Major Storm System, 10+ inches of snow 3/2-3/4
As the chances for the Wednesday storm seems to be diminishing, this next storm system has been very consistent and is showing up on multiple models! This storm system is a prolonged event and is expected to start off by giving California some much needed heavy rain. It then begins to strengthen over the Oklahoma/Texas panhandle where it then takes off from there.
Much of the Eastern United States is under the gun for this storm system. I would not be surprised if there is a huge swath of 10″+ of snow and a decent ice event or Ice storm (>.50″) of ice. This could be the storm to remember but we will continue to watch it!
- See more at: http://www.northeastusweather.com/2014/02/24/significant-storm-system-to-affect-100-million-people-during-the-first-week-of-march/#sthash.5y962X3c.dpuf
http://www.northeastusweather.com/2014/02/24/significant-storm-system-to-affect-100-million-people-during-the-first-week-of-march/
This kind of stuff is a bunch of internet hype JR. Sure there could be a storm but like i keep saying anything more than 5 days out is fantasy-land. There are always going to be 'potential' snowstorms on a certain model during the winter. And the snow weenies will do whatever they can to hype it up. Last week the Euro showed basically the same thing for this week. How did that turn out? Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
and now we have Hackettstown Life hype and so on and so on and so on...then it's Face Book Hype and so on and so on and so on. This is why you can believe nothing. Nothing personal towards you jeffersonrepublic but people that seem to have a good head on their shoulders perpetuate stories all the time. They post it and people see it and the next thing you know that person has told a person at Target that there is a major storm and then they tell someone at Dunking Donuts and pretty soon there is no bread, eggs or milk left at Shop Rite. :-)
Thanks Bryan for the level headed response. I would take your evaluation as more reliable and honest than those trying to get attention with hype.
Hey firefly- right back at you. If "we can believe nothing", than anyone who tells anything is "perpetuating". Maybe you need to have another cup of coffee or tea and relax.
BTW- you did see the "???" in the topic title, right?
Bryan, thanks for checking in, that's the WHOLE REASON I posted this in the first place, I knew we'd get the skinny from you.
IF the worst happens, we can sit at home and watch baseball from Florida ... spring is coming.
1st Spring training game (for me- the Reds) is TOMORROW!!!! I'm already signed up for the MLB.TV package, and will be watching and listening to games starting tomorrow. It's the light at the end of this miserable tunnel that is winter.
Not a problem JR. I know you are one of smarter ones on here. I just see a lot of unrealistic storm hyping these days in general. Just trying to keep things in line LOL.
Well, hype or not, I'm going to go shopping for more salt and a snow shovel today (mine broke last storm).... just in case. If there's no storm, fine- the salt and shovel can live in the shed until next winter.
If there is, I won't be posting on here "does anybody know who has salt available?!?!?!?" LOL
JR - while you're out make sure you get the latest issue of Sports Illustrated. I hear it's a doozy. And pick me up a copy!
Because of all the naysayers on this thread, Mother Nature is going to get revenge and dump 10+ inches of snow on us, beginning of March. Bite your tongues! :-P
Hang on, bro ... spring is coming ... sooner or later.
When it does arrive, we'll be complaining about the bugs and the heat ... and I don't mean LeBron James.
JR- Where are you getting salt? My driveway is a skating rink. Must be prepared for the BIG ONE! Lol!
Feb '14
Only salt I saw was at Lowes- potassium chloride, $27/bag. About 20 bags. Too rich for my blood, it's not that kind of emergency. However, if my driveway was a skating rink, it would be...
Home Depot has mortons salt (water softener)? and sand. LOTS.
Oh- and if anybody needs a snow shovel, Lowes has about a dozen left.
I been using pool salt,its available at walmart,works well,as for a snow storm,no chance of that?Hackettstown life forum gets a little out of control !
I never said there was no chance of a storm. I'm just saying anyone who throws out any details is just wishing for something in most cases. I actually do think there will be a storm next week but it has as much chance of being rain or a mix as it does a snowstorm. Let alone how long it will last or what day(s) it will happen on. Plus you can say that about any week during the winter lol. What you can see is a pattern and that looks like it will remain cold for the foreseeable future, aside from a blip here and there.
JR, by all means go out and buy salt and a new snow shovel. That should ensure there will be no more snow.
HA!!! I did that 2 years ago with my snowblower and THERE WAS NO SNOW!!!! Crazy how that actually works....
Firefly I took your post as a "funny" one. :) I didnt think you were insulting.
Things written are soooooo hard to hear ;)
From the forecasts I have been following there is the potential for a long duration winter storm starting Sunday morning and continuing Monday and into Tuesday afternoon. The exact track is still unknown but there could be moderate to heavy snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain. The forecasts are still very uncertain so look for updates as we get closer.
Feb '14
That's true BLD. Like I said, high probability for a storm but details very uncertain.
I sure hope this next one is a miss for us. I have training all next week and will not be able to work from home if needed. I hope it goes either north or south of us - or just goes out to sea and misses us entirely! LOL
I have to say that as much as I enjoy meteorology, and have picked up a lot when it comes to "how it works", reading Bryan's posts here has given me a lot of additional insight it.
I'm a lot more discerning when listening to my weather report now. :)
The Facebook chatter/hype has begun.
From Severe NJ Weather's FB page.
KABOOOOOOM goes the overnight European model.
