Snow 1/27/15
Calico696 
ianimal Well I have heard from several sites edge is based outta allamuchy he is saying 1-2 feet throughout widespread area and poss blizzard conditions as well as NEPA on their fb page..Jonathon Carr and edge are very spot on and Carr is calling for a Kaboom which means he is agreeing with edge. Anything can happen, I personally am hoping for a big storm and that these folks are correct :)
Firstworldproblems 
5catmom 
@#$%&!
From "The Edge Weather" : European Model Ensemble Mean!!!
It completely and utterly agrees with the main operational run of the model for Monday night and Tuesday. Expect blizzard or near-blizzard conditions with 1-2 foot snowfall amounts for our entire area on Monday night and Tuesday, including New York City.
Light snow is also likely the entire day on Monday, again on Thursday night and Friday, and then possibly another Nor'easter next Sunday and Monday." http://theedgeweather.blogspot.com/
Bonv Bryan HAS been saying that the next two weeks looked "interesting". Personally, I have a half dozen other adjectives I would use, none of which are suitable for a family forum, lol.
Euro is a monster. I will be back in NC but it is now showing an epic type storm. I don't like to hype you know that. This really needs to be watched.
Bryan_NC 
Rebecka 
just coach Speaking of the Euro model, in reading some of the local forecast discussions today I saw them mention that one run of the Euro was discounted by NOAA has having "convective feedback issues." It'll be interesting to see what the king of weather models has to say during it's next run in the next few hours at around 1AM!!
Vic Euro is locked in. Winter Storm Watches have been posted for our area from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. NOAA Mt Holly (For now) is going with a pretty big spread on accumulations of 6 to16 inches. An updated briefing package concerning this event will be out later this afternoon around 4:30PM.
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NJZ007&warncounty=NJC041&firewxzone=NJZ007&local_place1=2%20Miles%20NW%20Great%20Meadows%20NJ&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch&lat=40.8426&lon=-74.9419#.VMSta9J4q7o
Latest Snowfall Map:
http://www.weather.gov/images/phi/winter/StormTotalSnowRange.png
Widespread talk of an historic storm. Any snowfall prediction you see now is potentially very conservative. I'm off to NC - have fun!
Darrin Bryan, Can you make a comment on the impact the storm could have on Hackettstown? Looks like the higher snow amounts are east and north of here. Don't want to get all hyped up and then disappointed.
"Any snowfall prediction you see now is potentially very conservative."
In other words, prepare now!
Thanks Bryan! You're the best!
3wbdwnj 
Mom of 1&1 + 1000 to Darrin. I LOVE snow too! Leaving in a few minutes to go skiing at Blue Mt today. (and for the record, I'm 49 ..... 50 in a few months.) :-)
Rob Durana 
botheredbyuu2 
iJay well bby, we are currently 1 to 1 now when it comes to snow or no snow, hope u have your snow shovel READY!!!!!
The latest I saw is it is to start Monday around 2am and snow through tuesday 12-18 inches
We may need to start another thread as there is the potential for another weaker and fast moving clipper system for the northeast Thurs-evening into Friday.
Mom of 1 and 1 - this link is your best bet for timing
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=40.85398568900047&lon=-74.82905789299963&site=all&smap=1#.VMUNQ8J0zIU
BLDFrom the Hackettstown Police Facebook:
**Before the storm strikes, make sure your home, office and vehicles have the supplies you might need. Make sure farm animals and pets also have the essentials they will need.**
(1)At Home and Work:
Primary concerns are loss of heat, power and telephone service and a shortage of supplies if storm conditions continue for more than a day. Have available:
Flashlight and extra batteries
Battery-powered NOAA Weather Radio and portable radio to receive emergency information
Extra food and water such as dried fruit, nuts and granola bars, and other food requiring no cooking or refrigeration.
Extra prescription medicine
Baby items such as diapers and formula
First-aid supplies
Heating fuel: refuel before you are empty; fuel carriers may not reach you for days after a winter storm
Emergency heat source: fireplace, wood stove, space heater, properly ventilated to prevent a fire
Fire extinguisher, smoke alarm; test smoke alarms once a month to ensure they work properly
Extra pet food and warm shelter for pets
(2)In Vehicles:
Plan your travel and check the latest weather reports to avoid the storm! Fully check and winterize your vehicle before the winter season begins.Carry a Winter Storm Survival Kit:
Mobile phone, charger, batteries
Blankets/sleeping bags
Flashlight with extra batteries
Firstaid kit
Knife
High-calorie, non-perishable food
Extra clothing to keep dry
Large empty can to use as emergency toilet. Tissues and paper towels for sanitary purposes
Small can and waterproof matches to melt snow for drinking water
Sack of sand or cat litter for traction
Shovel
Windshield scraper and brush
Tool kit
Tow rope
Battery booster cables
Water container
Candle and matches. Not only will the candle provide light if your flashlight dies, it can provide lifesaving heat.
