Hurricane Matthew
We are headed to the outerbanks on saturday and we are worried about Tropical storm Matthew heading towards the east coast next week and possibly becoming a hurricane. Need all weather expert opinions in where this storm might be heading.
Thank you.
KateAccording to the National Hurricane Center, this is forecast to turn into a hurricane, however it won't even be in Jamaica by Monday. If it does continue up the coast, I wouldn't worry about until the end of next week.
Here is the 5-day map:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents
Here are the computer models:
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/Tropical-Storm-Matthew?map=model
Rich It's not projected to hit nj area until the 5th therefore probably Wednesday/Thursday for outer banks. It has to get thru Haiti before any predictions for the east coast can be made more accurately. There is a chance it goes out to sea. The surf will most likely be rough either way.
Dima 
skippy Don't let it run your life or ruin your vacation. Just monitor it. Can't control it. And check your vacation insurance.
CraftBeerBob it is very unlikely this storm effects the east coast... we have a strong high pressure building in the middle of the country that should steer it out of the way...
LibertyThinker Hell, just bring a metal detector. Right after strong storms are the best time to hit the beach, and people continue to find really old gold coins washed up. :)
Josh 
The Rhyme Animal You guys are doing a nice job on here. I wouldn't disagree with anything that's been said. At this point just keep an eye on it because it definitely is a threat.
I would wait until it gets near Cuba on Monday before I started making any decisions. The GFS has it near OBX by Weds night. But this is just one model. A lot can and probably will still change.
Bryan_NC Thanks Bryan... Still way to far out.. and this huge high is building up... I say it has to take a very hard left turn very soon or it get push far enough away from Hackettstown that there should be no worry...
What a monster of a storm. Do you all remember Sandys projected path a week out? Or Irene? As much as I love storms, i d love to see this go out to sea.
maja2 Yes it was a great day here in SC. Even better because we had a few inches of much needed rain this week. Tonight will be our coolest night in months at 54.
As far as Matthew, the models have weakened the trough in the east that was supposed to mainly kick this thing OTS (out to sea). This leaves a bit of window for the storm to come farther west. That has been a significant trend in the models today. It's already a cat 4. I could see it being a cat 5 by morning or sometime tomorrow. Very concerning.
Officially a CAT 5 now. 160 mph sustained with 195 mph gusts in the 11pm advisory.
Pretty big deal as the last time we had a Cat 5 in the Atlantic was all the way back in 2007 if I'm not mistaken.
Vic Kate, the way the computer models are looking, it is possible it may hit Outer Banks, but not 'till Thursday night or Friday. We'll keep an eye on it, and if you are staying past Thursday, try to come up with a "Plan B" just in case you need to leave early.
I hope all my High School classmates and everyone else in Coastal NC will be OK. Everyone else too, of course, especially if for some reason it heads up this way again. Thoughts go out to them first, since they usually get smashed first!
Then there's also my family down there in SC. Bryan seems to have moved into my Sister's neighborhood too. Good luck to all. An invisible wall that would keep out Hurricanes without proper entry papers would be something great perhaps;-)
Phil D. Yes a wall, and it would be Beeuutiful too. And Mexico will pay for it, believe me.
boobalaa Correct Phil. Small world with your sister living right down the road from me lol.
I have not followed in close detail this weekend but I believe the storm has slowed down a by at least a day or two. Plus I noticed a decent shift east in the noon model run. Good sign.
As long as it's past Florida- where we're heading- and away from NJ by Friday morning. I've already been through a bad hurricane while on vacation in Mexico many years ago and don't want to go through that again.
Blackcat Yes it is moving around ( give or take ) 5 miles an hour. Two questions.
#1 The hurricane force wind is in a very tight circle in the center so that may help the islands. Most of the wind is tropical force. Still dangerous. So will the hurricane force winds stay compacted or expand.
#2 If the storm is moving so slowly that must mean the storm effects will hammer the islands for a much longer period of time. Will this fact raise the rain totals? I heard 45 inches which is well hard to imagine the damage that will occur.
just coach the storm is actually really hard to pin down. it's been stalled in the Caribbean for a while actually and it has gone slow. additional weather balloons are now being sent up from various east coast location to get better data.
The weather models have been going a little back and forth. some show out to sea, some show outerbanks getting hit. At this point it's not very clear. There are a lot of factors in play that will affect the final outcome.
