanger
1 week ago

@ RA and Bryan - Thanks all I am saying "If" this a ice storm ... just be ready for it !!!
Still a bit early to be calling anything at this point ...

LibertyThinker LibertyThinker
1 week ago

In the mist of mass panic I made my bread & milk sandwiches too early and now they are soggy :-(


Re: 2019 Snow Thread

First call snow map from EPAWA for the Thursday-Friday snow.

Calico696 Calico696
1 week ago

The whole "bread and milk" mass panic thing isn't really what everyone says it is.

For example, say there is supposed to be a storm on Saturday and Sunday. Regular people don't normally like going shopping in snow (harder to park, can't push cart in lot, etc) so the folks who would normally shop on Saturday and Sunday now decide to do their normal shopping on Thursday and Friday. The stores can only stock a certain amount on the shelves, so when you get all those people just doing their normal shopping, it empties the shelves.

So many people think that the shelves are empty because everyone is worried about a Snowpocalypse and buy a ton more groceries than they need. Maybe a few people do, but I don't think there's that many.


I always think it’s funny that people make fun of people running to the store but they’re in the store too, or don’t they figure into the masses. The flip side is if you’re not in the store, why make fun of the people that are.


Parts of Europe have been getting pounded with incredible EPIC snows (Austria, Romania, Germany etc)

https://www.dw.com/en/snow-chaos-hits-southern-germany-austria/a-47070672

Lenny Rock Lenny Rock
7 days ago

I'm one of those people Bessie.....most people already have enough food and water to last a day or so till the plows clear the roads......most intelligent people should have emergency set ups just in case to begin with, whether its snow tornado earthquake etc etc.....these things happen. Seeing people freak out for some snow and ice when you live in the northeast is comical to me sorry. Not sorry. And for the love of God just stay off the roads this time.

Snowpocalypse Snowpocalypse
7 days ago

"And for the love of God just stay off the roads this time."


Hey now- that wasn't really the drivers' fault last time... forecasts were wrong, no pre-treatment was done, and NJ royally f--ked the whole snow clearing effort. That one was not the drivers' faults. I've never seen anything like that in my 30 years here.

JeffersonRepub JeffersonRepub
7 days ago

Can we just get over this grocery-store-before-a-storm shaming ridiculousness? It comes out every year and is just so stupid. Is it so hard to conceptualize that some people like the idea of stocking up before a storm so they can nestle inside and enjoy the feeling of not having to go out in bad weather?


+++Res2 What I do find entertaining is the number of people hitting the liquor stores before a storm.


Shoprite always seems to make a killing whenever they forcast snow


Don’t confuse the thurs fri snow (minor) with the sat sun. 2 separate storms.

bryan_nc bryan_nc
7 days ago

Has anyone heard of the approximate start time of the bad weather? They are saying Thursday night, but will it be late night or evening? I have an evening event and don't want to be stuck. Any info would be appreciated. Thanks,

Parental Unit Parental Unit
7 days ago

NOAA says "after 10pm" on thurs night, so the 1"-3" they predict will fall overnight thu-fri; changing to rain by 10am fri

JeffersonRepub JeffersonRepub
7 days ago

@ Bryan - TY - to the Group ... There are 2 storms as Bryan has pointed out ... The second storm is still to hard to call at this point and with the Gov Shutdown I am not sure how NOAA is handling getting accurate alerts sent to the general public ...

LibertyThinker LibertyThinker
7 days ago

NOAA seems to be exempt from the shutdown

From http://time.com/5492377/weather-forecasts-goverment-shutdown/



"Fortunately, much of the weather forecasting operations of the NWS’ parent agency — the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) — are exempted from the shutdown. Forecasters at local and national weather centers, along with technical and engineering staff, continue to provide the forecasts and warnings essential to safeguarding lives and property, though many staff are currently working without pay. Experts stress that Americans can continue to trust the predictions coming out of the NWS, despite a partially shut down federal government."

The Rhyme Animal The Rhyme Animal
7 days ago

Thank You - Rhyme Animal ...

LibertyThinker LibertyThinker
7 days ago

JeffersonRepub, thank you for the response. I will be able to attend my event and will be home long before 10. Now I just have to pray they are correct.