That's 12+ inches of snow showing for NNJ and at least 3-6 inches of snow for SNJ. This system looks like a prolonged event that could start as early as Sunday night and last through Tuesday. The European is pretty locked into this and other guidance is hopping on board as well. Temperatures appear marginal for SNJ which is why less accumulations are showing. Regardless of starting and/or ending as snow, SNJ (especially SENJ/coast) would likely mix to rain for a period. This is the current model output but it's been consistent. Model image reproduced with permission from Accuweather Pro.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10152281699963352&set=a.10150510202963352.430992.338552703351&type=1&theater
What I like the most is that Bryan can report on Hackettstown area weather which might be different from weather 20 miles away. I also like the information on when it MIGHT start and end. I love the anticipation of waiting for the storm to begin, settling in during and then getting out to start cleaning up near the end of the storm. Go with the flow. thanks Bryan.
From weathertrend360's FB page.
Over the next week our snow tally outlook shows the potential for the snowiest end to February/beginning of March in over 25 years for the U.S. overall! 45% of the U.S. will be impacted by this storm. The models have been fairly consistent with this event and general timing so it looks to get very wintry the first few days of March from the Rockies to the Northeast. A widespread band of 4-12" this weekend into yet another Monday morning commute in the Northeast. This will be accumulating snow event #25 for wt360 headquarters in Bethlehem, PA and very likely to make this winter our snowiest in history!
https://www.facebook.com/weathertrends360/photos/a.144164645596411.26292.144149565597919/750730818273121/?type=1&theater
The latest update from Severe NJ Weather.
KABOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM goes the 12Z GFS!!
GFS now agrees with the Euro with a 12+ inch snow event Sunday through Tuesday morning. Philadelphia through New York City are in the jackpot accumulation zone per this model run. Sunday is only 4 days away so it's just about time to sound the alarms on this one. Model image from WeatherBell.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10152281895308352&set=a.10150510202963352.430992.338552703351&type=1&theater
This one is from Eastern PA Weather Authority.
12z GFS hot off the press maintains the significant snow threat for a few days from now. Verbatim to the GFS run, snow begins Sunday evening and lasts into Tuesday. Mixing issues near the PA Turnpike and I-95 at first, but changes to snow there too as the front drops south. Some ridiculously high snow amounts shown on the snow maps, but they will change and don't account for sleet properly - and counts it as snow on the snow maps. So in other words, they are misleading. We are sticking with "significant winter storm" wording, not amounts yet.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=464257250341887&set=a.240811722686442.39244.240517726049175&type=1&theater
I think it might be time for Bryan's thoughts. Sigh...
I trust a few sources...
Bryan
EasternPA Weather Authority
Severe NJ Weather
Weather.gov
Between all four sources, I've gotten a pretty accurate picture of most storms.
Thanks JJ. The more you learn the more you see how tough it is to forecast.
I may end up eating my own words on this one. The models are going nuts for next week right now.
Not a forecast but most models show snow of varying intensity Mon thru Weds next week. Well over a foot. Again not a forecast, just what the models show. The thing about this is they have been somewhat consistent and they all show some type of sig storm.
Bryan - Did you mean "big" storm, or should I get the Sigs out of the gun safe for this one. ;-)
This winter really is unbelievable. When do you think you will have a better handle on totals? Saturday?
Over a FOOT!? Is this a joke? Please tell me when it's safe to come out of the cave I'm typing from. Thank you.
YUP sorry guys I second the YAY!!!!
Also looking forward to March Madness as I am a FLORIDA GATOR. Never too early to start talking brackets. ESPN is all over saying brackets will be CRAZY this year so many teams could win it all. Should be fun.
My "yay" was lower case and with a period instead of an exclamation point, in an attempt to show sarcasm. Apparently it failed.
So,
SHIT!
calico - sig = significant. Either way you might need those guns LOL. Since this looks like it could be a multiple part storm i would say we won't know totals for quite a while. Not to mention precip type, etc.
catmom - A month ago I decided that the right way to deal with "mil/bread" emergency instead of trying to get any parking at ShopRite is to buy Parmalat and flour. So I am all set till May 1st.
Locked and loaded. Good thing I'm using hollowpoints.... FMJs go right thru snowmen...
when are we going to get the government involved in redistribution of good weather?
Isn't weather inequality an important issue??
why should some people enjoy more than their fair share of good weather? it's like we're moving to a two tiered society, those who have good weather and those who are snowed under.
Why do they get to hog all the good weather and lord it over us, smirking at our discomfort, lecturing us by saying things like, "you need to pull yourself up by your own bootstraps" or "just move south stupid, no one is making you stay there"
"Pull yourself up by your own bootstraps"? My snow is so deep i can't even see my boot straps, i don't even know if i have any bootstraps.
i just want what's coming to me . . . that's all, why do we even have a government if they can't do this one simple thing?
yes, we are VICTIMS of the weather.... it's NOT FAIR some people get great weather year 'round, but we don't. We ALL DESERVE better weather than this. I, for one, will not vote for anyone who doesn't promise me better weather. Because I'm ENTITLED to it.
Damn these winters and their High Capacity Snow Storms!
If it saves just one plow...
I say Christie and Sweeney pass a law: NO SNOW STORMS OVER 4" ALLOWED.
Why 4" instead of 3" or 6"? Why not? 4 is as arbitrary a number as any other...
I cant take it anymore! SNOW means no work for hubby means no pay since company makes us use sick and vacation pay. This sucks.......
Maybe we should rethink a move.
The two disturbances that could impact the forecast for Sunday -Tuesday are currently in the Arctic and Pacific and are very volatile. I would think the earliest any reputable forecaster could give a credible forecast would be Friday.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/nhem/wv-animated.gif
Feb '14
JR - Doesn't matter... they would just blame PA's lax anti-snowing laws for sending the moisture our way.
Oz sounds better and better. I'm with you Lena....have flour,yeast and baking powder ,parmalait and dry milk, and lots of cans of progresso soup. Good survival food. Someone knock on my door when it's all over. If you can find the door that is!