If the storm remains strong like a category 3-4, then hurricane force winds would actually be wider, and the storm, as it phases or switches over into a hybrid system (if it does), the wind field can shift and change, including expanding.
We'll see what the new data does in terms of potential changes in the weather models. it's still a long way away from knowing what the storm will do, to be quite honest. If it does end up going west and impacting the eastern seaboard, then the later half of next wee will b e interesting, both for the carolina's and potentially us up here as well.
gzellf Not wasting time with details at this point but a fairly good shift to the west in the models today. Basically a hit from Myrtle Beach, SC to OBX then just off the coast.
ianimal 
Yankeefan Mark is well towards the Westerly side of SC, so I doubt if he'll have any issues, besides he knows to keep his powder dry;-)
It's all my old classmates and friends in Central Coastal NC that I'm really worried for - Jacksonville, Swansboro, New Bern, etc.
This is a serious storm for sure. Looks like NC is in trouble as of now. Bryan posted this graphic on his FB page. Hopefully he will come on and give us his latest thoughts.
Calico696 Upwards of 40 inches of rain in portions of Haiti. Also just a bit of history....the possibility of a Carolina's landfall would mean the first October hurricane there since Hazel in 1954. Pretty incredible.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hazel
Latest GFS model shows Matthew kissing florida, somewhere around St lucie...and then a hit on South Carolina in the Charleston area as strong as a category 4. This storm is something people anywhere from Miami to the outer banks should really start paying close attention to..... the remnants would then come on up here and drench us in rain, potentially 5-10 inches worth (great for our drought)
Spare a thought for the people of Haiti this morning. The last thing they needed was a Cat 4 storm ripping through their country. If anyone thinks they're having a bad day today, all we need to do is imagine their situation to remember how lucky we really are.
Rebecka So very true Rebecka. Those people have been through a lot over the last decade, not to mention how poor of a country it is to begin with. Very sad.
Any local North/South Carolina forecast Bryan? Was originally supposed to be headed to the Myrtle Beach area on Sunday. Heard they ordered evacuations there already. Wish this storm would track the hell on out to sea.
soff This may well be another Hurricane Hugo from 1989. I saw the effects firsthand in the Carolinas...
iJay 
https://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201614_model.gif
Lastest models, 8pm, have it hitting GA and SC and slowly going out to sea.
FYI It's not a Hugo. Totally different track. Matthew should mainly be an issue within an hour or two from the coast. Beyond that it's a rainstorm. But yeh there will probably be lots of damage along a very long stretch of the coast. North of OBX the trend is starting to go farther east now.
If it does make landfall in SC it will have Hugo like impact. Nobody knows the exact path it will take, no guarantee it will not make landfall...
this storm is being very stubborn not kicking out to sea... the next 2 days they should have a pretty good idea what it is going to do... if I was on the out banks I just keep an eye out and listen to the weather channels every few hours....
Yeh it could have a Hugo like impact but it would be along the coast not inland too much. Hugo was known for having massive impacts because it moved inland and stayed very strong. Anything can happen still with Matthew. But it is not a storm that will be moving west once its north of Florida.
BTW looking like less of a threat up there. Once it gets to OBX it goes more east than anything (as per the current models anyway).
I'm worried for the people of Haiti & Cuba. We were inland from Sandy, and that night was frightening enough. The days following were challenging.I can't imagine facing a storm this strong. I hope the universe pushes this storm east and out to sea before it gets near our coastline.
Thanks for the updates weather folks! Waiting for the euro model prediction!
Thank You LibertyThinker for that useful map. Looks like we are going to get a break and be able to be outside for a change this weekend!
After it hits FL/SE coast it looks like it may either stall or do a loop around as per today's models. I believe the Euro has had it lingering like this for quite a few runs now.
Supposed to fly to Miami Friday morning. Won't know if flight is cancelled until tomorrow morning but I would need to cancel my hotel for Friday today or lose my $.
We understood that traveling there this time of year was a crap shoot...
Dang....
holy gamoly: the ensemble model has it looping above FLA and cutting back across FLA to the Gulf...... Two shots of rain for FLA.
strangerdanger So looking at the map Hurricane Matthew is looping around, Nicole is also looping and there is wave #1 also in the vicinity. Is there any possibility the storms could merge ?