Compass and road maps (don't depend on moble devices)
Keep your gas tank near full to avoid ice in the tank and fuel lines. Avoid traveling alone. Let someone know your timetable and primary and alternate routes.
(3)On the Farm, Pet Owners:
Move animals to sheltered areas or bring pets inside. Shelter belts, properly laid out and oriented, are better protection for cattle than confining shelters, such as sheds.
Haul extra feed to nearby feeding areas.
Have water available. Most animals die from dehydration in winter storms.
Make sure pets have plenty of food, water and shelter.
Well, we all know it's coming, at this point I'm not interested in how much (because it'll be TOO MUCH, regardless, just the timing.... so I know if my wife and I will be going to work on monday... obviously tuesday will be out.
JeffersonRepub "...at this point I'm not interested in how much (because it'll be TOO MUCH, regardless..." - exactly my feelings, JR. It's just a matter of preparing for a big one. Doing shopping, giving the generator a test run, canceling DH's patients for Tuesday, and even bringing some wood in now to sit by the fireplace together that day... just plan for a snow day and all will be well!
Singlemaleinnj Here's some more helpful information -
http://www.nj.com/weather-guy/index.ssf/2015/01/the_essential_guide_to_nj_blizzard_terminology.html
Now that it's getting closer we really needs Bryan's help. Give us the real low down. ;-)
GC I just listened to WRNJ and they said light snow for Monday and sunshine for Tuesday! What is going on??
Tinko 
Nosila To all of you cheering for huge snowfalls, you people realize that this is the stuff that kills, right? From people getting stuck and freezing to death all the way to houses collapsing under the weight?
The Bishop My original thoughts are still the same @#$%&! .... but I'll take my rant to other threads.
I sit on work's Business Continuity Committee and the latest from NYC OEM reinforces the worst case scenario: 20-30 inches of snow with locally higher amounts possible; snowfall rates of up to 2-4 inches per hour late Monday night into Tuesday morning; snow continuing until Wednesday morning (36-hour event); drifts of up to 3 feet and has the capability of being a top 10 worst storm for the area.
Some people can interpret the reports, some can't. Some people just cut & paste, others create their own reports. Some people are really nice people in person, others not so much.
oh jeez bishop..........as for deaths, if it is a state of emergency, like it probably will be if we get this much, people should not be out and about anyways. if people were proactive, cleared their roofs and such collapses would not happen, so for you to try to be a debby downer is just silly, let the few that enjoy it actually enjoy it, and for once try to look at the bright side of things, unless you actually believe that us cheering will bring more snow
Snow is the way of the world in this area, nothing you can do about it, but to sit there and be miserable is just plain silly, enjoy it and maybe you will enjoy life more
On a fun snow note. Brendan was busy in yesterday's snow with his latest snow sculpture.
Nice ride down to NC today. Back in my hotel. Not much new to report. Honestly i'm more a fan of the smaller storms than the big ones myself. I would rather be up there helping dig out though because i'm sure the help will be needed. Bottom line is just be prepared. This is a blockbuster forming and best guesses right now are in the 1 to 2 foot range.
Iris The NWS is saying 14 o 24.
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NJZ007&warncounty=NJC041&firewxzone=NJZ007&local_place1=Hackettstown%20NJ&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning&lat=40.8548&lon=-74.83#.VMVloszIzKc
Greg Yes, Brendan is great. Unfortunately, he's not living with his parents in Oxford these days so I can't just ride down the road and see his stuff in person.
Here's his Facebook page for anyone who is interested.
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Schaffer-Art-Studios/431012103618198
Some more forecast information -
http://models.weatherbell.com/ndfd/ndfd_precip.php
So far no one lowering their snow accumulations. They are only increasing them.
Andy Loigu Hubby took the kids to see if Brendan made anything yesterday. Kids were disappointed to see the yard was
Empty. They would have gotten a kick out of his latest creation! He's awesome!!
Boo boo I know, Andy...just was listening and, according to them..just some light snow overnight and into tomorrow..Nice day on Tuesday..What????
joyful 
The heavy snow is not supposed to start until Monday evening..that's why parentintown
villani I see on news 12 closing section the schools are starting to roll out with early dismissals for tomorrow
I believe most of WRNJ's forecasts are pre-recorded for the weekend on Friday , this storm became a real issue throughout the weekend. I am sure they will be up to spead come 6:00 AM tomorrow morning.
kurt Both channel 2 and channel 4 weather reports are calling for 10-18 for our area. Nothing to sneeze at but the larger amounts are supposed to be towards the east !
Mariann Does anyone know what time its supposed to start in the Denville area? I commute south to Bridgewater and I am trying to figure out if I should just wfh tomorrow or try and go in...
according to the hourly predictions on weather underground- flurries starting late tonight - thru tomorrow morning and then snow...........
@ltl - based on the reports I've read it sounds like it will begin snowing around 5:00 am but not be too bad until the afternoon. Unfortunately, not too many details around what time in the afternoon. I plan on leaving work around 1:00 pm just to be safe.