Parental Unit Parental Unit
7 days ago

I think the NWS/NOAA scaled back somewhat but they still do forecasts and essential alerts.

Bryan_NC Bryan_NC
7 days ago

It's the polar blast that will be the interesting part; that's one heck of a temperature change over a short period. Hopefully, the resulting winds will not be too severe or long-lasting.

strangerdanger strangerdanger
7 days ago

You have access to Shoprite's books Bug3?

MeisterNJ MeisterNJ
7 days ago

I used to work night crew...as soon as someone said snow...the store would get blown out..


An overall consensus of the models shows a pretty significant amount of ice on top of several inches of snow. Not a pretty picture. I would probably start getting things in order now if I were up there.

Bryan_NC Bryan_NC
7 days ago

Thanks Bryan ... Ok time to your gas and generator ready .... I am still waiting on the NOAA report ... for official timings and amounts ... Note on Monday it is going to get real cold and stay cold ...

LibertyThinker LibertyThinker
7 days ago

With two small kids, I buy milk three times a week and bread at least twice... if I don't get it today, chances are that I'll need it tomorrow and certainly by the day after.

As for booze, well.... they haven't made a bottle yet that will last more than 3 days... especially if there's shoveling involved (-;

ianimal ianimal
7 days ago

Re: 2019 Snow Thread

Maybe it should be required to prove you actually need milk!
yeah there's about a finger of milk in there, tomorrow's cereal may need some half'n'half if I don't get more milk


Re: 2019 Snow Thread

Latest map from EPAWA.

Calico696 Calico696
7 days ago

According to The Informer, snow will be coming from Toronto. Total accumulation should be approximately 12 inches throughout the weekend. Warmer temperatures on Sunday may bring periods of thundersnow, or as Jamaican meteorologist Shan Shakata calls it, a “boom-boom down”. Be safe and stay warm everyone!

Dr. Abner Belvedere
6 days ago

What time is it supposed to start getting bad on Saturday? Do we know yet? I have my one year old's birthday party starting at 1 and people should be out by like 4:00-5:00 and they're heading back to Connecticut. Wondering if we'll be okay or if I should cancel or move it to noon.


The Saturday snow / ice should not start until after sunset ... your day time plans should be fine !!!

LibertyThinker LibertyThinker
6 days ago

I was just on AccuWeather and it says it supposed to start around four on Saturday with a total of about 6?


From Dr. Edge.

Total possible snowfall accumulations BASED ON THE LATEST PROJECTED TRACK:

1-6 inches from southeast to northwest: Central NJ and Long Island

3-7 inches: New York City from southeast to northwest

6-10 inches: East Central PA, Northern NJ (excluding far Northwest NJ), Rockland and Westchester Counties in NY, and Fairfield County, CT

10-12 inches: far Northwestern NJ, Orange and Putnam Counties in NY

10-15 inches: southeastern sections of Northeastern PA

15-25 inches: northern sections of Northeastern PA

Total possible ice accumulations:

Quarter to half of an inch: Eastern Long Island and NJ Coast

Half inch to one inch: Northeastern PA, Central NJ, NYC, Western Long Island, and Southern Westchester County, NY

http://edgeweather.com

Calico696 Calico696
6 days ago

That much ice is going to be awful. Prepare now.

3wbdwnj 3wbdwnj
6 days ago

Never heard of Dr Edge. I find it incredibly hard to believe the coast sees that much ice. That never happens (unless it's sleet but ice to me is freezing rain). I don't care what the models say. Inland is a different story.

Bryan_NC Bryan_NC
6 days ago

Bryan.....

The link Calico posted includes this:

Total possible ice accumulations:

Quarter to half of an inch: Eastern Long Island and NJ Coast

Half inch to one inch: Northeastern PA, Central NJ, NYC, Western Long Island, and Southern Westchester County, NY

Half inch to inch and a half: East Central PA, Northern NJ, the rest of Southeastern NY State, Fairfield County, CT



What is your take on ice accumulation? Is there anywhere near this potential? I enjoy watching the weather and storms approach, and am up for an occasional big snow storm, but I have to believe that amount of ice followed by intense cold for days will be pretty tough!