Has anyone heard a recent update on the upcoming storm for Monday? I know it is quite early yet.I have to go grocery shopping.I am seriously out of everything.I cant make it to the grocery store until Saturday.Please tell me I wont be waiting in line forever.I just need to do the normal family grocery trip.
Love it, BrotherDog. Let's redistribute our snow. I bet it would surprise some folks in, say, San Diego.
Bryan... You are my standard. You have proven to be correct a majority of the time.
Your help on this blog is monumental. Please be proud of the work you have done. It is greatly appreciated. You may not realize this, but you help people....
Thanks.... Bob
Thanks so much Bob. I'm glad I can help out and be reliable.
BTW - since I don't see TWC mentioning it, there should be a few snow showers around as a cold front comes through late morning/early afternoon tomorrow (Thursday). Generally not a big deal but a few spots can pick up a heavier squall. A hit and miss thing but better to know about it than not.
If March comes in like a lion, it goes out like a lamb, right?
Orioles' home opener at Camden Yards is March 31 ... am so looking forward to it.
If Buck Showalter has his way, the players may even know who Frank Robinson is.
Get with the times... it's called "climate change" now, because the "global warming" thing obviously wasn't panning out. lol
Heading to south Jersey this weekend. Need to know should I head home Sunday or can wait til Monday? Dont want to get snowed in.
Feb '14
Probably best to leave Sun. The snow should start Sun PM into Mon am.
Anyone wanna talk about the noreaster the Euro is showing for NEXT weekend? Crazy stuff.
I'm seriously about at the point where I want to buy a month's worth of food, and not leave the house for anything until April. Even walking the dog is misery in this arctic deep-freeze (that is when I can get him to go out! He's not stupid!)
As I said in my post above the exact tract of this storm and the location of the snow, ice and rain lines are still uncertain and probably won't be known until at least tomorrow. You should expect periods of moderate to heavy snowfall, sleet, freezing rain and rain Sunday on through Tuesday and be prepared for it because this will be a long duration storm.
Feb '14
JR - Food? Cases and cases of beer are more my idea. ;-)
Bryan - Next weekend? DEAR LORD!!!!!!!
Maybe I should change my gravatar again. IT'S NOT WORKING!!!!!!!
I don't like to throw out amounts 4 days ahead of time. There are things that can still change but I would definitely expect at least a moderate snowfall especially Sun night into Mon morning. After that the models don't really agree. It may just high tail out of here or another storm can form. It's basically a series of storms riding a cold front. Kinda similar to what we had in December.
"I just see a lot of unrealistic storm hyping these days in general. Just trying to keep things in line LOL."
Bryan
1 day ago
"Anyone wanna talk about the noreaster the Euro is showing for NEXT weekend? Crazy stuff."
Bryan
16 mins ago
Feb '14
Uh oh!
Snow and some Bryan haters! Not a good combo!!
I live snow and hate Bryan haters!
Haha I enjoy snow and tracking storms. Sometimes I can't help myself. It's one thing to mention a storm. Totally different than throwing out maps, amounts, etc. Not like I'm starting a thread on it.
There are two places I go to for weather updates...Hackettstown Life and Eastern PA Weather Authority. Thanks Bryan! And on the post about wanting to talk about the Euro and next weekends nor'easter, I say tell us about it, I've learned more on weather tracking between these two sources this winter then ever before. It's weather, it can change, but how great to see the many sources that play into the forecast!
you guys are going to the bottle king?
come come we can't have a bottle queen? why does it have to always be the bottle king? what's up wit dat ?
the homophobia in the retail liquor industry is just stunning.
i have two sources for weather, Bryan's spot on updates, and sticking my head out the window, seems to work pretty good.
i have to say i do have a 'thing' for that Linda Churchill on channel 11, have no idea if her predictions are accurate or not. never actually see her maps . . . . .
does the 'naked news' team cover the weather? (are they allowed inside the CVS?)
Back to the music. This is taken from NWS Mt Holly Long Term Discussion...
"NOTHING IS EVER SET IN STONE THIS FAR OUT IN TIME, IT WOULD BE
PRACTICAL FOR ANYONE INVOLVED WITH WINTER WEATHER MITIGATION TO USE
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO GET PREPARED. "
I come here to find out when snow is coming and how much.
I don't really need it predicted by inches, just whether I can ignore it, shovel/snowblow it myself, or if I should call for a plow. I like snow, but I'm at the point I prefer it in the ignore it and and it will melt amounts.
The detail of the latest NWS discussion -
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on
Admittedly I have loved watching these threads over the winter but didn't "dig deeper" - this link is a good read with easy "Pop-up" definitions provided for the Alphabet Soup abbreviations that Governments always seem to like. (just toggle the "Glossary Off" button at the top of the page and any high-lighted/underlined terms will pop up in a definition window when clicked)
Yeah I read those discussions a lot Kurt. You can learn a lot.
Ok sit down for this. Both the GFS and Euro are now onboard for a foot or more Monday.
*&^%$#@!!!!!!!!! I hate you Bryan. ;-)
When can we expect the first NOAA briefing and/or snow map?
"Oh my" Calico. Too funny.
Bryan, I hate you too. jk. I just HATE snow. Screws up everything.
Feb '14
OK, time to hunt down all those in the "snow lovers unite" thread and beat them about the head until senseless.
I'm honestly not looking for a big storm. I prefer the smaller ones. But it is what it is. Also below 0 cold in March is not for me either.
As far as today's snow showers, they should mainly be between 4 and 7. A little slower than I thought earlier.
And to reiterate - the location of the snow, ice and rain lines are still uncertain and probably won't be known until at least tomorrow. The GFS currently has 12-14" for central to northern NJ but it was 10-12" this morning. And it'll probably be different tonight and then again tomorrow.