LTL,
I'd go to work on Monday. Don't stay until 8pm. But if you get out at 3 or 4 pm you will be ok.
Thanks, my boss already knows I'm planning to wfh Tuesday if the weather reports are accurate, I'll probably go in in the morning and possibly wfh in the afternoon if it starts looking bad
Much appreciated!!
Blackcat Monday's snow is from a clipper. It will probably be spotty, on and off. It picks up in the evening but gets heavy later on at night.
I like referring back to this website ( http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/) of the past snowfalls. This one looks a little like the blizzard of 1/7-1/8 1996 : http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/07-Jan-96.html
Latest NOAA briefing -
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf
I remember that one. It was huge. Then in September I was in North Carolina and had Hurricane Fran. I told the people who owned the place I was at about the huge snow in NJ. Then Fran hit. 1996 was a year fro storms.
This looks just like the Blizzard of 96. One exception though was that started in the south. Many places in the southeast and mid-atlantic also had crippling snow amounts.
I remember Fran too. I experienced that also in NC.
One of the short term models shows a sharper cutoff west of NYC now. We'll have to see if the GFS and Euro follow suit later tonight. Not sure if i'll be awake for those.
Darrin, do you get paid if you can't or don't go to work?
Some of us lose income if we can't get to work or if work closes because of snow....so it's not all about being a Debbie Downer, but being annoyed at not getting a full paycheck.
Hope you enjoy playing in the snow.
Tracy 
MeisterNJ So, Tracy, by proxy just think about all the snowplow drivers who get to go to work for the next two days. ;).
Update - the majority of model guidance still shows 1 to 2 feet for our general area. 2 to 3 feet for areas right near the coast. Sharp cutoff to west. We won't know exactly where until the banding starts. A difference of 20 miles could be a foot less of snow. That why i have such a large range for now.
Thanks for your update Bryan!
Now to wait on the schools to make up their minds about today, we only have an inch of snow right now but I see other districts have already planned early dismissals for today.
Snow 
Christine I live in Mansfield, right at the town line with Hackettstown and it has been snowing here since 3:00am. I see some closings already in Warren County but no word yet from our district.
A separate thread was started yesterday for today's school closings and early dismissals:
http://www.hackettstownlife.com/forum/662922
Bryan, thanks for the update. I was watching one station where the weather person did also say that a shift could bring less snow. Hoping! My daughter texted me her NC weather forecast. Brat :)
maja Is there a good chance of major power outages with this storm? Like needing a generator type?
H-town Mama I'm worried about the winds. 50 mph wind gusts are sure to take down the power lines.
Derek From what I've heard, it's supposed to be a dry, powdery snow so there shouldn't be much danger of widespread outages due to trees falling on power lines... but with JCP&L's track record, you certainly can't discount the possibility of it either, unfortunately.
H-town Mama - Yes, it's quite possible to lose power in the type of storm due to winds. It's always best to be prepared.
Slight shift east on last nights models. This could save us from the extreme amounts. Things can still wobble this afternoon though.
The winds can still cause power outtages. But yeh the snow will be dry.
I have all the cars full, 20 gallons of gas, a 3500 watt generator, a 2000 watt power inverter, 3 full propane tanks, a full tank of oil, a backup electric heater, and a backup propane heater, I am ready for anything
Oh yeah, and I have a full gallon of milk and 3 loafs of bread ;-)
Mark Mc. What did one dead snowman during a blizzard say to the other dead snowman???
"Yeah, but it's a dry snow..."
http://instantrimshot.com/index.php?sound=rimshot&play=true
Mark, if I had to list all the beer and liquor I have you guys would start calling me MG due to the lengths of my posts!!!!
Penningslandscaping Snowing pretty steady and a LOT in Kinnelon at work....my commute home should be fun
LaLaSnow i'm immediately regretting coming to work. Made it here fine, roads were empty and cleared.... now i just have to figure out how/when to get home.
darwin The new NAM (short term) just ran and it is mind boggling. No real change for us (still 1 to 2 feet) but NYC out to LI is downright scary. Taken verbatim it's 3 to 4 feet.
A nice dry powdery snow so far with temps in the mid to upper teens this morning in Warren and Sussex counties. Even single digits once you get up to the High Point area of Sussex.
Just saw the NAM model has moved the storm west! The gradients are insane. It has a 20" snow gradient between Salem County and Southern Ocean County in NJ.
JrzyGirl88 I feel sorry for all you who commuted to work today. Please be safe getting home - might not be a bad idea to leave now.
Latest briefing package from NOAA (8AM this morning):
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf
Our students are getting out at 1pm so after all buses leave we can clean our cars off and venture home I am a little nervous lol. I will prob not leave the parking lot until 1:30-2 it looks bad now here in Kinnelon.
Sorry, GC..."Rose" does not get your joke!