Would love to know your thoughts - I know we are still a few days out, but something like this will require more extensive personal preparation than the average storm.

Thanks


I prefer Dr. Bryan.

MeisterNJ MeisterNJ
6 days ago

A longer read, but from the National Weather Service, for what it is worth....


Full discussion here:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off


Excerpt from above linked discussion:

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure across the area for Friday night and early Saturday
will move away Saturday afternoon. Fair weather for these time
periods with increasing clouds Saturday. Temperatures a little below
normal with 20s Friday night and 30s (North) and low 40s (South) for
Saturday.

The big action of the long term begins later Saturday as
strengthening low pressure advances across the TN Valley then across
VA/NJ by Sunday morning. Significant moisture and dynamics will
produce abundant amounts of precipitation across the forecast area.
Overall (melted) QPF is in the 1.5 to 3.0 inch range for the
period ending 00z Monday. The 3 major OP models have the greatest
QPF across cntrl NJ with the EC having the greatest totals and the
Canadian and GFE about 25% to 50% less. Much of what will fall
across the Delaware Valley and S/E will be rain while the southern
Poconos and nrn NJ will have mostly snow. Significant totals are
expected for this (3rd) day event so while watches have not been
issued now (mainly not to confuse issues with the short/near
system), we are rather confident that they will be issued later
today or tonight, at least of the N/W areas. Snowfall in these areas
could easily be 6 to 10 inches thru Sunday. Other factors to
consider will be how much mixed precip (sleet or perhaps some
freezing rain) may occur Saturday afternoon and evening as the
warmer air arrives.


A little about Doctor Edge he lives in Allamuchy.

http://edgeweather.com

7 million plus views to his blog ....


Dr. Edgerton's interest in weather developed when he was 11 years old and one of the strongest tornadoes to ever hit New Jersey, nearly hit his home, and yes this was right here in New Jersey. At 7:23pm on October 26th, 1981, an F2 tornado struck in Vienna, NJ (click here to view the information about this tornado from the National Weather Service Daily Historical Website, scroll down to October 26th). The very next day he went to the school library and learned everything he could about tornadoes and weather. Since then he became a volunteer Skywarn Weather Spotter for the National Weather Service and he has spotted several tornadoes in New Jersey over the past 20+ years.

Dr. Edgerton started following the weather models as soon as they became available to the general public on the Internet back in the mid 1990's. He has since installed and operated a personal weather station from his home which automatically transmits weather data to the National Weather Service. This data is then integrated into the computer models to help them forecast the weather. Click here to view Dr. Edgerton's weather station data on the Internet. Click here to view Dr. Edgerton's weather station data on the National Weather Service website.

Dr. Edgerton takes weather very seriously since he was nearly killed twice in car accidents by people who did not take the weather conditions seriously enough. This is the main reason Dr. Edgerton has such a strong desire to predict the weather without depending upon someone else to create a prediction for him. So, Dr. Edgerton is not a meteorologist, he is a true, "weather man". The term, "weather man" was developed years ago because, many of the weather personalities on the network television stations did not have degrees in meteorology; they were just entertainers who had an interest in the weather and a general understanding of how to predict the weather. To some degree this still holds true today. Some of the most famous, "weather men" do not have degrees in meteorology at all.

Dr. Edgerton was flattered by the fact that this blog and his weather forecasts were nationally recognized by CNBC Television when they called him to appear on the Closing Bell show with Maria Bartiromo on February 8th, 2013, the day of the blizzard in New York City. While Dr. Edgerton was unable to appear on such short notice that day, CNBC has requested that he call them prior to the next big storm and he looks very much forward to that opportunity.

This blog was not Dr. Edgerton's idea. It was the idea of the people with whom he worked. When Dr. Edgerton worked at Indian Hills High School in Oakland, NJ, he would share his weather thoughts and predictions with his co-workers. They felt that his forecasts and thoughts should be shared with all of you, and they created this blog for Dr. Edgerton and encouraged him to post his thoughts for all of you to view. Dr. Edgerton will continue to try and improve this blog in the future, based mainly upon the thoughts of those who utilize it. Dr. Edgerton hopes you find this blog helpful. Special thanks go out to Mike and Heather Michels, Jim Dunbar, Dave Conca, and Dan Bertelli of Indian Hills High School in Oakland, NJ, as well as Joe Diblasi, who were instrumental in producing this blog.