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2014/02/nj_could_get_6_inches_of_snow_on_monday.html#incart_m-rpt-1
Feb '14
Once again, thank you so much for your updates and forecasts, Bryan. No one is more helpful re: weather than you!
Regardless of whether snow makes you jump for joy or break into tears, I'm sure we can all agree that it's better to have NOTICE that a large storm may be in the works for us. At least this way we can prepare for the potential, and be ready if it happens.
ask and you shall rec'v Calico...
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf
Thanks Bryan. Well whatever type of precipitation it turns out to be, we are in the bull's eye of it for sure.
Can we assume it will be wet and heavy or fluffy?
I am guessing wet and heavy just to really make it a double royal PITA
Just let me be able to get someone to get to the store. We are so out of everything. No check until Friday and no one available until Sunday. UGG!!
Christine~ if you haven't found anyone by Sat, let me know and I'll run out for you.
If we stay in the frigid cold air as it snows, it will be the white fluffy stuff (nice and light). If the temps start to rise.....watch out for the wet, heavy stuff.
I choose the light, fluffy stuff. My back chooses it too.
Feb '14
It could really go either way, all of the storm systems the last month have been completely unpredictable.
It will be powdered snow, according to current forecasts, the temps will be really low so your backs will be happy about that.
For those talking about salt:
Non pellet water softner salt will work, but it's in large pieces, about 8x the size of granular rock salt. Try breaking it up a little before applying it, if you have a hand tamper/flat shovel in your garage that will work, can crush it in the bag as they're usually pretty durable. You don't want it to stay around forever, it's bad for your grass, your driveway, and worse for your pets. If you use it and haven't sealed your driveway in awhile you'll probably have to this summer.
Thanks baci's mom. It all depends on my boys if they have to work. I truly appreciate the offer.
Christine ~ I will be around Saturday if you need a ride to the store. Have plans after 1:00 but would be happy to help.
Thoroughly enjoying reading all of these comments, LOL! Thank you Bryan for your updates!! Bring it on!!!
I can deal with all this snow, it's the dam cold temps I'm sick of. Sick and tired of being cold, 4 months now. Bring on 80 degrees, hell I'll settle for 40 at this point.
Thanks jrzy...will keep in mind. Not sure I can do the shopping. We are trying to figure out everyones work schedule tonight.
I am overwhelmed with all the offers for help. Thanks everyone.
ok why would anyone talk about another storm next weekend when this one is going to be crazy enough.We are looking at quite the storm this week.
God looking forward to warmer weather.
Globally, temperatures are up. In our "neighborhood" they have been significantly below average:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-percentile-mntp/201401.gif
OP I cannot stop looking and laughing at the deer with the bread (is it a sandwich?!) in his mouth, stuck in the snow! Did you take that??
I have been throwing out of date bread across the street from my house into the woods to try to help out the animals. I can't imagine how they are surviving with this persistent snow cover.
Let's wait just a bit more before we get too crazy here but ALL signs points to a foot plus. Not to mention, as per the models, several coastal storms follow this one over following 10 days or so. Just insane. No one wants that believe me. I'm just pointing it out because it's just so ridiculous. Unheard of really.
5Cat if steps taken during shopping count, then I am always in!!!
Bryan say it isn't so, I have a trip coming up, please no snow!
"State of the Climate" from NOAA
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/
Full Report:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/1
Interesting reading from the best weather source the world has, but in this field the best does not bat 1000...
Record heat in California, Anchorage, Sydney, Christchurch, Perth, and more. Let's not forget those balmy Sochi temps. Thats pretty global. Everywhere *but* here just to give us snow bunnies something to look forward to. ;-)
GC- thats really what I meant. Its not happening here. Lol. So sick of this weather.
Feb '14
"Globle [sic] warming??? Where??"
Probably everywhere but here! NASA and NOAA have released data showing that 2013 was in fact one of the hottest on record - it came in as a tie for the 7th hottest year since 1880.
“With the exception of 1998, the 10 warmest years in the 134-year record all have occurred since 2000, with 2010 and 2005 ranking as the warmest years on record,” the NASA news release states.
Right now i wouldn't expect any snowfall records here. I can't say exactly what our record would be though. High Point had just over 120" in 95-96. NYC however is on track to break their all time record which was around 75" in 95-96.
Funny question of the day: "Globle [sic] warming??? Where??"
Perhaps global? Or to put it in local terms: anyfrackinwhere but here :>)
"You have the world at your fingertips
No one can make it better than you
You have the world at your fingertips
But see what you've done to the rain and the sun
So many changes have all just begun, to reap
I know you're asleep, wake up"
any updates on when it starts on sunday??? we have a choral concert in Secaucus for my 12 year old at 3pm..............
Same here I have somewhere to be at 4pm on Sunday, and wont get home until 8-10pm, want to know if the travel will be worth it.
I heard Alaska has had a warmer winter than we have had here. Hard for me to believe, but that's what I heard.
For everyone who offered to help with my grocery shopping. My one son is off at 2pm and we will be heded over to do it. I just hope its not crazy and food is left.
thank you all for the offers I truly appreciate it and am humbled. Will keep in mind for the future. Being laid up is no fun at all. I sometimes feel useless.
On Sunday, when is the snow supposed to start?. When do you think it will end on Monday?
From Severe Weather NJ......The 12Z GFS just came out shifting the entire jackpot zone into CNJ and SNJ Sunday night-Tuesday morning. This is a pretty radical shift south compared to other model guidance. This crushes DC, BAL, PHL, and NYC with a foot plus of snow but then cuts off for areas north of that axis.
Could it be we're going to be spared?