Also, I have a feeling that we are going to get "clobbered" with bad weather conditions and snow later today and into tomorrow. My advice would be if you don't have to go out..don't! Personally, I have already cancelled and rescheduled my appointments and hubbys for today and also tomorrow..
i'm at work too - side roads are bad but main roads like route 57 seemed perfectly fine
Rose Nylund -
What did one dead skeleton in the desert say to the other dead skeleton??
"But it's a dry heat".
H'town police issued a snow emergency starting at 1pm today. No parking on ANY town streets after 1pm.... tickets and towing will start at 1pm. Only allowed to park in Municipal parking lots.
Gee Tracy,
I answered your question about who gets paid in a storm, but perhaps because it attracted a troll, that I responded to in a later posting it was removed. My post WAS thread related and I'd appreciate the moderator that felt they needed to remove my post PM me with the reason why.
Everyone be safe out there and if you use candles, (as an earlier post on preparedness mentions). be extremely careful on where they're located, etc. It could be the difference between life and death!
Phil D. NOAA Mt Holly will be tweaking this snow map at 4PM:
http://www.weather.gov/images/phi/winter/StormTotalSnowRange.png
Can that change Bryan? Less snow for us? My family is in Hudson County and I don't think they will be as lucky. Thanks for still hanging around HL
Bessie The latest recap from Radio/TV Weather Met Craig Allen after digesting the latest model guidance:
"All 12z runs in.
>NAM- Big hit, especially L.I. & CT
>GFS, RGEM & GGEM- Still east of rest of guidance. Highest amts
over eastern Suffolk. Only moderate snowstorm City on west. Most are discarding GFS and WPC basically has thrown out its solution for not catching negative tilt developing in jet. I think its because it doesn't know where all those lows will consolidate into one and placing too much emphasis on the precip bullseye offshore.
>Euro- ever so slightly east; basically unwavering.
>HRRR & RAP- All initializing with several lows that will consolidate. Both models show n/nw track closing in on MTP and slowing down.
>Lightning strikes continue about 150 miles off Delmarva.
Sticking with average 18-24". There will definite be heavier rates of 3-4" per hour in thunderstorms or banding at times which will lead to 30"+ in spots. No way of knowing where convection or banding will actually set up except to watch radar.
Somewhat lower amounts westward into western NJ but still a very significant snowfall.
A 25 mile wide bands of heavier snow already set up the length of L.I. into NJ between 78 and 80. Conditions will continue to deteriorate and all supplies and preparations should be moved to completion. If at work...LEAVE NOW or you'll end up with one of those horror stories of the nightmare commute from hell.
LIRR and MNRR will stop running by 11pm. NYC schools are closed tomorrow.
back on at 4pm on CBS New York on 880"
If we're only going to wind up with 4 or 6 inches, I need to know before I start drinking, lol... let's firm up those predictions, stat!
Agreed Vic, if people are still at work they need to leave. Your company really does not care. Be safe everyone!
What's up with the new generic gravatars? I'm having a flashback to the Atari 2600, lol...
I'm sure this storm will throw up surprises in both directions. My take as of now is 12-18 NW NJ, 18-24 NYC and higher amounts in spots especially over LI. Fill in the blanks from there. I would expect some fine tuning from there.
Draught House is offering 15% Take-Out for anyone that calls in from now till 5pm. 908-223-1226. You just have to say the word BLIZZARD.
RichG OOOOHHHHH I like mine! But now I have to look at peoples names, I realized very quick that I have learned who is who simply by their pictures next to their names
I agree with Ian, if its gonna be bad and I have to clean my driveway mid-night I need to stay sober
Customize your gravatar and yours won't change. I like the new ones. They remind me of an 80s Atari game I played. Can't think of which one.
The Atari game is "Space Invaders". ;-)
The name of these type of gravatars is "retro"...
I want a Space Invaders one...( I edited to see which one I have- very cool!) one of my favorite games;)
Be safe out there everyone!
Challah I'm reading through the weather channel that we're looking at 1-3" tonight and less than 1" tomorrow morning for our area. That's quite a change..
Joe M Blocks I noticed that too and asked around to several wheather sources I use also have seen multiple posts like that... Apparently the weather channel is all over the place and keeps changing amounts and is currently under tech support idk everyother source says a lot more lol we shall see
Blocks - Don't ever listen to The Weather Channel. They are the absolute worst. Besides Bryan, this is your best bet www.noaa.gov .
I agree Calico, they are saying 1-3 inches tonight and less than an inch tom. morning..
After all this hype - serious hype -Is this blizzard thing going to be a major waste of time ? We just end up with 6-8 inches- that is not a big deal at all. At this point I am ready and want the big one to hit!
My problem is if you go to the the NWS site it says 14 - 18 inches. The Weather Channel says a lot lower. I thought The Weather Channel followed the NWS? How could NOAA be so high for Warren County down to Somerset County and The Weather Channel be so low for the same area? Should I assume from Bridgewater to Hackettstown we will get at least 14 inches of snow? Maybe Bryan can help. If so, I truly thank you.