NotIn NJ Anymore NotIn NJ Anymore
6 days ago

From HTPD's Facebook page:

**JCP&L - Monitoring Weather and Prepared to Respond**

Jersey Central Power & Light (JCP&L) meteorologists are closely monitoring the developing weather conditions. JCP&L is prepared to activate its storm response and Incident Command System plans.

In the event outages occur due to severe weather, customers without power are encouraged to report their outage by calling 1-888-LIGHTSS (1-888-544-4877), clicking the “Report Outage” link on www.firstenergycorp.com, or by texting out to 544487.

Customers should immediately report downed wires to 1-888-LIGHTSS (1-888-544-4877) or call their local police department. JCP&L reminds customers to stay away from downed wires, even if they believe they are no longer carrying electricity. Extra caution should be used in areas where downed lines are tangled with trees or other debris. Motorists are cautioned to treat intersections with inoperable traffic signals as four-way stops.

Calico696 Calico696
6 days ago

Bryan, isn't an inch of ice pretty unheard of?

https://weather.com/news/news/ice-storm-damage-impacts-20121123


Disastrous would be more like it. The wind may be our friend if it stops it from sticking to the wires and maybe blows some off the trees before it blows the trees over.

At those temps, recovery will be time consuming.

We need to be under .25 to be safe, .5 is when stuff starts falling. I think.

strangerdanger strangerdanger
6 days ago

When the high tension towers collapse..then it is disastrous...right now its just a simple winter storm


This is from 11 hours ago, but it is an EAPWA video describing the crazy icing possibility. Yikes!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oe-34Uo2hb4

Calico696 Calico696
6 days ago

Great explanation of what may be coming...... At the very least, stay tuned in to how this materializes!


yes an inch of pure freezing rain would be pretty very damaging.

This is the benchmark ice storm. It says 4" which is hard to believe. Prior to that the benchmark was 2".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_1998_North_American_ice_storm

Bryan_NC Bryan_NC
6 days ago

Around the 8 minute mark for those who want to skip ahead. He's also saying potentially an inch of ice.

https://weather.com/news/news/ice-storm-damage-impacts-20121123
'Crippling'
Widespread accumulations of over 1/2 inch.

With widespread ice accumulations of over 1/2 inch, there is severe tree damage and power outages may last for days.

The most devastating storms contain ice accumulations of an inch or more.


It's official - 11:00 PM tonight a snow emergency. Just came out over Nixle.


Dr Edge is fantastic - I highly recommend following. Uses radar maps from all over the world, and is quick to correct himself as things change. Been following him for years - and yes, I did my food shopping today thanks to ;)


Remember, tonight is not that big of a deal. We will probably only see an inch or two and it should be moved through by tomorrow morning's commute.

Keep your eye on Saturday into Sunday, that is the potential event you want to watch as it approaches and unfolds!


NWS has issued a preparedness package:

https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf


Oh boy it is looking that NOAA is saying since we have the elevation we could be seeing more the 8 inches of snow and we are so close to maps I am reading that 12 inches or more is so close … the starting time has not moved (4pm ish) I would try to be off the roads by 8pm as the storm will start dropping and dropping fast … (Bryan) please chime in why they upped the total and pushed a higher amounts of snow close to H Town area … (and yes there will be ice) ...

LibertyThinker LibertyThinker
5 days ago

More snow = less ice...its a good thing


@Liberty, it looks like some of the models pushed the 32-degree line further south allowing for more snow and sleet and less freezing rain and accumulating ice in our area.

3wbdwnj 3wbdwnj
5 days ago

Re: 2019 Snow Thread

ya' all gotta run out and get some stuff man, i mean like right NOW!