Bessie - The next sentence after what you posted above is this:
Not sure if I buy this idea just yet. If the rest of today's models come in like this, however, then I'll be adjusting the light blue zone of my snow map to a snowier solution.
So I think more model runs are needed before we can use the word spared. LOL
I read that Calico..just curious what others thought about the model or if others were buying that model..guess I should have posted the whole thing
Here is the breakdown for NYC concerning their snowfall records. If the majority of current model guidance verifies they could easily be in the #2 slot in the pic by this time Tuesday.
Whaddya think? Advisory on early Saturday changed to Warning late Sunday when they forecast ice storm?
We gotta get these guys some better forecasting model software.......
In 7 days I'll be close to there right about this time. Grand Cayman. Can't come fast enough
MisterGoogle,
No I can't see an ice storm around these parts. If there is no major shift with the models in the next 12 to 24 hours my gut feeling is NWS Mt Holly posts Winter Storm Watches around here tomorrow and upgrades that to Winter Storm Warnings VERY early in the day Sunday. Bryan whatta ya think?
Although March is coming in like a lion I don't see an ice storm in this area, according to the forecasts that I am following. There is the potential for a major ice storm in South Jersey/MD with up to .50" of ice. That area would first get snow which would change to sleet and then to freezing rain and then back to snow. In our area we have the potential for 10-16" of snow mixing with sleet. The storm should begin between 4-8 P.M. Sunday and will end 8-11 P.M. Monday night. The worst of it will be 9A.M. -9P.M. Monday - a very long durational storm. Areas north of us will get 8-12" of snow and it will be all snow. Areas south of us like Philly will get 4-9" of snow with up to .25" of ice. Again, it will start as snow and then change to sleet and freezing rain and then back to snow. But there is a caveat to this forecast. This is a complicated storm and conditions are very volatile. Right now there is a low pressure system off the coast of California that looks like a hurricane.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/nhem/wv-animated.gif
It's causing a lot of rain in California. This system will travel east and may be suppressed by the Polar Vortex that is now invading our area and be pushed south of our area. If it is suppressed then you can cut the snow totals in half in our area and north of our area. But then Philly will get slammed and their snow totals will go up. So we have to wait for the system to hit land, which should be tonight and we'll have a better idea of what to expect.
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2014/02/nj_stuck_in_a_winter_rut_snow_on_the_way_single-digit_temperatures.html#incart_m-rpt-1
As to the storm Brian was talking about for next weekend the forecasts that I follow say that storm is going to be a coastal storm and it'll stay out to sea having a minimal impact on us. That could change but we certainly have enough time to make changes in the forecast before then.
Feb '14
Last I checked NYC had more snow than Anchorage this year. I have not been online most of the day. I did see the GFS shifted the heaviest to our south. I expect the models to waffle a bit. Could we miss the heaviest? It's possible. But too soon to know for sure.
I didn't realize the Euro also shifted south. The Euro had been south and then came back north yesterday, only to shift again. The NAM kind of has us on the edge of the heavy precip. Looking like a closer call than I originally thought. Someone is going to get plastered of course regardless. It's a fine line. Like I always say, 50 miles will make a huge difference. All we can do is keep looking at the models as they update, later tonight and tomorrow. With each run now i'll think we'll get a better consensus.
Sorry didn't mean to scare everyone but I am getting so used to shifting models with the crud from the South shifting North that I am gunshy if not snowshy on their predictions. Currently my only prediction is we're going to get precipitation.
Bryan, Anchorage has 75 inches average and is pretty tame by Alaska standards. We who grew up in the snow belt laugh at them.
The current NOA prediction JR shows is weird given the area of heavier snow is a pocket not a band. Nor linked to the mountains really either.
So I am getting ready, hope everyone else is, and will probably write Monday off. And then another short cold snap ----- yipppppeeee.
happy naked friday everyone,
here is a naked weather news report:
Doria Tillier French Weathergirl Does Weather Forecast NAKED!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SPPQ7jdRgl4
I chatted with my friend Kevin who works for NASA and he thinks we're looking at a solid 10". Better have your snow boot stilts ready because it's going to be a big one.
Yeah i know about Anchorage MG. It's more shock value than anything, just to say NYC got more snow than somewhere in AK. High Point ave's about the same as Anchorage too. Which is also more than Green Bay. But of course we get more precip in general being right near the coast.
Hope Bryan doesn't get any ideas with that link you posted brotherdog. If he starts doing naked forecasts I'm outta here.
Anchorage averaged +12F in January but has still pulled over 50" to date of snow.
What would happen if it was +12F around here -- no snow. Heck, we have had winters at +7F or +8F and it was pretty snowless.
Don't worry. H-town already has the naked cowboy, so i wont go there LOL.
No doubt there is a trend south with this still tonight. The CA storm has slowed down and that's allowing the Polar Vortex to push it farther south. I'm shocked to see a storm trend south this time of year.
Bottom line i have to cut back, but still think 4-8 with a shorter duration type storm. Starting later Sun and ending earlier Monday.
I'm sorry for South Jersey but happy for us. Anything under 12 inches is a win for me!
Still thinking 4 to 8 as of early this morning. Models have come just a little bit north again. A 20 mile shift north can double those amounts. I hate to live and die on the models but when it's that tight there's not much else you can do.
NOAA briefing from yesterday -
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf
Mar '14
......UNLESS, as Bryan just said.... the storm moves 20 miles. Then it has the potential to be 8"-16".
Personally, I'd rather have all rain. Let it flood- at least it'll get rid of all the damned snow.
for rain this weekend I think you have to go to the lounge and wish for it - jsut keep it in your part of the lounge because my part will have warming sun
meanwhile - EPWA indicates a model shift back north this morning - and stands at higher amounts
Oh marvy, we got a Storm WATCH as of 4am this morning. Not a warning but a watch. Good to be careful with those alerts even though most prudent people are in warning mode already.