Singlemaleinnj - The Weather Channel follows any one of 20 different sites, bloggers, and prediction models. It's then up to a particular weatherperson to figure out where the real situation lies. That's why you need a guy like Bryan. He's the real deal with the knowledge to interpret instead of just quote what someone else says. ;-)
8-9" is at this point just disappointing - I am prepared for the big one, everything will be shut down tomorrow and I have all I really need - I am hoping for more than less At this point - I say bring it!!!
News 12 keeps flip flopping too there usually pretty conservative with their amounts predicted I trust Bryan and two others I rely on and all Three have been saying around 12-18 range collectively I'll be happy with 1 foot :)
Anyone just hear two big boom sounds? Myself and neighbor just heard it and we are in kenwood village
Rich Heard the 2 booms in the center of Hackettstown. Sounded like someone was celebrating the 4th of July in a Blizzard.
eje36 
kb2755 
Jrn You guys are watching the weather channel too much. They are so incompetent i'm starting to think they should be shut down. Everything is still on track 12-18 for NW NJ and more to the east.
Bryan - I can't agree more about The Weather Channel. They can't even seem to get the current temperature right, forget about predictions. I haven't paid them any mind in years.
Consigliere - yes - the news is sensationalizing this storm! the money that has been spent today! over board is my opinion! we shall see! i understand some areas are prime real estate to this storm - but the money spent all day today clearing what? 3 inches of snow? I have never seen the roads so well taken care of! $$$$$$$$ for 3 inches!!!
hope i don't pay for this comment tomorrow!
Was Sandy overhyped too? I say it wasn't hyped enough and i said that days before.
boobalaa Walking 2 miles to Quick Check. Roads clear black top on rt 46. Flurries. Is the storm coming or not?
Using The Weather Channel as a source of weather info is like calling Lean Cuisine fine dining.
btownguy Friend just bought a place in the North Fork of Long Island, they will be getting 2-3 feet out there...
.25 inches of rain could equal < 2 inches of snow or 5 inches of snow. Make that 2 inches of rain. <20 inches of snow (heavy, wet snow, warm temps) to 40 inches of snow (very cold air, super fine snow). Add to that variable a tight system and move the track 20 miles, you could have next to nothing or a complete dumping when it's very cold.
Rain is easy. No one screams if they get 3/4 of an inch of rain in Bergen County versus a 1/4 inch in Warren.
But if it's snow, people go nuts. That 1/2 inch of liquid difference could equate to a 10" difference in snowfall in just a few miles.
You might not like what we got, but it's still impressive forecasting by most.
Snow is hard to pinpoint. The forecasters got this... it's just a bit east of here. Still, impressive forecasting by most (not weather.com ... they just stink, LOL).
The guy on weather channel just said euro model says 12 to 18 other model says a few inches and he said basically he has no clue what it's Gona do but he will be watching it lol
Be patient. When it's snowing at 2" an hour it will easily make up for it. Again this is likely a 12-18 for you guys. Farther east is where it has the chance to be historical.
Great post snowster. Could not have said it any better.
I'm in NYC for the week for work and the city pretty much shut down at 7pm. Everyone is anxiously awaiting the storm (including myself). A contractor I'm working with keeps looking at his weather channel app which says only 5-8'', meanwhile everything else is saying 1-2ft.
Smilingbecs I'm sure the people on Long Island and in New England will be happy to find out that this storm was a hoax whose purpose was fearmongering to sell road salt in New Jersey, lol. They'll probably elect "Consigliere" king of the entire region...
MikeL 
Philliesman What did the media do? I'm so confused?
Isn't the storm supposed to just start picking up now through mid morning hours?
Are people thinking this storm is done?
The whole time I have been watching I have heard them say NYC is going to get hammered. It was never stated that NW Jersey was going to break records.
My impression as well Nosila. We'll see tomorrow how accurate the forecasts were.
justintime Ppl also complained on HL after Sandy saying it was over hyped because it didn't effect them personally. This storm is going to be big just maybe not as bad for us. But 12" is still a big deal.
The recent update on the Edge weather is pretty promising (at least for those that like less snow) Granted he and others said they need to see the latest Euro model but for now the storm seems to have shifted East :-)
If I want to drive to Weis for some ice cream and I have a vehicle that will do it, I'm driving to effing Weis for some ice cream!! SUCK IT, Christie!! lol
18" of snow, big brother travel ban??? Bite me.
Its a dud for Warren county. 18-24" forecasted, looks like we'll get 3-6. Talk about crying wolf!
Dud I'd caution on telling Christie to suck it. I'd be willing to bet that there are very few things on gods green earth that have made their way into his mouth that didn't wind up in his belly, lol.
Well then, I'd have to find someplace else that was open to purchase your missing HUMOR.....
Looks like we missed the snow. 1 inch tonight, and 1 inch of showers tomorrow!
At least one good came out of it. We were prepared.
Embryodad 
Reggie Voter 
Yeah... there is no more snow coming...
Excuse me while I roll my eyes at all of you.
The map shows now more snow? I'm so confused, they already cancelled school for tomorrow. Is this map correct?