GreyHawk GreyHawk
5 days ago

Today's video from EPAWA.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZqRL7bYE0Y&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR0iRRxDmagJWfCmUM8LWt5ipSB85PhXfuHm7wri9tC3QAMJMm6q534rMCk

Calico696 Calico696
5 days ago

These storms are always so tough to predict. We know it's coming but predicting amounts is hard because it's so tough to know precipitation types. I'm onboard with the 4-8" the NWS is predicting. I think when you wake up Sunday it may look more like 3-6" because it will compact from the sleet/freezing rain. Either way I don't think the freezing rain situation looks as dramatic as it did a few days ago. Looks like .1-.25. So not good but not terrible. Also when that falls on top of snow it tends to be less impactful from my experience. The main idea is that there looks like there will be a bit more sleet and a bit less freezing rain so that helps but there will be some sleet accumulation too.

Bryan_NC Bryan_NC
5 days ago

As Bryan oft says: it's still early yet. Prepare for something in between current and the Armageddon once forecasted in case the path moves again. Trend is better for us, but could change.

strangerdanger strangerdanger
5 days ago

Re: 2019 Snow Thread

Thanx all for updates. For those who like maps...

Golden rule Golden rule
5 days ago

Sorry. Not clear. Anyway, less ice!

Golden rule Golden rule
5 days ago

I've been at Planning Board meetings the last two nights until 11:30, so not only do I need to stop at Shoprite for a few things after work, I need to go to Bourbon Street as well... I've informed my wife that she shouldn't wait up, lol.

ianimal ianimal
5 days ago

Warren County upgraded to Winter Storm Warning at 3:20 by the NWS. 5-10 inches of snow expected, but little to no ice, thank god.

ianimal ianimal
5 days ago

Anyone notice the large gaps in there predictions? 3-10". 5-10". 6-14". So it's either the low side or possibly double. Is our technology getting worse? Haha

Forcefed4door Forcefed4door
5 days ago

FF4D, I think we're going to be close to the snow/ice line which would impact the totals significantly.

ianimal ianimal
5 days ago

"I think we're going to be close to the snow/ice line which would impact the totals significantly."


That seems to happen quite alot here in recent years...

JeffersonRepub JeffersonRepub
5 days ago

A state of emergency was declared by Governor Murphy. There is a ban on commercial traffic north of I-95, excepting the Turnpike. Stay off the roads if you can.

Calico696 Calico696
5 days ago

Re: 2019 Snow Thread

Updated snow map from EPAWA.

Calico696 Calico696
5 days ago

Re: 2019 Snow Thread

And the ice map.

Calico696 Calico696
5 days ago

Thanks, Dana!

Wow, an emergency? Really? Seems a bit extreme for this storm. I mean, just because NJ botched the handling of the last one doesn't mean EVERY snow storm is an "emergency" now.... LOL

JeffersonRepub JeffersonRepub
5 days ago

While the timing might be early to start the SoE, every agency forecasting is calling this a major storm with potential sever icing. Not extreme to call for SoE.


.05"-.15" isn't a SoE. While there is a small area of the state that might get .35", and that is more concerning, I think they jumped the gun.

JeffersonRepub JeffersonRepub
5 days ago

And if he didn't call the SoE people would be complaining! If you put people in a lose-lose situation, people will never win! BTW, my husband used to plow for a company that was subcontracted for the state and Christie did the same things at times. I can begin to tell you how many times he sat waiting for snow to hit and he never dropped the plow. We didn't complain bc he still got paid! Other times he was called to the highway after the roads already got bad. Let us just remind everyone to stay safe and hope it is not so bad!


I guess we'll all know when it happens, let the saying goes, "time will tell."

Mrs. Pipes```` Mrs. Pipes````
4 days ago

This evening's EURO and NAM models have trended WARMER tracking the low up into central NJ. If this keeps up, tomorrow will be plain rain for everyone.

Lenny Rock Lenny Rock
4 days ago

That would be great! I am not a snow fan!


My Iphone weather indicates a high of 12 degrees on Monday.
That is brisk.


Snow totals trending down. Ice totals trending up. Be careful out there later today.

CraftBeerBob CraftBeerBob
4 days ago

Agree with lowering snow amounts. Just too much warm air above according to the models. I think 3-6" sounds reasonable with up to .25" freezing rain and 1/2" of sleet.