We are suppose to be moving to Stuart , Fla. in Martin County tomorrow ,now going to wait until the storm passes .
SM PREDATOR I'm going to Myrtle Beach in 4 weeks. Is this damned storm still going to be hanging around then?
We're heading to Miami Beach in the morning. No cancellation notification.
But...my mom is in Port St. Lucie
Yes, it loops around and heads to the gulf, gets tired of churning Deepwater Horizon oil from the sea floor so loops again crossing florida, stopping briefly for a Cuban sandwich before heading up the coast. At Myrtle Beach, it puts it's right side in, it puts its left side in, then it does the iman-pokey and it churns it all around :>)
Your fault, you shouldn't have called it "damned."
"gets tired of churning Deepwater Horizon oil..." LOL!
In all seriousness though... hoping the SE is battening down the hatches... and this monster of a storm does not claim any further victims. I would certainly not want to be in its path. I think if I lived in Fla I'd be on a plane to Idaho or Alaska. Has anyone here ever experienced a hurricane in person?
JWolfe75 Rebecka, I was a little kid at grandma's house in West Palm Beach during Andrew.
Blackcat, my parents have a vacation home in PSL. What are they saying about that area?
Tracy Gloria? Now I have the Patti Smith version in my mind.
And since the question of have you ever been in a hurricane was asked, now I'm hearing Bruce Springsteen's Sandy.
One of the things the TV warnings are all saying is not to put it into the same context of other hurricanes we've been through. There are yearly storms down in that area and they have a great fear this is being dismissed as just another one of those. Instead this is supposed to a storm not seen for about 40 years.
GC 
Dansker GC, good point. I have a friend in Jacksonville and she hasn't been overly concerned more than this just being a nuisance, but I think the reality is starting to hit her. She's 9 months pregnant with a toddler, so she will be staying at the hospital tomorrow night where her doctor husband is on call, just to be safe.
Predator - Martin County seems to be in Andrew's bull's eye! I hope all fairs well with your new place.
Just asking.....Watching the network news....every broadcast has a anchorman standing on a beach, getting pelted by wind blown rain...& pleading with people to evacuate......WT_ ....just askin.........by the way where are 200,000+ evacuees staying tonight.....just askin....
Dazed & confused This storm is going down in history as a monster... I am truly sorry my original forecast was incorrect never did I think it would get that close the Florida coast still hoping it does hit the tri state area after this crazy loop it is going to do... wish all those with family in friends in its path the best as I do also... please tell them to evacuate...
Liberty, no worries. I don't think anyone was
really betting the farm on your forecast. You and Lonnie are always right half of the time. And wrong the other half..
Spoke to my mom in PSL earlier. She's moved stuff away/in front of windows as needed. She says she is prepared. A neighbor asked if she had water and if they lose power he'll be outside grilling and to head over. She's not near the beach and is on the second floor. She had damage to her place from a hurricane years ago.
DH and I were in Mexico during a hurricane 20 something years ago. We were lucky to be on an upper floor of the hotel. The outside f the place was trashed.
And we're still heading to the airport early tomorrow to go to Miami.....hopefully. That area isn't getting hit like the rest....crossing our fingers..
We have family in Homestead/Miami and they said everything is in good shape -- hopefully airlines will not cancel on you Blackcat.
Bonv I was in Florida during the many hurricanes to come thru central Florida that NEVER happens.. 2004. it was quite an experience with that wind and the whistling noise then all was strangely quiet when the eye passed over us
Then back to wind, whistling. And rain.. lots of rain
Htown mama I lived in Florida, Korea, Japan, California, and NJ. I have been through hurricanes, typhoons, mudslide and high taxes. The last is the worst of all.
MK High taxes are the worst because they persist, don't go away. The aftermath of Andrew was not good due to the extended power outage, try living down there without AC in August/September. A lot of backup natural gas generators were installed afterwards...
Your personal tax problems are more horrible than someone's dead loved ones for you? Hundreds so far for this one storm. Not for most, I hope. Find another thread maybe?
Say a small prayer for South Carolinians. Looks like Matthew has his eye (literally) on them...
Is the storm still projected to loop around, Bryan? I was hearing that I think yesterday or the day before on the news, but am not hearing that mentioned now.