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/stormtotal.php
Based on the diminishing amount of beer in my house, I am predicting 14 inches by 6pm Tuesday.
PWMS Think that NOAA map is just a glitch brown bear. No other weather outlets are saying that.
Forecast accuracy of the major websites for Hackettstown (well Andover).
http://www.forecastadvisor.com/NewJersey/Hackettstown/07840/
Neat.
http://youtu.be/i6zaVYWLTkU
About sums it up. And people were bashing the Weather Channel? Looks like they ended up getting this one right.
Eperot This is a good read about the fail blizzard https://www.facebook.com/easternpaweatherauthority/posts/603003806467230:0
As soon as they lift this travel ban on the 2 inches of snow we received, I am heading to Shop Rite to return my bread and eggs.
M & K 
mansfield mama Nosila... What the media did was get everyone frenzied again, including the govt. prematurely declaring states of emergency, travel bans, school closures, etc. I mean even if we did get a foot of snow, is it the end of the world???
Eperot, I find the Weather Channel "Local on the 8s" usually does get it right. (Not necessarily the meteorologists, who tend to sensationalize; I don't even watch them). Rico's link above validates my impression.
Aquarius Travel ban officially lifted.
We dodged the bullet ... let those Patriots fans deal with the blizzard.
Major bust. Too much reliance on the Euro. I'll reiterate, this was never supposed to be historic for H-town. Most i saw predicted was 12-18. Either way it is what it is, a major bust. And with a moving truck and closing this week, i couldn't be happier about it.
As usual, our local WeatherWorks did a pretty good job forecasting this locally.
The local experts WeatherWorks map posted at 3pm Monday showed 6-12 in this area which was the most accurate at the time. NOAA/NWS kept the 10-18", News 12 were lowering the numbers listed and verbally mentioned that they would drop them further.
One thing for sure as we have to increase funding to NOAA/NWS so we don't have to use the Euro model other than for a sanity check. A lot of money was wasted by shutting down metro NYC...
Thanks Bryan for admitting its a total bust. Lol. Still need you though. ; )
PM maybe we got 4"
Lvmom tink - that's for posting that, what an amazing read. so refreshing in this age of 'cover your ass' to see that people are still brutally honest. this seems to be a hallmark of the weather game, this type of honesty, and I really like it - except for the sensationalist TV types - but they are the minority.
Funny thing is the GFS nailed this storm (it was recently upgraded). However sometimes you can get something right for the wrong reasons and that's not helpful in the long run. Whether or not this was the case i don't know right now. It has to be a learning experience and yes more funding is needed for these models.
btw I think that facebook page should hire the HLife moderators for real. the comments people post are cringe worthy bad. I felt good about humanity after reading the honest post, then returned to hating everyone after reading the comments!!
Much wasting of public funds at the federal and state level, but funding for NOAA/NWS needs to be increased.
Closing --- I hate those guys. No matter how I prepare they always seem to come up with a novel snafu. Have to always remember to stay calm and not scream at the top of my lungs: WTF!!!!! Lawyers.
Yeah, storm was never a record breaker for us, but with the combined potential of snow, wind, and cold ---- still worthy of preparation. A slight movement to the West and it would have been a different story.
I take full credit having been probably the best prepared I have ever been, it's my fault :>)
mistergoogle The storm moved out further east to the ocean, but Connecticut is still digging out. Maybe some agencies overreacted,but what if it were the opposite?
I'd rather see most people were home,well stocked with food (and drink!) than to hear of hundreds stranded on highways, or the airport, or a commuter train in the middle of no where.
MAN This storm was a 2. That is, I had to brush my car off twice.
For this, I missed the first ten minutes of Jeopardy! to listen to that whack job deBlabio
Head of Noaa mt holly was on twitter apologizing early this morning for one of the greatest weather forecast fails in recent memory
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102371281
Another glowing example of how media is HISTORICALLY failing this country and catering to the modern day idiot. I'm sure Home Depot and shoprite appreciate all the hype though.
NoHopeForHumanity thanks Vic, funny how the article mentions that people were STUNNED that an apology was made, lol. what has become of us?
I for one am so grateful for the honesty, after a lifetime of seeing people in the media not accept responsibility for themselves I cannot say how cool I think these statements are, like I just entered into some groovy alternate reality :).
Now off to shop-rite to return my bread and milk ROFL.
A twit for an apology --- priceless.
Having grown up in snow country, the politicians did the right thing, a slight shift could have meant a pretty bad affair. Like I said, it ain't the snow, it's the wind and the cold that makes a snowfall a blizzard and blizzard's are not nice things.
Nice to hear they upgraded the GFS model; does that mean they are getting funding again? For years it has been defunded I think. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/29/noaa-climate-research_n_3353351.html
But given the past performance, I can understand the greater reliance on the Euro model ----- until now that is.
"I'd rather see most people were home,well stocked with food (and drink!) than to hear of hundreds stranded on highways, or the airport, or a commuter train in the middle of no where."