Bryan_NC Bryan_NC
4 days ago

So, if this is going to change to all rain, anyone have any idea about when that will happen sunday AM?

Don't want to clear the snow before the ice finished... of course, with the flash freeze coming, even the RAIN will be an issue when it turns into ice. Definitely going to be using the salt on the driveway for this one, I think.

JeffersonRepub JeffersonRepub
4 days ago

From Weather Works this morning:
The 8 am report for our area from Weather Works shows light snow starting 3-5 this afternoon, getting heavier into the night (4-7 inches) and mixing with sleet/freezing rain between 11 pm - 2 am. Change over to freezing rain 2-4 am. You know the routine: don't be on the roads unless you absolutely must, have water and other preparations in place in case the power goes out and check on your neighbors.


The question at hand is when to salt and when to get the snow off the driveway. Do you try to clear before or after the freezing rain and then when do you salt. You don't want the rain to wash away all the salt. Deep thoughts!!!

CraftBeerBob CraftBeerBob
4 days ago

Agreed. I don't want 3 - 8 inches of snow getting waterlogged then freezing to a solid block.


it's best to let the ice fall on top of the snow.

Calico696 Calico696
4 days ago

CBB when you find out let me know!

I’ve done both ways; clearing snow first seems easier but then you have to deal with the ice, and waiting till the end means a tough go of it. I think I’ll wait this time and see how it goes (and hope I’m not making a mistake!)

justintime justintime
4 days ago

Re: 2019 Snow Thread

EPAWA lowered our snow amounts considerably... 1"-3" total...

Does that mean more ice, or more RAIN I wonder?

JeffersonRepub JeffersonRepub
4 days ago

From the NWS regarding tomorrow.

NJZ001-007-008-201715-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-
1202 PM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

Winter Storm Warning.

Precipitation will come to an end by late day Sunday as a strong
cold front moves through with strong northwest winds and rapidly
falling temperatures as arctic air rapidly moves in. This will lead
to quick refreezing of wet and slushy surfaces causing very icy
conditions.

Dangerous wind chills are possible Sunday night through Tuesday.

Calico696 Calico696
4 days ago

Normally you're right Calico, but if we wait till morning with 5 or 6 inches of snow mixed with the heavy rain it's going to be one giant Slurpee. Problem is, the snowblower won't throw that slush. The temperature is supposed to drop fast tomorrow, You don.t want 5 or 6 inches of frozen slush before you can shovel it. Hate to have to run the snowblower at 1 or 2 in the morning before the rain starts. Just going to have to watch this one closely.


what I haven't been able to understand is that any weather person I have watched has run the models and said snow all the while the radar is showing mostly rain for NJ.


Re: 2019 Snow Thread

We still got a ways to go here folks, but 3:30am NWS model shows 3-5 inches snow, probably 5 for us and up to .22 inched ice, and that's for us, Morristown and Allentown. Sussex at .18 and New Brunswick at .02

.25 is when stuff starts falling into the power lines and .5 it falls a lot.

So you can see the ice line running from Allentown to Morristown, a bit weird.

More snow = less ice and we have a good chance to be in the snow, especially at the higher elevations.

They also backed the gusts down, still going to be very windy, but perhaps not gale force gusts.

Still early, there will be an update this afternoon.

strangerdanger strangerdanger
4 days ago

Lol! I hear you Whip. I was just talking to one of my friends saying that it seems all the channels and websites can't agree on anything except that there is a storm coming our way followed by a blast of freezing cold air.

Just Saying.... Just Saying....
4 days ago

Re: 2019 Snow Thread

Here's the ice report; the line seems real strange to me; usually we seem different than Morristown and Allentown.

Winds supposedly 10-15 tonight, 10-20 for the rest of the event, which will be a Godsend from the 20-30 with higher gusts previously reported.

I will wait till morning to plow, want to wait till over but that means like a 10am or 11am plow and the cold starts hitting at 9 - 10 am going below freezing at 2pm. I want to, at latest, be in that window but as far in front of 2 pm as I can be.