Yeah, I even feel bad joking with Iman on this one. While still hoping they will get less than the worse case, I think late last night when I saw most of the weathercasters moving a few miles back from the good video on the coast......you knew this one had potential.
Glad folks seemed to listen to the warnings.
And how do they save so much of their power?
We lived in Cape Coral, FL and were hit by four major Hurricanes, Charley, Ivan, Frances and Wilma. In fact, my son was born during Wilma. I was so fortunate to be in the hospital when that one hit.
Charley was the worst for us. We were living in a rental while waiting for our house to be built. Our whole back porch blew away and our air conditioning unit ended up across the street on our neighbor's lawn. We were out of electricity for about two weeks. It was so hot and humid and we were smoldering without AC (this from someone who loves the heat), we ended up sleeping on the concrete slab that was our porch. Not a great idea in Florida with the noseeums and the occasional gators walking around.
Even after all this storm turmoil that almost gave me a nervous breakdown, we are planning on going back after our son graduates high school. It's 8 years from now but our land is bought and waiting to be built on.
Jazzykatt Holy cow, Jazzy, you've been *through* it! Amazing you're going back - brave woman; I think I'd be looking for a place well inland if I ever saw my porch blow away lol.
Jazzy, are you going back to Cape Coral? My inlaws have a condo there now and my husband vacationed down there every winter as a kid. He still owns a piece of land down there that was given to him by his grandfather. All the grandchildren sold theirs except him. He got an offer once when we first started dating for 90k and turned it down. Now it's practically worthless.
Charleston area is bracing themselves to be hit hard. I lived outside Charleston in Dorchester County and they put in mandatory curfew starting at 6pm today and said if anyone breaks curfew they will be fined and possibly jail time. They aren't messing around now, that area was hit hard with the flooding last year. Some are still not fixed.
My sister is in Charleston county in John's Island, she left last night. Several of my co workers and owner of the agency live in Mount Pleasant and one in West Ashley. All picked up and left. For these people to leave, you know it could be bad.
Mommyof3 We will be going back to Cape Coral in about 8 years. It's a long time but gives us something to look forward to. We would go now if the schools weren't so bad. That is the one thing NJ has going for it. We lost a ton after everything crashed there. It's slowly starting to come back so we figured now was a good time to buy.
Part me thinks I am crazy going back after going through those storms but it's such a beautiful place and I love the pace of life.
Tracy
Tell your husband to hold onto it for a few more years. There are some big development plans going on and the values will slowly start to increase once the utility expansions are implemented.
It's basically like a tropical depression/noreaster here. Very rainy and very breezy. 2.5" as of early this morning. Of course I'm well inland. Hotels are pretty full around here from people evacuating.
Our 7:30am flight to Miami took off without a hitch:)
Sometimes you roll the dice....and sometimes you win☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️
And my mom in Port St Lucie was fine- no damage at all to her place and power was back fairly quickly:) good thing she is on the grid with the hospital
Jazzy..I heard that Cape Coral is the safest town in Florida. We looked at a condo, with a wide canal view. Absolutely gorgeous. This about 10 years ago. Asking price, 425k. Of course we couldn't afford it. To bad I forgot where it was, or I would check it out, again.
Anyway.... yeah, Cape Coral would be my choice, also. I want to move to Florida, so much. My hubby spent most of his life at the Jersey shore, so he is "desensitized", to it and thinks the mountains, here are much cooler looking than the ocean. I do think the views around here are beautiful, but I love the ocean way more. That's because I grew up around mountains. Hay... meet ya in Cape Coral, in eight years! LOL
sparksjbc1964 Although I haven't gone fishing there for years, just heard that Surfside Pier is gone again.
I was in Garden City a few weeks ago for vacation. Haven't heard any news on that pier yet (that's where we always go for all-night fishing). Hoping for the best, but those piers are only about a mile apart, so it may have gotten hit just as hard.
Mark Mc. Hey Sparks!
Your husband sounds like mine. He loves the mountains and his dream was a rustic log home in Vermont. I HATE winter and don't tolerate the cold well. He loves the ocean as well so I promised him he could take off skiing whenever he wanted. He is from Jersey as well and had a hard time adjusting to the slower Florida pace at first. I had to keep reminding him to get out of the rat race mode. Good luck getting down there. Hope to see you in 8 years.
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