Why does it have to be one extreme or the other? False dilemma...
How about this... you live in NJ. It snows. Sometimes the roads suck. Be prepared to leave early based on what you actually see happening. Get your snow blower fueled up. Have some snow plows and salt ready, and maybe other drivers on standby. Advise *local* travel advisories, not statewide travel bans for 1/2" of snow.
Especially *knowing* that the models were shifting and not definite.
Crazy, right?
I'll never understand why people get so upset with meteorologists. They do a pretty remarkable job, considering they're predicting the future! Everyone understands that an investment advisor can't predict the exact performance of a stock and a sports writer can't predict the score of the big game. Why do people think that meteorologists should be infallible?
Gadfly It's one of the few jobs where you can be consistently wrong and keep working. No metrics, no batting average. Can you imagine baseball like that?
They are paid to give us the best pedictions of the most likely future weather based on current conditions and past occurrences, not to predict the future with infallibility.
They predicted the storm just fine, it was the track that was off by 50-60 miles. It just turns out that means a huge difference in snowfall for us.
Meteorologists get paid to predict the future based on the past, they do a pretty decent job most of the time.
Brendan Baseball players are paid millions of dollars to get base hits. The great ones fail 70% of the time...
My sister on LI said she has 2ft so far and still heavy. At least she still has power:)
It all leads up to.... "You're Damned if you DO!", or "You're Damned if you Don't!"
"Baseball players are paid millions of dollars to get base hits. The great ones fail 70% of the time..."
That is one of the most ridiculous and repeated analogies of all time.
.300 hitters don't "fail" to hit the ball 70% of the time; and they are so much better than .200 hitters. There are other statistics that describe this, but usually just watching them will show that. The poor hitters don't make contact nearly as much, and hit the ball more weakly most of the time. Don't forget that there are 7 really talented players behind the pitcher trying their best to get the batter out. Also, some of the time, they don't get the batter out, they get a runner out and it counts against the batter's average.
WEATHER FORECASTERS FACE JAIL FOR GETTING IT WRONG
http://www.shortlist.com/home/weather-forecasters-face-jail-for-getting-it-wrong
Sounds like what Gadfly wants
They predicted this storm correctly. Just not the path. But just because we didn't get that much snow you can't say they overhyped this storm.
28.5" in Orient in far Eastern LI. My friend is there shoveling snow, large amounts were real just shifted East 100 miles...
In the not so distant future, they will be closing schools when there's a chance of tstorms. You watch.
They actually get it right about 90% of the time. It's just times like these that you notice. It's an inexact science. People need to get that into their heads. It's much more complicated than people realize.
Snow lovers may hate me, but I'm THRILLED with the way this storm turned out. I'd much rather an error like this, then in the other direction.
Thanks Brian for still posting and keeping us updated..........I was so sad when you made your farewell post. Your still the guy I turn to for forecasts. :)
littlelu "Baseball players are paid millions of dollars to get base hits. The great ones fail 70% of the time..."
"That is one of the most ridiculous and repeated analogies of all time."
Are you saying that they aren't TRYING to get a base hit (which is much different than just *hitting the ball*) every time they are at the plate? If you try to do something and don't succeed, is that not the definition of failure? I fail to see the ridiculousness.
No one is saying getting base hits is easy; quite the contrary. The fact that the very best hitters in the world only succeed 30% of the time is a testament to just how difficult it is.
Mother Nature is going to do what Mother Nature is going to do. No amount of predicting is going to be 100% correct. I am glad precautions were put in place because it could have turned out differently. You can't please everyone, some will always complain. I am totally thrilled with the outcome. Only thing better, for me, would be 80 degrees and sunny.
justwondering I am thankful that so few people experienced breaking down on our NJ highways and roads, and if reported accurately, there were no deaths due to road conditions.
Snow crews were probably able to do a more thorough job in way less time, saving money for many towns and cities!
Add on to the list: everyone had adequate time to get to stores for essentials, rearrange schedules, and enjoy some unexpected family time; weather related professions learned some valuable lessons as was indicated well on EPWA and some other sites.
The main group of people who were more than inconvenienced, were those who could not get to their jobs. But even there, perhaps with some creative thinking, a way can be worked out to keep those jobs open without travel, either from home or in-house accomodations or changes in routine.
I feel very blessed to have dodged the bullet this time and hope we all learned a little bit more about those uncertainties in life which are completely out of our hands...
Spring Fever In my eyes we are better safe than sorry. What happens if they downplayed this and people weren't prepared? Was it a little too hyped up? Yes. They did, however, predict it correctly, just not for our area because the storm had shifted (I think it was 60-90 miles east). For the snow lovers, you still got your snow (with some more coming down as I look out the window). For the people who strongly dislike snow (such as my 8 month pregnant self with a 100lb. puppy who needs walking and who is obsessed with snow..grrrr) , it is enough to be a slight irritation, but overall the roads seem pretty well plowed/salted (Thanks DPW!!!), and enough for you to go about your day if you really need to.