At least that's the current plan :>( What a strange storm, or is it two storms?

strangerdanger strangerdanger
4 days ago

RA - I hear you. I plan on shoveling the first three inches or so of snow and then leaving the balance of snow that falls for the ice to fall on.

Calico696 Calico696
4 days ago

Re: 2019 Snow Thread

From NJ101.5.

http://nj1015.com/winter-storm-warning-limited-snow-significant-ice-extreme-cold/

Calico696 Calico696
4 days ago

As of 3:30pm, starts 7-8 ish; 3-5 inch snow, looks like 5 ish, ice glaze and a good amount of rain. Warning is cancelled so must be some confidence.

Still cold; still windy follows, but hopefully few gusts, no one saying 40mph or higher, get that shoveling/plow/blow done before 2pm if you can to beat the fast freeze.

Prepare for stuff like locks to get frozen if wet.

Strangerdanger Strangerdanger
4 days ago

Re: 2019 Snow Thread

Love this! LOL

Calico696 Calico696
4 days ago

You can shovel a foot of snow & ice with that POWER breakfast.

happiest girl
4 days ago

Although it would not be my choice, it's probably much healthier than what a typical baby boomer shovels into their gullets. With a Lipitor to boot.
A Chris Christie diet is not healthy, does not help you shovel a foot of snow, and makes you a heart attack candidate...

dodgebaal dodgebaal
4 days ago

I think I've eaten more avocados in the last 8 months than I had in the previous 45 years, lol. That toast stuff will kill you, though... and almond milk? I've eaten a lot of almonds... don't recall seeing a nipple on any of them.

ianimal ianimal
4 days ago

Any snow totals yet?


Snow and ice totals are dropping significantly. NWS currently has Hackettstown at about 3-4" of snow and they have no ice accumulation.


Avacados, how did God make a fat filled fruit.

Strangerdanger Strangerdanger
4 days ago

Snow just started a few moments ago .... SNOW.

"Some Neige' Other (than) Water" (Neige is French for snow).


Oops this storm is a BUST! HAHA!


Wow you’re not kidding, LJ. I was looking forward to putting the new snowblower through it’s paces but 3-5”? Sheesh, the storm’s a wimpster.

Consigliere
4 days ago

Snow kidding?

Andy Loigu Andy Loigu
4 days ago

If they get the roads salted as the temperatures rise to 40 degrees, the wind in combination with the salt, will dry the road surfaces. There may be some patchy black ice, but at least it will not paralyze the traffic.

Keep the fingers crossed.....

Embryodad Embryodad
3 days ago

looks like we dodge a big ice storm... so my plan worked … get fresh gas for generator … test generator … have all firewood loaded into house … not complaining just happy … get your shoveling the slop done as soon as possible ...

LibertyThinker LibertyThinker
3 days ago

anyone know how 46 is from town to great meadows?


Same as any other rain storm above freezing ha

Forcefed4door Forcefed4door
3 days ago

Liberty Thinker, I greatly appreciate your plan. Please make sure you use it for every other storm prediction, I'm counting on you, LOL. Good that you were prepared, but better that you didn't need it.


If you want to be throughly over prepared- get out to your vehicle today before the temps drop and dry off your door seals and treat them with a protective coating-such as sprayable silicone. It may make your life less stressful if you need to use your car tomorrow and want to get in the door you normally use when your driving.

The Rhyme Animal The Rhyme Animal
3 days ago

Everyone always overreacts to snow storms due the media blowing things out of proportion every time. They make people panic by thinking you’re going to be stuck in your house for days, when in reality it’s just for a couple of hours, while they clean the roads off. Another perfect example was the “horrible” snow storm last night.

The great thing is, while everyone freaked out and ran to the stores yesterday, I didn’t and will get to enjoy quiet ones today.

Psychological warfare at its best.


You know we dodged a bullet here. A little shift and it coulda been 8 inches of this slop followed by 40 degree drop to below zero.

I call the forecasting OK on this one and am thankful to be prepared. I even think its a bit early to say over prepared.

I mean how do they know about the next artic plunge so far in advance. Its amazing.

