Winter precipitation Feb 15-16
Looks like we'll get some sort of weather this day. I'm hearing snow and ice. Too early to tell yet, but we'll keep an eye on it.
btownguy Thanks btownguy...
Really to early to call but it is looking to start as snow change to freezing rain / sleet then to rain... we will need every weather expert to chime in on this one!!! This storms all depends how much cold air is in place...
LibertyThinker 
Sheesh!! look at those temps on the GFS model. Incredible that we could potentially be talking temps in the 50's for this event a couple days after this incredible bitterly cold upcoming weekend. Crazy
Vic 
Denise Thank goodness for the low natural gas costs since I will be blasting the heat this weekend to help avoid frozen pipes.
Bonv 
Calico696 Oh boy here we go ..... No snow and 2000 truckloads of salt to kill what ever is left in the local streams .....
truthREPORT FROM JC WEATHER NJ FLIZZARDS ??? Flizzards and accumulating snow showers are possible tomorrow with generally cold temperatures. Saturday and Sunday should feature pipe-breaking baby-making bitter cold so make any preparations for such now. Monday should return to just generally cold as we watch the storm approach from our SW. Tuesday is starting to look like a snow to ice to rain event. I’ll be tracking the low through this weekend as it will ultimately determine the duration/break down of snow vs ice vs rain. If the low is further west, then we’ll see more rain than anything. If the low’s track is right over New Jersey or along the coast then the icing potential as well as coastal flooding will be maximized. If out to sea then it could mean more snow to start than ice or rain. No matter what, I think we are all looking at a period of icing. Most of us should end in rain but by the time that happens, the wintry disruption will have already taken place. Have a great night and be safe! JC from weather NJ.
Comments
just coach I know I should have finished wrapping the pipes in the Fall - d'oh!
Hopefully we won't see many water main breaks like this:
http://citizensvoice.com/news/water-main-break-covers-scranton-neighborhood-in-thick-ice-1.2006273
Final call map from EPAWA. It could get slippery out there at times, so be careful.
Thanks Calico - looks like the warmer air wins out over night changing it to all rain... I am hoping the icing does not last long as we loss power in Liberty pretty easily... The Tuesday morning commute should fine other then some flooding...
joyful After the cold a little snow is nothing. Now the areas that will get significant icing later on this is another story to develop...
iJay 
CraftBeerBob The big news overnight will be the freezing rain and ice. We just changed over to sleet here in Oxford. Temps have actually dropped in this part of the State. Was 23 at 3:30 this afternoon, now down to 18.
The sleet/freezing rain line can be seen here (In yellow) racing north:
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0C-1-12
Roads were bad coming from Mattars to Hackettstown !! Take your time and be safe !!
Mariann 
Christine Finished shoveling the snow when it started sleeting - now the sidewalks are safe to skate on.
yeah no shoveling.... let the ice lay on top of the snow, a bit safer that way... hoping tomorrows rain + 50 degrees melts it with no need of shoveling....
JeffersonRepub The general plan for this storm is that the sleet will eventually give way to rain and eventual warming, but the timing for that is what will drive how things play out between now and the AM hours.
I'm with you JR. I debated but didn't want to deal with rain/ice soaked snow early in the morning.
There is a short range model forecasters use especially in this time frame while a storm is ongoing called the HRRR model (High Resolution Rapid Refresh). It updates hourly and paints an ugly icy mess for us NW NJ folks come the AM commute. Would you believe it's nearly 50 degrees in Atlantic City at this hour??? Crazy
If the current map is correct with Hackettstown at 27 degrees we have an interesting temperature gradient just within Warren County. Temps still in the mid to upper teens just to Hackettstown's west northwest:
the roads are much better then they were only an hour ago. the turning over to rain has begun!
brown bear2 The local weather scan is estimating temps to be 36 at midnight, and 44 by 6:00 AM.
The temp is rising now and is at 25. and moving upward. At 8:31 PM
Embryodad 
Nosila It's up to 21 up here on top of the Jonestown mountain in Oxford.
CBB - I didn't realize were were town mates. What area are you in? I know Vic is in the Pequest area of town.
Iris Yeah I'm off Pequest Road about a mile down the road from the Pequest Fish Hatchery. My elevation is approx 480 feet in this part of town. I know going up Mine Hill Road toward Washington Twp you really get up in elevation right at the Washington/Oxford border. I'm guessing that has to be the highest point in Oxford??
This area radiates like crazy on nights when radiational cooling conditions are prime. As long as there is no wind or cloud cover we do good. We rarely have to run the AC during the summer!
Check your elevation here:
http://veloroutes.org/elevation/
Vic - what a cool site!
although I'm not sure what we are to infer from our elevation lol.
NWS Mt Holly has just issued a Freezing Rain Advisory for Warren County until 2AM but they state they wouldn't be surprised should the freezing rain continue until 4 or 5AM:
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NJZ007&warncounty=NJC041&firewxzone=NJZ007&local_place1=2%20Miles%20NW%20Great%20Meadows%20NJ&product1=Freezing+Rain+Advisory&lat=40.8426&lon=-74.9419#.VsKSG_krKM8
Hope everyone is OK after this mess. Was out at 4 am when the temp went up suddenly causing the trees to rain at the higher levels but remain frozen near the ground. Literally one second it was silent, the next was like a pretty good rain storm except no rain. Ice was not falling off, it was dripping off and an incredible rate. There were puddles under the trees but the rest of the ground was frozen rock solid. And a convection breeze coming off the ice. Creepy. Reason I was up was the giant sheets coming off the house but today I can not tell where. No signs of it above or below. More creepy.
How did the no-shovel technique go? I puzzled over whether to plow early or wait. My little lawn tractor plow can get interesting after 8 inches or equal ice/wet weight so I plowed in a gap in the afternoon yesterday. Today I had a half inch of ice but 80% was pretty soft and moved so seemed to be better than pushing that plus 3 inches of snow. Plowed the 80% pretty fast and most of the 20% is melting quickly now.
JR et al: Was I right or did you not have any ice under the snow today? Always wonder whether I made the right call.
Hope everyone is digging out and no one suffers any property or personal damage.
strangerdanger So I went out last night, around 8pm, and cleared the whole driveway. This morning there was some ice so I salted it. Glad I did it last night instead of this morning.
SD, by the time I went out to check, My driveway had already melted, just a few slippery slush patches. My lawn and driveway were white last night when the dog went out before bed.
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