And the ice moved South, the important part being that it's still moving......
I want this job as forecaster where you only have to be right AFTER the event and yet keep your job.
I think MrCharlie2 and me need to have a discussion out behind thr shed regarding hus rnthusiasm for more snow and cold...
ENOUGH ALREADY!
milk, bread, eggs, coffee, sugar, flour, pork & beans, water, batteries, sterno, candles, firewood and a new can of endust
that's about right.
Giant snowblower, plow, four-wheel drive, iPhone, hotel rewards points and resturant.com coupons.
GFS and NAM just ran. The south trend continues. We are definitely in the lighter part of the storm (as of what they show now). Amounts go way up as you start heading south. Eyeballing it, it looks like you could add an inch for each 10 miles you are south of Rt 80 and especially south of 78. I-78 would be the line where it starts to get heavier.
Today's project- removing all ice from driveway to accommodate new snow. Yay! At least I have salt....and some sun.
@Calico - your new gravatar may be the break we need !
This little boy has the best prayer - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oe7-wVUy_Ew
Gasoline. For the generator. In case we lose power. So I can at least have fun playing my guitars. Got the fixin's for winter vegtable beef stew, baked ziti, and iced lemon cake. And the wine rack is full, of course.
Now, if only there was some way to get my dog to go out in this crap, so he doesn't hold it for 18 hours.... I feel bad for him. I wouldn't want to have to pee and poo in this crap either.
We shovel an open spot, on the large side, with paths off of it for" stuff". Even the younger dog didn't like the depth of this last snow and the 13 year old with arthritis was going to hold it till she popped. Can't squat in snow that's over your belly....and she is not a small dog.
I shovel a large path... he'll pee if ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY, but won't go outside if it's snowing or raining. Basically have to wait until he knows he HAS to go and can't hold it any longer.... and that really sucks when that time is 3:00am
"This is a complicated storm and conditions are very volatile. Right now there is a low pressure system off the coast of California that looks like a hurricane.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/nhem/wv-animated.gif
It's causing a lot of rain in California. This system will travel east and may be suppressed by the Polar Vortex that is now invading our area and be pushed south of our area. If it is suppressed then you can cut the snow totals in half in our area and north of our area. But then Philly will get slammed and their snow totals will go up."
BLD
Yup, according to the forecasts I follow this what is happening. The low pressure system is weakening as it travels over land and this means Philly and South Jersey are going to get the worst of this storm. They are projected to get heavy snow mixed with sleet at times with accumulations of 10-15" of snow and .10" of sleet. We'll get 4-8" of snow and north of us will get 1-4". The storm will start out as sleet in our area Sunday afternoon and then change over to snow, ending Monday afternoon. The Monday morning commute will be a mess but the evening commute won't be much better.
Mar '14
keeps going down.... that's good.... altho it looks like both commutes, but especially the morning one, will be affected monday...
Bryan predicted the lowered snow amounts..Only reinforces me coming here to see the weather and not trusting my weather fb predictor likes, nor the weather guys on tv...Had a thought, maybe we could treat Bryan to lunch?
Latest NOAA briefing - Saturday afternoon
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf
Also, the storm that Bryan was so excited about for next weekend looks like it is going to be a rain event at this time. JR may get his wish - he'll just have to wait until Friday.
Mar '14
Bryan is terrific. I appreciate all the information he gives us. Thank you so much.
Thanks guys. Maybe i can try to hit one of the meetups over the summer. I haven't done that since i moved. I was really 90% sure we'd get hit hard from this storm a few days ago. I've never seen a storm get pushed south like this in March. It's crazy. At the moment i think about 2-4". Now if you are down closer to 78, then a few inches more.
Are you thinking the duration will change, Bryan? Sunday evening into Monday afternoon or shorter now, given the decrease in totals?
Thanks for all you do.
Looks like it will start early tomorrow afternoon and end around mid morning or so Monday. Keep in mind with the lighter intensity and higher March sun angle, the roads shouldn't be much as of an issue during the daylight hours.
I'm happy but not happy...was kind of looking forward to the last snow day of the season
Can it still change or will it definitely stay south (or at least as definite as weather can be). Not sure if the models are written in stone when the storm is this close. I'm afraid to do the happy dance just yet, LOL.
I'm in the same boat. If we got a foot I wouldn't mind but at the same time I'm thinking of all the work that comes with it.
Here's what can happen. There are still 2 major model runs. Later tonight and mid day tomorrow. It's possible they could both shift north at the last minute. It's happened before this winter. It wouldn't take much to put us back in the 6-12. So if you want hope, that would be it. Otherwise it will be pretty light in our area.
I'll take 2-4, thank you very much. I'm working in the firehouse Monday, which is in Hudson County. So I'll be shoveling snow all day long Monday during my 24 hour shift, when we're not training or responding to alarms, or (heaven forbid) fighting a fire. Then I get to come home and dig out Tuesday. I'd rather it not be a foot of snow.
As I said before, the only people who cheer about big snowfalls are the ones who don't have to clean it up or work in it.
Yeah Bryan....GFS comes out around 10:30 tonight I believe and the Euro is out around 1AM. Am I the only weather nut staying up for the Euro??? :-)
The latest NAM pushes this even more south now. Crazy. Philly and South Jersey appear to be in the screw zone now as far as big snows.
Hudson County runs near the Hudson River....Kearny, North Arlington, Harrison, North Bergen, West New York. The area is close to Newark.
The Bishop- I have to shovel, sometimes 10 hours...depending how much snow we get and I beg to differ, I really enjoy it. I guess I'm a little nutty! Lol.