Strangerdanger Strangerdanger
3 days ago

Are they ever going to get this right? This is like the little girl who called "wolf"... no one will pay any attention to the weather next time!


EXACTLY Finest!! I just saw New Jersey 12 reporting from Budd Lake telling us how lame this storm was. I was out walking the dog earlier...it reminds me of a spring snowstorm. We will see how the "deep freeze" goes.

Just Saying.... Just Saying....
3 days ago

Full-on RAIN!!!! YES!!!!! Glad I didn't go out yet..... MELT MELT MELT!!!!

I'll go out after the rain stops to scrape whatever slush may be left, before it freezes.

JeffersonRepub JeffersonRepub
3 days ago

One good blizzard like we had in the late 70s and then people would understand why the news media panics


Even if a massive blizzard came - who cares it’s all over with in a couple of hours and cleaned up 2 hours later. You’ll hear on the news now, “be careful out there roads are slick and black ice is everywhere, you’re gonna die if you go out there”. Meanwhile reality is, roads are just wet and there are some slushy spots on the side of the roads.

Don’t listen to the media, it’s corrupt and meant to intimidate and make you feel insecure.


Shoveling the slop before the rain stops might be the way to go- the rain will wash away that bottom coat of slush that you can't get fully up. Then with the wind- hope for ice free and dry- you may have another hour of rain tops to get it done- after that- whatever is still there- as slight as it may be- won't melt away until Tues or Wednesday. Is it heavy? Oh yes.

The Rhyme Animal The Rhyme Animal
3 days ago

thank you Liberty, much appreciated!


Dead right finest! I'm trying to figure out why they are going nuts b/c it's going to be 15 degrees for ONE DAY! It's called winter and it happens every year. Absolutely ridiculous but the sheep love it. Gives em something to post on their Facebook.


To all the pseudo meteorologists on here
.......womp womp womp!! 0-2 for the season......

Snowpocalypse Snowpocalypse
3 days ago

Meteorology: look at 40 computer models and pick one. Bound to get one right every now and then.


What I want to know Bryan is that if this first snow came from the SW, then why were our winds coming from the East?

strangerdanger strangerdanger
3 days ago

low pressure systems rotate counter-clockwise.


Today was the best day to do errands! Shop Rite in Mansfield - empty! Bottle King - empty! Wawa - practically empty!


Holy C batman, I’m watching upper altitude clouds at about 30mph from the W to wsw and lower level from the n at 60mph simultaneously. Creepy.

Strangerdanger Strangerdanger
3 days ago

I live in Sussex county and we got about 8 inches of snow before it changed to ice and finally to rain. The rain never melted the ice, just made it slick. There is still ice on the power lines and trees that I am hoping melts off before the arctic air. The roads look like an obstacle course of fallen branches. Our elevation is different than hackettstown but similar to Allamuchy and I am less then 30 miles away.


2.5 inches of snow in Hackettstown before a brief change to sleet then freezing rain around midnight. Rain all morning long. Liquid equivalent of entire storm was 1.50 inches.


Seems like a cut line was Route 80 and North of 80, the ice was problematic. A number of power outages, think the response was OK since the numbers were not catastrophic.

Dodged another bullet, grateful to the casters for this one. Was very ready, but that cold was crippling.

Hopefully next week's plunge will be shorter...….still early yet.

strangerdanger strangerdanger
1 day ago

Down near 78 we got a little over an inch of snow, and then it just rained, so it was a sloppy mess to get out of the driveway. Lost power three times between Sunday and yesterday, but thankfully the longest of those was two hours.

I liked it better when winter involved "snow".


Re: 2019 Snow Thread

Be aware of this possible icing situation for tomorrow morning.

Calico696 Calico696
1 day ago

Shoot........bet the schools run on a 90 min delay again........I guess better safe then sorry......thanks for that info Calico!

littlelu littlelu
1 day ago

littleu - The timing of the icing will be after the kids get to school. From the NWS:

Wednesday
A chance of freezing rain and sleet between 11am and 1pm, then rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 39. South wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Little or no sleet accumulation expected.

Calico696 Calico696
1 day ago

Hopefully just rain........and glad it will start after they get there lol

littlelu littlelu
12 hours ago

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