I like to joke that I should have become a meteorologist so that I can get paid to always be wrong, but in truth what their job entails isn't as easy of a job as we think. Plus, they deal with the backlash of getting it wrong and face the wrath of the very vocal people of the northeast.
sunshinenj Gadfly, got me there, you did say you liked the job they were doing, I got caught up laughing at the article I posted and forgot who I posted it for.
It ended up hitting about 90 miles to the east. The storm is exactly as predicted - snow totals, amounts, timing. Just to the east. This is not a "miss", "bust", "under performer" by any means.
To hold meteorologists and forecasts to laser-like precision is a reflection of the lack of knowledge (or worse) of the accuser.
Don't misinterpret what I am saying. I am not calling "off with their heads" for a mistake. If that was the case, all baseball hitters would be fired. And I thought the forecast and the response to this storm was just fine ---- would love it to be better, but all things considered they met my metrics.
Of course they are predicting the future. As a business person so did I. If I came close or their were unanticipated circumstances not able to be forecasted and outside my control, I usually did not get fired. But if I blew the P&L because I inaccurately forecast the future beyond reasonable metrics, it would be time to hit the street.
I am saying that, like baseball, business or most things in life, wouldn't it be nice if a reasonable set of metrics were established to be able to tell the pro's from the schmoe's. I would think the really great forecasters would relish the accolades and extra money they could command.
PS: Bryan, even though you really blew it, your job at HL life is very, very, very, very safe :>)
the media over-hypes 1 snow flake.. so this was ridiculous. maybe in the future the state and the schools should think about closing on the morning of... not a day or two ahead just because of the what the forecast says since they are frequently inaccurate
Pop, dammed if you do damned if you don't......read above or other posts, people complaining why schiools hadent called ahead to cancel knowing storm was on its way, and now that there was no snow apparently people are complaining that schools shouldent of canceled early, it's one or the other
This is the funniest video I have seen yet on the hysteria people go through when snow is predicted! Go on youtube and put in : vic dibitetto bread and milk! FUNNY !!
oceanmmi Poppy you might want to turn on the news and not just look out your window. This storm dumped a lot of snow in the area East of us. And I'm glad school was cancelled. At 7am-8am the local roads were not cleared. It would have been a pain to get the kids to school this morning. Maybe because the schools were already closed they took their time to clear the roads but I just got back from sledding at the HS and they were still clearing the parking lot.
The weather that we got appears to have been forecasted quite nicely by yesterday at 1:30PM:
"Snow storm won't be so bad for Warren and Hunterdon, WeatherWorks say"
http://www.nj.com/warrenreporter/index.ssf/2015/01/snow_storm_wont_be_so_bad_for.html
Total BUST snowster. Amounts were wrong. Monmouth and Ocean counties didn't get 24-30" like predicted. They got 8" We got 4" here, not a foot like they predicted. What are you talking about?
The news said they missed the center by 50 miles. I would say that was pretty good when dealing with something uncontrollable by man, YET !!!
Old Gent bbyju, a total bust would be no snow at all....they predicted 6-12 for us, pretty darn close. As much as you want to call it a bust, it isn't
Darrin...so do you agree with a state of emergency for 3 inches of snow??? It was a total bust.
Where in my comment did I say I agreed with the state of emergency? I must of missed where I typed that....still cannot find it.....words in my mouth apparently
state of emergency was based off the original predictions, I feel they jumped the gun and declared early on the state of emergency, but, we are basing our observations from what we saw in hackettstown, shore points had very strong winds and at times white out conditions, regardless of only getting 8 inches of snow. i have not seen snowfall totals for all parts of NJ so I really cannot comment more, I was watching my friends outdoor security cams at night in sayerville and you couldn't see sometimes
Greetings!
Here are the snow photos I took today on assignment for LehighValleyLive/The Express-Times - they are part of a huge gallery of all the images taken by staff/freelance photographers.
(My photos are #4 - #23)
http://photos.lehighvalleylive.com/4424/gallery/region_cleans_up_from_noreaste/index.html#/3
Larger images:
http://photos.lehighvalleylive.com/express-times/2015/01/region_cleans_up_from_noreaste_120.html
Nick Scalera Photo The thing that sucks about this storm is that now no one is going to listen to the warnings the next time around.
Trust have been killed and we will see the impacts during the next decent storm.
It's a good thing the forecasters don't live in South Africa! Holy Cow!
http://www.shortlist.com/home/weather-forecasters-face-jail-for-getting-it-wrong
more fun
http://www.nj.com/weather/index.ssf/2015/01/15_best_memes_from_the_blizzardof2015_that_wasnt.html
Phil, thats the same story I posted above, they really expect their weathermen to know their stuff!
Oops - sorry Darrin - somehow I missed seeing your earlier link! I saw it somewhere else and posted it here without checking to see if someone else had posted it first. Definitely my bad!
Prediction folks. Prediction. All predictions come with the caveat that there can be and will be inaccuracy. Nothing more nothing less. Good grief. It's a prediction.
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