@positive..asking Bishop where in Hudson County because my family lives there and I visit most weekends...haven't been since mid January because of all the snow, very hard to find parking in Hoboken, normally..close to impossible with all the snow.
Oh! Sorry..I misread your post. Yes, I can only imagine having to park over there with so much snow! Good luck Bessie. :)
I work out of a firehouse in Union City, not far from Hoboken. Parking in Hoboken was hard enough *before* the snow.
Positive, I don't mind a little physical labor, but everyone has limits. :)
GFS and Euro are slightly north. NAM actually went just a bit south. I still see 2-4 as a safe bet. Again a 25 mile shift more north would almost double those amounts.
The_Bishop - I have a co worker who lives in Union City, right next to a firehouse, down a bit from the skyway. The couple of times I've been there I've been real careful not to park too close and end up blocking one of the big hook and ladders from coming out.
Based on the forecasts I am following snow accumulation total have decreased for our areas and now are forecasted to be 2-4". As I mentioned in my post above Philly and South Jersey are going to get the brunt of this storm. Travel won't be a problem today but the morning commute will be messy, especially if you have to travel south. It'll be interesting to see if the local schools have delayed openings or cancel school tomorrow. I am sure they are loathe to cancel since most have already used all their snow days and are now taking days from Spring Break.
Mar '14
so does anyone know when its suppose to start by us??? I have to be at Secaucus at 3pm..
BLD i'm never sure if you are using your own words or paraphrasing from somewhere else. But either way, i agree with your post.
Beyond that, record breaking cold comes the 1st half of the week. The coastal storm at the end of the week has to be watched, but at the moment it would brush us at best/worst. A clipper could come through on Saturday. Cold will generally continue but at least the bitter cold *should* be done after these next few days.
Looks like this "storm" is going to be a dud from what I'm reading on weather forums.
They are all disappointed, I am not.
first flakes in Diamond Hill... arrived a bit late, wonder if that means it'll be late in leaving tomorrow?
Bryan, thanks, as always, for your thoughts on Monday-Tuesday (although: 1-3? 2-4? 3-6? aagghhh!) -- and for your assessment on possibilities for the next week or so.
Of course, I will never say never, but I'm hoping that the worst of this frigid, snowy, icy is behind us...surely by mid-March there should only be a few small snow events through the end of March.... *fingers and toes crossed*
Nothing showing here, just north of Hackettstown. I've got every appendage that I *can* cross, crossed. Let it stay *south*.
It's just as well. I think my pups have had enough of the snow anyway and are "snow-crazed". See for yourself:
http://youtu.be/niI19PH2hqY
Cute Rich!
Had to "log in" to view that link. Here's another link for your vid for people who don't have an account:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=niI19PH2hqY&feature=youtu.be
State of emergency has just been declared according to hackettstown police department Facebook page
State of Emergency for what? I just looked at the Weather Channel web site and the NWS web site and its a minor event. What si the emergency?
State of emergency? What a joke.. most of the state won't even get anything significant.
Even if they did get 2 to inches, that's enough to call a State of Emergency? Suddenly we live in southern Georgia?
State office in Trenton is closed is what the link said. I had to read it twice. More for Trenton area and south.
Hackettstown Police Department
51 minutes ago
.
From HPD FB PAGE:
STATE OF EMERGENCY DECLARED, NO TRAVEL BAN IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME, STATE OFFICE CLOSED MONDAY 3/3/14
Trenton, NJ – With Winter Storm Titan expected to arrive in New Jersey tonight, Governor Chris Christie declared a State of Emergency, authorizing the State Director of Emergency Management to coordinate all preparation, response and recovery efforts for the storm with all county and municipal emergency operations and governmental agencies. Governor Christie also announced the closing of state offices on Monday, March 3rd for all non-essential employees.
“This winter storm is expected to arrive tonight and last through Monday, bringing heavy snow and creating hazardous travel conditions throughout the state,” said Governor Christie. “I’ve authorized state officials to take all necessary actions, and my Administration will monitor conditions throughout the remainder of the storm. I encourage all New Jerseyans to drive carefully and remain off the roads if possible so that our first responders and public safety officials can safely respond to any emergency situations.”
Tonight’s storm is expected to continue through Monday, bringing heavy snow, freezing temperatures and mixed precipitation, as well as dangerous and icy conditions that will affect travel throughout the state for several days. A potential mixture of fallen trees, power outages and flooding is anticipated.
So relax people....
Minor for us up here but in south Jersey they could get 8-10 inches. I am sure in south Jersey they wonder why the need for a state of emergency during past storms while we are usually the ones getting hammered with snow while they get nothing.
2 to 6 inches is not getting hammered..not to sound old, but State of Emergencies were reserved for 2 ft of snow.
Since he got caught on vacation and left the Lt Gov in charge- who was also away on vacation-during an actual big storm in late Dec2010- he overreacts to any snow to have the appearance of being in control.
And, of course- it gives some more smoke screen for the recent scandals-
And those harsh words come from someone who voted for him!
He'll pay less in building operational costs, not pay state workers, and yet apply for Federal Grant money to pay for the huge debt he's running up.
golfer07840, I was inferring to us having bad snows up here in the past and less in the south of the state yet a state of emergency has been called. Not talking about this storm. Sorry for the confusion.
276 posts on the storm that wasn't. Probably Christies fault. He may have closed the D.M.B so the storm could not get up here. It's a conspiracy I tell you.
The storm that didn't show up! Who would have guessed that the cold would be so strong that it would have kept the snow away. Could this be the end and spring is on it's way? One can only hope.
