War, peace, economics and waves
Not necessarily in that order lol.
For those of you who may have an extra half hour to waste/invest/spare this weekend I found this presentation discussing various economic theories enlightening. FWIW...
http://blog.cambridgehouse.com/2014/11/19/grant-williams-the-consequences-of-economic-peace/
justintime 
eperot I can't find the charts, but do get the gist. If you have another link, that would be great, I just get a blank spot where I think the charts are.
But jumping ahead, beside deeming this the inevitable, are there any recommendations, strategies or alternatives? Are we supposed to turn our intangible assets into tangible ones?
mistergoogle yep. we've been saying it for years, what goes up must come down,
unprecedented credit inflation must result at some point in time with a correspondingly unprecedented credit deflation. (this is true)
as i said before multiple times and the link supports; nixon taking us off the gold std was a bad move, the fed printing money it doesn't have to prop up the economy will result in a gross and crudely unforgiving correction down the road,
and i warned you guys earlier about the negative interest rates that are being implemented in Europe, hold on to your hats because negative interest rates are coming to a bank near you very soon.
and yes, major wars and economic strife cycles are inexorably linked together as the the charts presented show in repeating 53.5 year cycles for the last 200 years. a major war is coming for us when the 'unprecedented credit correction' hits.
this doesn't end well, and the presentation gives substance to the charge that currently 'we are eating our young'
thanks JIT, good discussion
BrotherDog Lol eprot, not really. This is the kind of stuff that should be discussed more but sadly isn't.
http://www.bloombergview.com/quicktake/negative-interest-rates
This is part of the "war on savers" mentioned in the video.
So sounds like negative interest is financial gamesmanship to reduce excess bank reserves versus attacking consumer savings. Sort of like the reverse of our new concept of paying interest on excess reserves in order to slow monetary expansion after "printing" money and reduce the amount of money available for loans. Think we are at 2.6Trillion now; that's more money than the stimulus printed!!!! Before 2008, the 2.6Trillion number was basically ------- zero. That's a lot of paper sidelined.
JIT, beyond telling us where we are, and besides just fixing it, did you see any recommendations the authors has for us, the little people, to do with our meager assets?
I take it buying equities is out.......
Mr G - Hedge funds. If you didn't realize it, the people. the video, and the newsletter it was advertised in are all in the hedge fund business. Not to worry, it's approved by our Congressman. ;-)
GC Better know where your broker's mother lives :>)
Oh, never mind, that won't matter :>) :>)
Wait......so this guy belongs to a company that is making as many waves as high as they can???
The trends weren't made up GC. They may be presented by people who want to exploit certain facts for profit, sure (that is the way of the world ya' know), but that doesn't make the trends any less true. Recall that the same thing was done by the gold bugs back in '08. The information they provided was/is accurate and the trends continue to this day (although if you choose to look only at gold price I could see how you may not agree), albeit at an accelerated pace. Anyway, if you choose to disregard the information because of the source, certainly that's within your prerogative. Ce' la vie. It's not like that's never happened before either lol.
Bottom line is I have no idea what comes next. Find me someone who does and I'll show you a cheat and a liar. No one knows. No one could possibly know what "solutions" will be brought forth to keep the trends mentioned above going (trends that just happen to benefit someone, like Congressmen, maybe?). ;-) All I'm asking is for people look at the trends, know they exist, and maybe ask questions like "why" instead of ignoring them. Come to any conclusion you want, but just don't pretend they don't exist.
Nope. Take the info for what it is. A look at where we've been and where we're at. The trend says extrapolate, does it not? So go ahead and assume that what we've been doing is the "right" thing, extrapolate based on that assumption, and ask yourself if maybe, just maybe, we should be having a discussion about something other than who's more racist than the other?
Actually I think racism is just as important as the economy and even linked at some point.
Yes, I agree with the current stats, I sort of agree with the biased reader's digest version of historical events, but I know this salient fact to be true: wherever you are in the economy, you have never been here before. And the lack of discussion of the govt paying interest on excess reserves seems an oversight since it is at the core of the US economy today.
Here's another view of current Fed moves that I think you will enjoy in a black humor sort of way: http://www.mauldineconomics.com/ttmygh/anne-elks-theory-on-brontosauruses
Still not sure how any of this doom n gloom leads to wanting to buy Hedge Funds, any ideas?
Not doom and gloom, just the trends. That's the point. You get to decide what to make of the trends. Obviously I don't see changes in the trends and therefore am comfortable extrapolating in the absence of any significant variations. If you feel the trend says "doom and gloom" might it be wise to acknowledge it and at least ask what might be the cause of the trend?
Being dismissive about the trend is also a trend too ya know ;-)
Oh JIT. If you think my concurrence means I am dismissive, you are wrong. All I noted was first, we have never been quite where we are in the economy ever before. Second, factually, he left out the excess reserve interest payment modification which is a massive effect; you can't put $2.6Trillion on the sidelines without some incredible effect and risk.
But no gloom n doom? His opening quote: "“There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency." I don't know about you, but makes me gloomy.
First chapter heading: "Mass Default Looms As World Sinks Beneath a Sea of Debt" is not an upper in my book.
The fact that he is consorting with Hedge Funders does not upset me either, just wonder if it's so rocky, that investing in some of the highest stake games seems prudent (unless you are the ones rocking the boat).
Meanwhile, you know where I stand re: our current debt, how we need to trim the sails, etc. in terms of reaction to current affairs. We may not agree as to reasons to incur debt, stimulus, etc, but think we both agree we are at too high a level. Of all the financial issues in the world, I think our debt is the one place that voters can make a difference and can make public opinion felt too.
Also, I am more in tune to how even little places like Greece, much less Europe, can affect us if only emotionally which is enough to start a panic. Add in machine trading, 24x7 markets, global trading, and weird associations like the Euro or Arab Oil Cartel, etc. and indeed there is much outside of the US that can affect us even if we do still financially rule the world.
So dismissive, no. Agreeing as to the facts, yes. Agreeing as to the inevitability of the outcome as being similar to the past. Nope ----- can guarantee it will be better or worse though, just hoping for better.
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