Mar '14
So glad I set the alarm earlier today to give myself time to shovel out all this snow
Yup no snow for you! haha. It was certainly trending towards bust. Although expecting 2-4 and getting nothing isn't really earth shattering. Pretty much saw that coming when i went to bed last night. 6-10 for south jersey, 3-5 for central still stands. Everything just dried up, up this way.
Watching the live radar, literally looks as tho the storm is avoiding North Jersey, as if a Bubble is keeping it from hitting us
All nj dmv's closeed,again, give me a break gov christie. For those of us trying to get work done this is ridiculous. I know a state worker in morris county who has another day off today, really?????
In Manchester, Ocean Cty and there is maybe 1-1/2 inches. Still snowing though. What a bust!
Mar '14
OK, I used the And yet those forecasters did not even lose their winter bonus! I want this job :>)
I used the Calico/BDog blizzard preparation and to stay ahead of the storm I have already consumed the Beer, vodka, club soda, lemons, and pretzels so I had to call in sick to work and now I am sitting here drunk wondering what to do with this can of endust?
Glad not to plow today, no could we send this cold away too?
WOW! you guys see all that snow this morning!!!! I could of mistaken it for FROST! What a bummer! The weatherman needs to go back to being a weatherman rather then a computer reader!
This is one happy lady in PM. No shoveling, no additional ice chopping. What will I do with my extra time today?
sooooo happy that the stormed shifted!! what a complicated system apparently!! no shoveling, no car cleaning!! (and the dog will go outside!)
So we got no snow but somehow we lost even more parking spaces and the lawn is all torn up where the landscapers moved snow to make room for new snow.
This guy wants to return eggs......LMAO
http://www.city-data.com/forum/new-jersey/2063150-can-i-return-eggs-if-i.html
Those poor eggs. Hopefully they weren't traumatized when being slowly brought to a boil. Unlike these guys.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eW9vOrgY_K4
Labcorp in Hackettstown and Succasuna had a 2 hour delay this morning. It was ridiculous. Unfortunately they never called any of the patients scheduled between 7:00AM - 9:00AM. Everyone was waiting in the hallway and outside.
I think I'm going to go "like" severe nj weather's FB page, just so I can comment "KABOOM" on every post they make
18 inches to nothing,24 hours prior to a storm is all that matters everything else is pure speculation...funny how all the people in the news media never mentioned it this morning..lol
Mar '14
The media loves to get people frenzied with their ridiculous maps, naming every storm, and over the top predictions.
It's National Severe Weather Preparedness Week. March 2 - March 8.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/com/weatherreadynation/news/130304_swpw_risk.html#.UxS0IV4oPyd
My, how quickly we forget all the accurate predictions.
I'm just glad we dodged the bullet, and I'll leave it at that.
Forgive me for being positive. As Steve Martin would say, well excuuuuuuuuuuuse meeeeeeeee.
Now I can get back to clearing the glacier from my driveway with no new snow on top....
I agree Andy, though I think some are too enthusiastic regarding storms, I think that predicting the weather is NOT a job that I would enjoy - so many changeable variables and an audience with so much riding on your predictions - and so very quick to criticize when you miss it.... tough job.. and then we are fortunate to have Bryan, who was not into the hype and whose accuracy seems so much better... :)
Well, the final prediction was that we would get up to 2". I think that was correct. The weather pattern moved and the forecasters adjusted their forecast based on the changing data. Seems OK to me.
JR, I told you. Buy a new snow shovel and some salt: No snow. I contributed as well, buying some salt on Friday.
That's like the power of my umbrella when the weather is warmer. Seems like whenever I'm carrying it, it never rains.
When I don't have it, here comes the downpour and I get drenched.
One of those Murphy's Laws, I suppose.
And now as this thread comes full circle, you can see why i say it's so crazy to talk snow amounts 5 days in advance LOL.
Andy, that's one powerful umbrella!! - please let me know when you have forgotten it!!
My sister outside of DC got the works- snow and ice. She asked if we got anything here. I told her all of us in Northern NJ blew hard at the same time and moved it south;)
I'll have to start tweeting .... ooooo-noooo, forgot the umbrella today, batten down the hatches.
Of course, when I'm in Allentown, Pa., it might be different weather than Hackettstown.
Whenever I'm in Baltimore, it is usually about 10 degrees warmer than H-town. Today, they got the snow we didn't get.
Winter snow totals across the east. Pretty damn impressive...
BTW with only about a 1/2" of snow in the last 2 weeks things have really quieted down. My gut feeling though is that this pattern is destined to give us a big March storm and probably also something decent in April. Of course it's March and it will get warmer by default, but generally speaking these below normal temps show no end in sight. Walpack, NJ has dipped below zero 26 times this winter. 2 short of the record set back in the 1960s.
What a Winter it's been. Here are the final snow fall accumulations for the last storm. I'm tired of these last couple under performing storms, bring on Spring!!!
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=PNS
On the flipside look at the snow less Iditarod sled dog race in Alaska:
http://www.adn.com/2014/03/03/3354917/martin-buser-again-charges-ahead.html
March-May long term NWS forecast (always just a model with variable accuracy) shows we are in the "normal" (equal chances for deviations + or -) in regards to temperature and precipitation. Just March shows 33% chance of below normal temperature and precipitation "normal".
March is definitely notorious for big storms, not always snow of course. I think it will take one to really break down this pattern we've been in and move forward with spring. Next Weds/Thurs bears watching at this point.
Someone should open a bear thread. I expect they too have had a very long and cold winter and are going to be very, very hungry when they start moving about.
The bears are reading. They need to know when to come of out hibernation. Watch out because they will be eat anything in their path after this winter.
Damn deer are coming right up to the house to nosh on our shrubs. More than usual.
The bears are already out- Came across one when I was helping look for that black lab
The Bears have been out all winter. Budd Lake residents have been reporting sitings since late January.
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